Initial reports suggested that Iran may have played a part in facilitating the assault. The Wall Street Journalreported claims from Hamas and Hezbollah, a Lebanon-based Shia terrorist group, that Iran “helped plan Hamas’s Saturday surprise attack on Israel and gave the green light...” These claims are being used to support a narrative that is thus far unsubstantiated.
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Middle East expert Gregg Carlstrom wrote on X in response that Hamas would not have launched an attack of this magnitude without alerting its partners, though he added that "coordination is not the same thing as Iran giving Hamas an order to launch a mass attack on Israel.”
Indeed, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Sunday he has "not yet seen evidence that Iran directed or was behind this particular attack, but there is certainly a long relationship." Iran's mission to the United Nations has denied any involvement.
Others instead are pointing at Russia, accused of involvement in the Hamas operation, though concrete evidence has thus far not been cited.
Writing in the Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth, retired British Army Colonel Richard Kemp said that “unwilling to engage directly with NATO, Putin is instead fueling conflicts between Azerbaijan and Armenia, Serbia and Kosovo, West Africa, and now Israel.”
Chairman of the Estonian Parliament's Foreign Affairs Committee, Marko Mihkelson, told Estonian National Television that the involvement of Russia and Iran in the attack is indicated by its timing as well as the fact that “both Moscow and Tehran maintain contacts with Hamas.”
Russia-Hamas relations are longstanding and active, with Moscow hosting a Hamas delegation in March this year. They met with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, who subsequently warned that Hamas' "patience" with Israel was "running out." Hamas leaders also visited Russia in May and September 2022.
Kremlin wants to shift attention
Russia has also long maintained a close working relationship with Iran and its network of partner militant organizations—especially Hezbollah in Lebanon—across the Middle East, seeing them as an alternative power base capable of challenging regional U.S. and allied interests. Moscow has drawn closer to Iran since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
The American Institute for the Study of War has suggested that Russia might benefit from the shift in international attention away from its atrocities in Ukraine and towards the deteriorating situation in Israel and the Palestinian territories.
"The Kremlin is already and will likely continue to exploit the Hamas attacks in Israel to advance several information operations intended to reduce U.S. and Western support and attention to Ukraine," the Washington-based think tank said on Saturday.
A file photo of a rally at the Palestinian embassy in Moscow in support of Gaza after it was hit by Israeli missile strikes in May 2021.
Andrei Berets/TASS/ZUMA
Wagner training?
Israel is expected to launch a ground assault into Gaza in the coming days, while tensions remain high in the occupied West Bank and along the border with Lebanon, where Hezbollah enjoys de facto control.
Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Maria Zakharova, blamed "the West" for blocking peace-making efforts between Russia, the U.S., the European Union and the United Nations for the outbreak of renewed violence in the Middle East.
Some pro-Ukrainian accounts on X, formerly known as Twitter, claimed without substantiation that the Wagner Group mercenary organization may have trained the Hamas units that launched the attack. Wagner has no known presence in the Palestinian territories, while Hamas' assault units are highly experienced and trained with the assistance of outside powers like Iran.
Russia's own Interest
This said, evidence of Russian involvement in Hamas’ attack remains limited and some experts believe it may well be in Russia’s interest for them to remain cautious with regards to developments in the Middle East. After all, by aggravating Israel, a nuclear power in its own right, Moscow risks the possibility that Israel would “give lethal weapons to Kyiv” Hanna Notte, director for Eurasia at the James Martin Centre for Nonproliferation Studies, wrote on X.
There's a large Russian diaspora in Israel.
Furthermore, while Russia’s relations with Israel have been tenuous in recent years, mutual cooperation, intelligence sharing, and trade remain extensive. There is also a large Russian diaspora in Israel (one that predates the war in Ukraine).
If there were any large-scale war in the Middle East region, “Russia would not have the capacity to deal with it”, Notte added, given its losses and dwindling troop numbers in Ukraine.
However, should the U.S. come down hard on the side of Israel, something which is looking more and more likely, Russia may “further drift into Iran’s orbit.” Then, anything is possible.
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