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Geopolitics

Amid Global Chaos, The World Needs A New Governance Model

A Palestinian man stands amid ruins in Beit Hanoun in the northern Gaza Strip
A Palestinian man stands amid ruins in Beit Hanoun in the northern Gaza Strip
Laurence Daziano*

-OpEd-

PARIS — Here we are amid a global rise in military conflicts and political tensions — wars in the Middle East, Ukraine, the exclusion of Russia from the G8, conflicts in the South China Sea, Argentina's debt default, among others. A century after the start of World War I, the planet seems to have succumbed to geopolitical dysfunction, with the new emerging powers front and center.

For the following three reasons, the major risks then are also geopolitical, and more specifically economic.

First, the emerging countries, however motley, do subscribe to a common vision of the world. They belive Western countries have dominated the world economy for too long, all the while imposing their vision on the rest of the globe.

The humiliation of China after the Opium Wars, European colonization, and finally American domination symbolized by the monetary supremacy of the dollar have all left their marks. The BRICS countries are united in questioning a global order that dates back to 1945. China and Brazil are aggregating new powers (South Africa, Nigeria, Indonesia, Mexico, Vietnam) as they continue to contest Western supremacy. At the next UN Climate Change Conference, to be held in Paris next year, rich countries that want to decrease greenhouse gas emissions will face a China determined to defend its right to develop freely.

Second, the formidable growth of the BRICS countries over the past decade — and particularly China emerging as the world’s second-largest economy — has turned the old economic order on its head. The reservoirs of growth and liquidity are now in the emerging countries. With the exception of the United States — which has advantages such as a growing population, the dollar as global currency, and an unmatched entrepreneurial climate (witness Google, Amazon, Facebook and Apple) — the Western world is experiencing relative decline in its economic, demographic and geopolitical situation.

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Mercosur and BRICS presidents in 2014 — Photo: Casa Rosada

While China's Central Bank has $2,500 billion in liquidity ready to be invested in the world, Western countries are saddled with explosive sovereign debt that severely hinders their growth prospects.

Finally, the accumulation of geopolitical risks essentially mark — in the absence of a real Cold War — at least a cool war. This cool war reveals, on one hand, fundamental fractures inside the countries themselves, such as the South China Sea conflict between China and Vietnam, or the religious wars between Sunnis and Shias in the Middle East.

On the other hand, it is playing out against a backdrop of globalization, which means that the BRICS countries are confronting Western nations on economic and financial ground. The creation of the BRICS New Development Bank, designed to compete with the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, demonstrates this.

Since 2008's global financial crisis, the world has been experiencing profound change. The reality is that it's no longer enough to try and "plug the gaps." A new world in which the ascension of emerging powers is accorded the greatest importance must be created.

Perhaps a new global governance body, responsible for world public property such as water and climate, should be organized. At the outset, this organization could include members of the G20 along with associated countries. It could be subject to a basic agreement with new emerging powers on global issues such as the World Trade Organization, currency and climate.

More than ever, the West must be inventive to build world leadership with the emerging nations and thus avoid a "cool war" between North and South.

*Daziano Laurence, senior lecturer in economics at Sciences Po, is a member of the scientific board of the Foundation for Political Innovation.

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FOCUS: Russia-Ukraine War

That Man In Mariupol: Is Putin Using A Body Double To Avoid Public Appearances?

Putin really is meeting with Xi in Moscow — we know that. But there are credible experts saying that the person who showed up in Mariupol the day before was someone else — the latest report that the Russian president uses a doppelganger for meetings and appearances.

screen grab of Putin in a dark down jacket

During the visit to Mariupol, the Presidential office only released screen grabs of a video

Russian President Press Office/TASS via ZUMA
Anna Akage

Have no doubt, the Vladimir Putin we’re seeing alongside Xi Jinping this week is the real Vladimir Putin. But it’s a question that is being asked after a range of credible experts have accused the Russian president of sending a body double for a high-profile visit this past weekend in the occupied Ukrainian city of Mariupol.

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Reports and conspiracy theories have circulated in the past about the Russian leader using a stand-in because of health or security issues. But the reaction to the Kremlin leader's trip to Mariupol is the first time that multiple credible sources — including those who’ve spent time with him in the past — have cast doubt on the identity of the man who showed up in the southeastern Ukrainian city that Russia took over last spring after a months-long siege.

Russian opposition politician Gennady Gudkov is among those who confidently claim that a Putin look-alike, or rather one of his look-alikes, was in the Ukrainian city.

"Now that there is a war going on, I don't rule out the possibility that someone strongly resembling or disguised as Putin is playing his role," Gudkov said.

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