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Geopolitics

ARABICA - A Daily Shot Of What the Arab World is Saying/Hearing/Sharing

ARABICA - A Daily Shot Of What the Arab World is Saying/Hearing/Sharing
Kristen Gillespie

A R A B I C A ارابيكا


EGYPT: PAST & FUTURE

*This survey polled more than 22,000 Egyptians to discover public attitudes about the upcoming March 19th referendum on constitutional amendments, whichwould loosen the grip of the longtime ruling National Democratic Party over the entire political process (from presidential down to municipal elections). Question 4 asks, "Will you vote yes or no" to the proposed constitutional amendments? A total of 35 percent say yes, 50 percent say no, 13 percent have not decided. Question 5 asks whether the referendum process will be fair and free of vote rigging. Forty-two percent say no, 33 percent say yes and 23 percent aren't sure.

*A political cartoon posted by Egyptian opposition leader Wael Ghonim called "The Three Knights' shows the former head of Hosni Mubarak's ruling party, Safwat Sharif, Zakaria Azmi, the former head of Mubarak's staff who was reported by Egyptian papers as recently being caught shredding documents in the Cairo presidential palace, and Mubarak confidante Ahmed Shafiq, who stepped down as prime minister following relentless protests. Ghonim calls for all three to be put on trial for "corrupting political life in Egypt and destroying the dignity of the people."

VIRAL COURAGE

* A young member of a Syrian tribe in the remote eastern desert town Deir a-Zor posted a video on YouTube calling on the public to take to the streets in order to gain the right to free speech and the right to live a dignified, peaceful life "without the interference of the state-security services." Faisal Fahad Andlus says he understands the risk of making a public statement. "I know what kind of effect posting this video will have on my future, my life, my family's life, on my friends and everyone I know," he says. "The citizen is not allowed to speak… but the country has fallen into corruption, the country has fallen into chaos… and many other things that we already know."

COMFORTING THE COMFORTABLE

*London-based, Saudi-owned A-Sharq Al-Awsat daily newspaper, generally one of the most respected sources for Middle Eastern news, begins a story on the Saudi advisory council (Majlis a-Shoura) with this: "Following its session on Sunday, the Saudi Majlis a-Shoura, headed by the sheikh and doctor Abdullah bin Mohammed bin Ibrahim al-Sheikh, the head of the council, congratulated the Saudi leadership on behalf of the Saudi people for ‘protecting and preserving national security."" Continuing in formal Arabic, the article goes on to quote various senior members of the al-Saud family congratulating themselves and the public for being fortunate enough to live in a society in which "there is no separation between the leadership and citizens," in the words of Prince Sultan bin Salman, the powerful governor of Riyadh province. The Saudi leadership clearly is looking to send a message to the public, the spiraling financial markets and the world that, despite percolating pockets of pro-democracy dissent, the country does not face the same threats to stability as has occurred elsewhere in the Arab world.

March 14, 2011


photo credit: illustir


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Geopolitics

Why Lula Is Doubling Down On His Ambiguous Stance On Russia And China

Though he campaigned for his return to the Brazilian presidency as a pro-Western reformer, since coming into office Lula da Silva has reverted to the classic positioning of a 20th century Latin American leftist.

Image of Brazilian President Lula holding a microphone and speaking at a seminar.

Brazilian President Lula during the Strategic Seminar for the Brazilian Economy.

Lula Marques/Agência PT
Marcelo Cantelmi

-Analysis-

BRASÍLIA — One hundred days into his third presidential term, Brazil's Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has made the war in distant Ukraine into his government's cause célèbre. Observers like The Economist are wondering if this is because of diplomacy or naivety — or both.

Why, one wonders, has Brazil's socialist president waded into the Ukrainian quagmire, inclining toward the Russian version of events? Lula says he is restoring Brazil to its proper place in world affairs, which it enjoyed 20 years ago in his first two terms. Nostalgia — or a glamorizing vision of those days — is perhaps blinding him to the pitfalls of today. Domestic challenges could soon make him even less perceptive.

Lula was elected over his right-wing predecessor Jair Bolsonaro by a tiny margin, as shown by the fact that he lacks a parliamentary majority and works with a center-right cabinet. He can be said to have been chosen simply as a less radical option, as the middle class tired of Bolsonaro's antics, fanaticism and misogyny. While campaigning, Lula seemed to have understood that Brazilians did not want a 20th-century-style, leftist leader.

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