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Pierre Haski

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photo in front of flags Andrzej Duda and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky
FOCUS: Russia-Ukraine War

Pride Or Politics? Why Poland Suddenly Turned Its Back On Ukraine

Poland has taken President Zelensky's criticism at the UN very badly, and has decided to not supply new arms to Ukraine. One man in the Kremlin couldn't be more pleased.

-Analysis-

PARIS — Who could have imagined that the weakest link in support of Ukraine would be Poland? Since the start of Russia's invasion, Warsaw's commitment to Kyiv has been unwavering — initially driven above all by its unbound hostility towards Moscow.

That steadfast support of its neighbor is over now, and in a big way.

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The announcement in Warsaw that Polish arms deliveries to Ukraine were to be halted stunned all, and was accompanied by derogatory statements by Polish President Andrzej Duda towards Ukraine's leaders. He compared Ukraine to a desperate drowning man who would drag down those who tried to save him. Duda was also considered the most reasonable of the Polish populists — so that's the mood.

Poland had shown itself to be uncompromising in its support for Ukraine, and had even given lessons to more timid European countries on several occasions.

So why the U-turn? First of all, there are difficult general elections in Poland on October 15, and it's clear that the Law and Justice Party (PiS) in power in Warsaw will do everything possible to win.

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Low-angle shot of three police officers standing in front of the Armenian Government Building in Yerevan on Sept. 19
Geopolitics

The Nagorno-Karabakh Debacle: Bad News For Putin Or Set Up For A Coup In Armenia?

It's been a whirlwind 24 hours in the Armenian enclave, whose sudden surrender is reshaping the power dynamics in the volatile Caucasus region, leaving lingering questions about the future of a region long under the Russian sphere of influence.

-Analysis-

It happened quickly, much faster than anyone could have imagined. It took the Azerbaijani army just 24 hours to force the Armenian enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh to surrender. The fighting, which claimed about 100 lives, ended Wednesday when the leaders of the breakaway region accepted Baku's conditions.

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Thus ends the self-proclaimed "Republic of Artsakh" — the name that the separatists gave to Nagorno-Karabakh.

How can we explain such a speedy defeat, given that this crisis has been going on for nearly three decades and has already triggered two high-intensity wars, in 1994 and 2020? The answer is simple: the Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh backed themselves into a corner.

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Photo of statues exchanging a frozen handshake
Geopolitics

A U.S.-Iran $6 Billion Prisoner Exchange: Ransom Or Realpolitik?

With $6 billion freed up to go in the coffers of the corrupt and repressive regime in Tehran, nobody is happy. But sometimes there is no alternative to the imperfect nature of international diplomacy.

-Analysis-

PARIS — We find ourselves in the kind of scenario John Le Carré would have written about: five prisoners on one side, five on the other, brought to the same place at the same time for an exchange of freedom — simultaneously, $6 billion are transferred to bank accounts. The significant difference is that Cold War prisoner exchanges of Le Carré stories usually took place in Berlin; here, we are in Doha, Qatar, and the prisoners are American and Iranian.

The agreement carried out Monday is making a big splash. Principally because it has been a long time since there have been positive news between Washington and Tehran, and one can legitimately wonder if there will be any repercussions on the impasse regarding the Iranian nuclear issue.

But this exchange is also controversial: it has its critics in the United States who accuse the Biden administration of paying a "ransom" and putting all Americans at risk.

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Photograph of migrants who have recently arrived to Lampedusa, standing in line as they wait to be transferred someplace else.
Migrant Lives

Lampedusa, The Far Right's Favorite European Island

The European migrant crisis is once again making headlines, this time from the small island of Lampedusa, Italy. It exposes not only the far right's eagerness to exploit the issue of immigration, but also the delicate balance of power in electoral terms.

-Analysis-

PARIS — Europe is facing a new test of its unity and strength. In recent years, it had to tackle challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This time, the test comes from the tiny Italian island of Lampedusa.

This 20 square-kilometer island saw more migrants arrive last week than it has inhabitants, some 8500 people, largely from Tunisia, arriving on 200 boats. While this is a large number for the island to handle, it's s important to have perspective before using terms such as "invasion." We are far from the numbers seen in 2015 when one million migrants arrived, particularly from Syria.

The issue is humanitarian, but also, ultimately, political. It challenges the hard line on immigration of Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, and her coalition that spans from center-right to far-right allies. The arrival of migrants en masse serves as an ideal opportunity for political exploitation as the campaign for the European elections begins. It also disrupts the shaky migration policy of the European Union and the agreement narrowly reached in June.

