Can Russia destabilize the Balkans?

So could Russia destabilize the situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina? Yes, Moscow has long been preparing for this: it trained local militants, special police units, and provided weapons.

Moscow is provoking separatist movements in Republika Srpska through its puppet, Milorad Dodik. Last year, Dodik initiated the adoption of the Declaration of Constitutional Principles, which will primarily lead to the withdrawal of Republika Srpska from the united army of Bosnia and Herzegovina, as well as special services, tax and judicial systems. The local parliament voted in favor.

In a word, the conflict is quite possible.

The ground for a possible separation has already been prepared, especially given the continuing problems with segregation in schools based on ethnicity, inequality in voting rights, and anti-government activities of the local Orthodox Church.

Moreover, up to 30 armed paramilitary structures operate in Bosnia and Herzegovina and Republika Srpska, 16 of which are in Republika Srpska. For every inhabitant of the federation (the total population is 3.5 million people), there are about 34 weapons.

In a word, the conflict is quite possible. Will it be successful though? What can Russia actually offer the Bosnian Serbs besides secession? Nothing. Is Moscow now able to finance a conditionally “independent” state? No. Can it turn the Republika Srpska into certain areas of Donetsk and Luhansk? Again no, because Bosnia and Herzegovina are surrounded by NATO countries. Moreover, both NATO and the EU have the opportunity to react instantly if the situation is undermined.

Can the conflict spread to other countries of the Western Balkans, particularly, to Serbia and Montenegro? This may be the case if the EU and NATO do nothing. Then the situation will become catastrophic, as in addition to Russia and regional players, Turkey may join the military confrontation, wishing to regain its influence in the Balkans.

Western intervention

If the West opposes the Kremlin, Moscow can organize street clashes, provocations and terrorist threats, but it will not be able to undermine the Balkans. Even with Dodik in charge.

Meanwhile, Serbian leader Aleksandar Vučić, who had been dependent on Russian gas, repeatedly declared his readiness to restore Greater Serbia, trying to distance himself from the leader of the Republika Srpska radicals. The reason is simple: Vučić does not want the Serbs to completely lose the chance to join the EU.

He does not want to be left alone with Vladimir Putin. Unless the Kremlin manages to intimidate him, like Lukashenko, by starting a revolution like the one in Yugoslavia.

At the same time, there is the Prime Minister of Hungary, Victor Orbán, who wants the destruction of Bosnia and Herzegovina, the secession of the Republika Srpska, in order to gain more influence on North Macedonia, anti-European politicians there and on the EU itself. In fact, Orbán seeks to become the main antagonist of the EU, in favor of autocrats from Russia and China.

Blackmail for EU membership

But still, Turković's statement on EU membership for Bosnia and Herzegovina amounts to blackmail. The fact is that over the past eight years, Bosnia and Herzegovina has failed to gain candidate status, and has scant chance in the coming years. It does not meet any EU criteria, and couldn't even complete the European Commission questionnaire. The Foreign Minister is well aware of all this.

Just as she is aware that Russia will not care whether the country is a candidate or not if it wants to destabilize the entire region. Moscow will only consider whether someone there can decisively oppose them. Bosnia and Herzegovina will not join the EU as long as there is a weak governmental and economic system, conflict within the state, people like Dodik, and as long as Russia has influence there.