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TOPIC: zelensky

FOCUS: Russia-Ukraine War

Will Winter Crack The Western Alliance In Ukraine?

Kyiv's troops are facing bitter cold and snow on the frontline, but the coming season also poses longer term political questions for Ukraine's allies. It may be now or never.

-Analysis-

PARIS — Weather is a weapon of war. And one place where that’s undoubtedly true right now is Ukraine. A record cold wave has gripped the country in recent days, with violent winds in the south that have cut off electricity of areas under both Russian and Ukrainian control. It's a nightmare for troops on the frontline, and survival itself is at stake, with supplies and movement cut off.

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This is the reality of winter warfare in this part of Europe, and important in both tactical and strategic terms. What Ukraine fears most in these circumstances are Russian missile or drone attacks on energy infrastructures, designed to plunge civilian populations into cold and darkness.

The Ukrainian General Staff took advantage of NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg's visit to Kyiv to ask the West to provide as many air defense systems as possible to protect these vital infrastructures. According to Kyiv, 90% of Russian missile launches are intercepted; but Ukraine claims that Moscow has received new weapon deliveries from North Korea and Iran, and has large amounts of stocks to strike Ukraine in the coming weeks.

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Hamas Says Truce “Close,” New U.S. Aid Package To Kyiv, Brazil’s Hottest Day

👋 Tere!*

Welcome to Tuesday, where Israel is yet to comment on Hamas’ leader saying a truce deal is “approaching,” the drama multiplies at OpenAI over the firing of CEO Sam Altman, and Joe Biden makes a fowl blunder. Meanwhile, Lizaveta Tsybulina in Russian independent news outlet Vazhnyye Istorii reports on Moscow’s efforts to cull the onslaught of data breaches led by Ukrainian hackers since the beginning of the Russian invasion.

[*Estonian]

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Ukraine Has A Recruitment Problem — And Zelensky Doesn't Want To Talk About It

Some of the Ukrainian Armed Forces units are at only 70% of their intended strength. But President Zelensky is unwilling to raise the question of mass mobilization. The result is a parallel reality, with more recruitment coming from rural areas and lower classes, and some urbanites feeling victory is not too far, and their sacrifice is not needed.

Updated Nov. 16, 2023 at 6:25 p.m.

KYIV — Walking through the center of Kyiv in the fall of 2023 can make you feel like you’ve gone back in time. The atmosphere in the city seems to transport you to either a carefree past or a promising future.

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You'll find bustling cafes filled with people enjoying oat milk lattes, business lunches, and people zipping around on scooters.

Amongst these images of ‘normal life’, the "Field of Memory" on Maidan Square, adorned with thousands of flags bearing the names or call signs of fallen soldiers, serves as a poignant reminder of the ongoing war. Lights and billboards of the Armed Forces of Ukraine beckon citizens to "join their ranks." But these often go ignored.

Military chaplain Andriy Zelinskyi has diagnosed this situation as "discursive incompatibility."

“An entirely self-contained and substantial illusion of an alternative reality has emerged,” he says. “A reality that acts as an escape from the pain, wounds, and losses of war. This alternative reality poses a significant threat to the unity needed to effectively resist Russia.”

One segment of society has been in the trenches for a year and a half, witnessing the daily horrors of destruction, injury, and the loss of comrades. Meanwhile, another segment lives on in cities like Kyiv, Lviv, or Odesa, offering donations, or just thinking about contributing, while attempting to distance themselves from the war as much as possible.

The government has also played a role in creating and maintaining this alternative reality. In its public communication, full-scale mobilization is a taboo. An honest conversation about mobilization as a guarantee for survival and eventual victory seems "out of place" when elections are looming.

Periodically, cracks in this alternative reality emerge. For instance, a publication in TIME magazine highlighted that in some military branches, personnel shortages were more critical than those of weapons and ammunition. The article was dismissed by Ukrainian authorities as nonsense.

In the meantime, without waiting for the transition to full-scale mobilization, some military units are taking matters into their own hands, actively seeking and motivating individuals who are willing to don a military uniform and bear arms.

Following the challenging defense of Bakhmut and Zaporizhzhia, it became clear that the Ukrainian military was in dire need of reinforcements.

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More Gazans Forced To Evacuate, Biden/Xi Accord, Kardashian Konfusion

👋 Mbote!*

Welcome to Thursday, where Israel opposition leader Yair Lapid calls for Netanyahu to resign, U.S. and China pledge to reopen military communication and fight fentanyl together, and a prestigious exam puts South Korea at a standstill. Meanwhile, Diarrassouba Losseni Togossy in Dakar-based newspaper Financial Afrik cautions against the downside risks of the energy transition in Africa.

