Geopolitics

ARABICA - A Daily Shot Of What the Arab World is Saying/Hearing/Sharing

ARABICA - A Daily Shot Of What the Arab World is Saying/Hearing/Sharing

Reports from Libya indicate that leader Muammar Gaddafi is quickly losing control of several cities around the country, "especially in the east, which is under the full control of protesters," according to website Almoslim.net

A R A B I C A ارابيكا

By Kristen Gillespie

FEET ON THE GROUND

*Reports from Libya indicate that leader Muammar Gaddafi is quickly losing control of several cities around the country, "especially in the east, which is under the full control of protesters," according to website Almoslim.net

*AFP picked up a report from the Libyan Quryana news site that a military fighter jet crashed on Wednesday, with the pilot and co-pilot parachuting out after refusing orders to bomb the restive Libyan city of Benghazi.

MONEY MATTERS

*The Egyptian government froze the assets of the Mubarak family this week and sent out a request to Western embassies to lobby judicial officials to freeze any wealth that may be in their countries. The extent of the former president's net worth is not known, but what is clear is that it did not come from his salary: Just $2,000 base salary per month. With housing allowance and other benefits factored in, his salary totals $4,100 every month. Assuming that salary was in place over the 30 years of his rule, Mubarak legitimately would have earned $1,476,000. How he earned up to $70 billion is not known, as presidents by law cannot engage in private businesses while in office.

A KING'S COMMITTEE

*News website "Kul al-Urdun" reports that Jordan's government cabinet approved the formation of a national dialogue committee of union leaders, political opponents and other civil society institutions "to reach a consensus on political reform and laws relating to public freedoms." Though committees are often the place where Jordanian initiatives go to die, the Twittersphere reacted optimistically to the news.

*@aymanhyasat: "Political reform and a parliament that represents the people will lead to the monitoring and accountability of corruption."

*@samihtoukan: "An excellent step on the part of the government to form a national dialogue committee. Let it be the beginning of real change in Jordan.

ARAB HUMOR

*This beggars mockup is buzzing on Facebook showing former President Hosni Mubarak and his wife, Suzanne, former Tunisian President Zeinedin Ben Ali and the possibly future ex-leader of Libya, Muammar Gadaffi.

The sign "curses anyone who rules after we do," and then adds this wry kicker: "Donations in dollars, please."

*After Gaddafi's often incoherent rant on state television Tuesday night, this joke (شعار المظاهرات في ليبيا:

" الشعب.. يريد ..تفسير.. الخطاب) is making the email rounds, a play on the now-ubiquitous phrase, The people want the regime to fall: "Slogan seen in Libya: The people want an interpreter for the speech."

*Google exec-cum-democracy icon Wael Ghonim tweeted a picture of what he believes is another small sign of change in Egypt: an orderly line to board a minibus.

Feb. 23, 2011

photo credit: illustir

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Geopolitics

Iran-Saudi Arabia Rivalry May Be Set To Ease, Or Get Much Worse

The Saudis may be awaiting the outcome of Iran's nuclear talks with the West, to see whether Tehran will moderate its regional policies, or lash out like never before.

Military parade in Tehran, Iran, on Oct. 3

-Analysis-

LONDON — The Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh said earlier this month that Iranian and Saudi negotiators had so far had four rounds of "continuous" talks, though both sides had agreed to keep them private. The talks are to ease fraught relations between Iran's radical Shia regime and the Saudi kingdom, a key Western ally in the Middle East.

Iran's Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian has said that the talks were going in the right direction, while an Iranian trade official was recently hopeful these might even allow trade opportunities for Iranian businessmen in Saudi Arabia. As the broadcaster France 24 observed separately, it will take more than positive signals to heal a five-year-rift and decades of mutual suspicions.


Agence France-Presse news agency, meanwhile, has cited an unnamed French diplomat as saying that Saudi Arabia wants to end its costly discord with Tehran. The sides may already have agreed to reopen consular offices. For Saudi Arabia, the costs include its war on Iran-backed Houthis rebels fighting an UN-recognized government in next-door Yemen.

The role of the nuclear pact

Bilateral relations were severed in January 2016, after regime militiamen stormed the Saudi embassy in Tehran. Amirabdollahian was then the deputy foreign minister for Arab affairs. In 2019, he told the website Iranian Diplomacy that Saudi Arabia had taken measures vis-a-vis Iran's nuclear pact with the world powers.

It's unlikely Ali Khamenei will tolerate the Saudi kingdom's rising power in the region.

He said "the Saudis' insane conduct toward [the pact] led them to conclude that they must prevent [its implementation] in a peaceful environment ... I think the Saudis are quite deluded, and their delusion consists in thinking that Trump is an opportunity for them to place themselves on the path of conflict with the Islamic Republic while relying on Trump." He meant the administration led by the U.S. President Donald J.Trump, which was hostile to Iran's regime. This, he said, "is not how we view Saudi Arabia. I think Yemen should have been a big lesson for the Saudis."

The minister was effectively admitting the Houthis were the Islamic Republic's tool for getting back at Saudi Arabia.

Yet in the past two years, both sides have taken steps to improve relations, without firm results as yet. Nor is the situation likely to change this time.

Photo of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in 2020

Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in 2020

commons.wikimedia.org

Riyadh's warming relations with Israel

Iran's former ambassador in Lebanon, Ahmad Dastmalchian, told the ILNA news agency in Tehran that Saudi Arabia is doing Israel's bidding in the region, and has "entrusted its national security, and life and death to Tel Aviv." Riyadh, he said, had been financing a good many "security and political projects in the region," or acting as a "logistical supplier."

The United States, said Dastmalchian, has "in turn tried to provide intelligence and security backing, while Israel has simply followed its own interests in all this."

Furthermore, it seems unlikely Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei will tolerate, even in this weak period of his leadership, the kingdom's rising power in the region and beyond, and especially its financial clout. He is usually disparaging when he speaks of Riyadh's princely rulers. In 2017, he compared them to "dairy cows," saying, "the idiots think that by giving money and aid, they can attract the goodwill of Islam's enemies."

Iranian regime officials are hopeful of moving toward better diplomatic ties and a reopening of embassies. Yet the balance of power between the sides began to change in Riyadh's favor years ago. For the kingdom's power has shifted from relying mostly on arms, to economic and political clout. The countries might have had peaceful relations before in considerably quieter, and more equitable, conditions than today's acute clash of interests.

If nuclear talks break down, Iran's regime may become more aggressive.

Beyond this, the Abraham Accord or reconciliation of Arab states and Israel has been possible thanks to the green light that the Saudis gave their regional partners, and it is a considerable political and ideological defeat for the Islamic Republic.

Assuming all Houthis follow Tehran's instructions — and they may not — improved ties may curb attacks on Saudi interests and aid its economy. Tehran will also benefit from no longer having to support them. Unlike Iran's regime, the Saudis are not pressed for cash or resources and could even offer the Houthis a better deal. Presently, they may consider it more convenient to keep the softer approach toward Tehran.

For if nuclear talks with the West break down, Iran's regime may become more aggressive, and as experience has shown, tensions often prompt a renewal of missile or drone attacks on the Saudis, on tankers and on foreign shipping. Riyadh must have a way of keeping the Tehran regime quiet, in a distinctly unquiet time.

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