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photo of putin and kim in front of a red guard rail
Geopolitics

Putin & Kim: What Happens When Two Pariahs Have Nothing Left To Lose

North Korea lends its full support to Russia's war in Ukraine, and will supply ammunition to Moscow, which in return will help Kim Jong-un with his space ambitions. With the whiff of a Cold War alliance, it shows how two regimes that have become so isolated they multiply the risks for the rest of the world.

-Analysis-

There's a feeling of nostalgia watching the meeting between Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un at the Vostochny cosmodrome in Russia's Far East.

To hear the third descendant of North Korea's communist dynasty tell the Russian president that they were fighting imperialism together recalls a past that seemed long forgotten.

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It reminds us of how Joseph Stalin backed the founder of Pyongyang's ruling dynasty, Kim Il Sung, the current leader's grandfather, in his quest to take over Korea. Since succeeding his father 11 years ago, Kim Jong-un has looked to follow the model of his grandfather.

There's no doubt that North Korea's talented propaganda team will make good use of this anti-imperialism remake, even if times and men have changed. Seen from Pyongyang, not so much. But beyond the symbols, which have their importance, this meeting may have tangible consequences.

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Black-and-white portrait of Elon Musk, with lines of code in the background
Future

Is There Any Way To Rein In The Power Of Big Tech?

A new biography of the Tesla, X (formerly Twitter) and Space X boss reveals that Elon Musk prevented the Ukrainian army from attacking the Russian fleet in Crimea last year, by limiting the beam of his Starlink satellites. Unchecked power is a problem.

This article was updated Sept. 14, 2023 at 12:20 p.m

-OpEd-

PARIS — Nothing Elon Musk does leaves us indifferent. The billionaire is often admired for his audacity, and regularly criticized for his attitude and some of his decisions.

A biography of the founder and CEO of Tesla and Space X, came out today in the United States — 688 pages published by Simon & Schuster and written by William Isaacson (the renowned biographer of Steve Jobs and Albert Einstein).

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One revelation from this book is making headlines, and it's a big one. Elon Musk — brace yourselves — prevented the Ukrainian army from destroying the Russian Black Sea fleet last year.

A bit of context: Starlink, the communications and internet satellite constellation owned by Musk, initially enabled Ukraine to escape Russian blackout attempts.

But when the Ukrainian army decided to send naval drones to destroy Russian ships anchored in Crimea, it found that the signal was blocked. And Starlink refused to extend it to Crimea, because, according to Issacson, Musk feared it would trigger World War III.

It's dizzying, and raises serious questions.

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Low-angle shot of a man walking through a field carrying two Palestinian flags, with smoke in the background
Geopolitics

Where To Look When The Very Idea Of Peace Is Gone?

The signing of the Oslo Accords 30 years ago was followed by a failure that set back the very idea of peace between Israelis and Palestinians. A look back at this historic episode and the lessons we can learn from it today.

-Analysis-

PARIS — Thirty years ago to the day, I was standing in Jerusalem's Old City, near the Jaffa Gate. Two young Palestinians were putting up a poster of Yasser Arafat when an Israeli guard appeared.

Everyone froze in fear, thinking a confrontation was about to happen. But the soldiers went on their way without a care in the world for the young Palestinians. Arafat's face appeared on a wall in Jerusalem.

A few hours later, thousands of miles away, on the White House lawn, the famous handshake took place between the leader of the Palestine Liberation Organization and Israeli leaders Yitzhak Rabin and Shimon Peres, overseen by U.S. President Bill Clinton.

They had just signed the Oslo Accords, which they hoped would put an end to a century of conflict — just like the scene of détente I had witnessed in Jerusalem.

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photo of people carrying aid
Geopolitics

Why Morocco Still Won't Accept Earthquake Aid From France?

Time is the most precious resource when it comes to disaster relief, and yet French teams have been left waiting for Morocco's approval for their aid. Looking at recent tensions might explain why the country is hesitating on accepting help in a time of such dire need.

Updated September 12, 2023 at 1:20 p.m.

-Analysis-

PARIS — Major humanitarian disasters can sometimes provide an opportunity to overcome hostilities between nations – but they can also be missed opportunities.

The earthquake that struck Morocco on Friday night has had a significant impact in France, not only due to the large Franco-Moroccan community here, but also because of the longstanding human connection between France and its former Maghreb protectorate.

Yet 72 hours after the disaster, the offers of assistance from the French government, including those from Emmanuel Macron himself, had still not received a response from Rabat. Meanwhile, Morocco had given the green light to relief efforts from Qatar, Tunisia and Spain. Spain is the only European country with 56 military rescuers already on the ground.

France possesses undeniable expertise and resources in the field of emergency relief, and if there is one area where every minute counts, it is the search for survivors. By Tuesday, the death toll had topped 2,800. Yet French teams, including search dogs and equipment, are still awaiting clearance to deploy from French soil. The Americans find themselves in a similar situation.

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Image of Chinese president xi Jinping
Geopolitics

Xi Jinping's G20 Absence — And Risks Of A Splintering World

There will be no Vladimir Putin or Xi Jinping at this weekend's summit of the world's 20 leading economies in New Delhi: a symbol of the fragmentation of the world that has accelerated since Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

-Analysis-

If ever a symbol of the divisions in today's world was needed, the summit of the world's 20 leading economies, the G20, offers it to us on a silver platter.

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A vessel  sails within the ''grain corridor'', Odesa, southern Ukraine.
FOCUS: Russia-Ukraine War

Battle For The Danube? Putin Risks Pushing Ukraine War Into NATO Territory

In recent months, Moscow has intensified its attacks on Ukrainian grain export routes that are dangerously close to NATO member Romania. Is Putin playing with fire?

-Analysis-

One day, perhaps, there will be a movie about "The Battle of the Danube," much like René Clément directed The Battle of the Rails in 1946, about the French railway workers' resistance during World War II. But for now, it's a war, in its most brutal form: a war to prevent Ukraine from exporting its grains and cereals, which part of the world needs for sustenance.

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On Monday, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan met with Vladimir Putin in Sochi, on the shores of the Black Sea, to convince him to reconsider the cereal agreement he had denounced in July. In vain. Even for Erdogan, Putin did not yield. He only offered to supply one million tons of Russian cereals, via Turkey, to six African countries allied with Moscow, such as Mali or Eritrea.

The Russian blockade thus keeps preventing Ukraine from exporting its cereals, its primary source of wealth, through the most natural route: from the port of Odessa via the Black Sea. Only four ships have managed to pass since July — a mere drop in the ocean.

Hence, the search for an alternative route remains, and this is where the war takes a worrying turn.

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Photo of a phone showing the new controversial map of China, with a Chinese flag as a backdrop
Geopolitics

Make No Mistake, The Hawks Are Running China

China released a new map where it borrows strips of lands from its neighbors. Although this is far from being the first time the country is involved in territorial disputes, Beijing's growing military shows it has the power (and will?) to try to make it a reality.

-Analysis-

PARIS — Imagine if tomorrow, one of France's neighbors published a map that showed entire swathes of French territory as its own. And did the same with many other neighbors. That is, in simple terms, what China did last week — and as you can image, its neighbors are not pleased at all.

The map, published by China's Ministry of Natural Resources and circulated on social media, has drawn condemnation from all of China's neighbors: Malaysia, the Philippines, Vietnam, Indonesia, and of course the special case of Taiwan, which Beijing considers to be a stray part of its own territory.

But the strongest reaction came from India, after two disputed Himalayan regions were presented as being part of China. Narendra Modi's government responded yesterday with a show of military force on the borders with Pakistan and China.

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Photograph of Syrians taking part in a demonstration against the Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's regime
Geopolitics

The Brave Return Of Syria's Opposition Sends Assad Running Back To Russia And Iran

Syria is positioned to return to the geopolitical fold in the Arab world, but the political structure inside the country is still fractured, facing protests from its citizens and the need to call in the Russian air force and Iranian backers.

-Analysis-

PARIS — When a country drops off from the news radar, it doesn't necessarily mean that all is fine. Syria made headlines for years with the brutal repression of the 2011 uprising and the war against the Islamic State; nowadays, it's hardly mentioned anymore, even if the state of the country is still dire.

Yet over the past few weeks, a new rumbling of reports about the Syrian situation has begun. In the southern part of the country, major demonstrations began in the city of Suweida, initially against rising fuel prices before evolving into more political protests. The protests spread to the city of Daraa, where the 2011 revolution had originally begun, as well as other localities. Among the popular demands were questions about the fate of those who've disappeared over the last decade, a pressing issue for millions of Syrians.

Videos that have circulated show significant sized crowds, reminiscent of the scenes from the early days of the 2011 uprising during the "Arab Spring." Considering the repression that followed, it is impressive to once again see the population taking to the streets to defend their rights, facing a regime that has shown it will not hesitate to brutally suppress them.

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