[*Lingala, DRC and Republic of the Congo]

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FOCUS: Russia-Ukraine War
Pavlo Kazarin

Ukraine's Biggest Challenge This Winter: Staying United

Last winter, many Ukrainians believed the only factor delaying the war's end was the weather. A year later, the country faces a very different situation, with a stalled counteroffensive ahead of the coming cold days creating fertile ground to lose precious national unity.

-Analysis-

KYIV — The winter ahead is likely to be extremely difficult for Ukrainians.

And this year, the challenges extend beyond energy network resources, which have already been adequately covered, and reserves of anti-missile systems. The real issue is that Ukraine is heading into this winter with far lower reserves of psychological resilience and greater collective fatigue than ever before.

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Last winter was preceded by a series of military triumphs, with the Ukrainian army successfully pushing the enemy out of Kyiv, Chernihiv, and Sumy regions. They reclaimed Snake Island, initiated the Kharkiv counteroffensive, and liberated Kherson by the end of February. During that time, the country held onto the belief that the only factor delaying the war's end was the weather.

The prevailing sentiment was that with the arrival of warmer weather in the spring, the enemy would be pushed back and eventually defeated.

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FOCUS: Russia-Ukraine War
Roman Romaniuk & Roman Kravets

Ukraine And The West: Here's How Zelensky Must Tweak The Script

With the Middle East burning and domestic politics splintering, Ukraine is now just one of multiple priorities for the West. For President Zelensky, it's time to move past the narrative of the past two years.

-Analysis-

KYIV — Ukraine is entering a new phase of the war and a new stage of relations with its partners. Even Time magazine's "symbol of 2022," Volodymyr Zelensky, is finding it increasingly challenging to stay in the global news spotlight.

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Nevertheless, diplomats in Zelensky's team believe that interest in him remains high. One of them told Ukrainian news site Pravda that, "We have Zelensky, and there will be no other president until the end of the war. As a country, we must place our trust in him. Fortunately, Zelensky continues to be a superstar for most Americans. Even now, when other topics like the Israel conflict have emerged, and we are getting less screen time, he is still a celebrity."

While the Ukrainian war is still one of the most important topics for the West, it is now one of many. The sudden shift in focus to the Middle East following aggravated fighting in Israel is a clear example of this.

"The honeymoon phase in our relationship is over,” conceded an influential member of the Ukrainian president's team involved in international affairs. “Now, we need to pay more attention to our partners' recommendations and consider them carefully in order to secure further aid and assistance."

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Geopolitics
Andriy Sinyavskyi & Serhii Sydorenko

In The Middle East, Ukraine Must Walk A Tightrope Between The U.S. And Europe

The EU must find a way to negotiate uncomfortable disagreements within its ranks. Ukraine can't be seen as taking an unequivocal stand in support of any one side either.

-Analysis-

KYIV — Just a few weeks ago, the European Union had hoped to restart peace negotiations between Israel and the Palestinian Authority through a new Middle East peace initiative offering incentives for both sides.

Of course, we now know these plans were derailed on October 7 when Hamas fired thousands of rockets from Gaza towards Israeli cities, and a heavily armed group invaded southern Israel, killing more than 1,200 civilians and taking some 200 hostages.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is now warning of a prolonged conflict.

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The future of the Palestinian Authority, based in Ramallah in the West Bank, also now hinges on the unfolding events. A return to the previous "status quo," in which Hamas essentially controlled Gaza, appears unlikely.

However, it's not just Israel and Palestine that will have to adapt. The European Union, in particular, faces a challenging decision. The EU's policy towards the region has been centered on peacekeeping and direct support for Palestine, and Europe has been the main donor to Palestine for the past decade. The violent terrorist attacks in Israel, openly supported by Ramallah, make changes in EU policy inevitable.

Yet, there is a lack of unity within the EU about what these changes should entail because not all member countries are prepared to align with Israel.

In this complex landscape, Ukraine also needs to formulate its policy regarding the region. This must take into account the positions of the EU, which Ukraine is integrated with; the U.S., on which Ukraine's security depends; Israel, a fellow fighter against terrorism; and the Arab states, which Kyiv is actively supporting.

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In The News
Jakob Mieszkowski-Lapping, Emma Albright and Anne-Sophie Goninet

Palestinians Trapped In Northern Gaza Between Israeli And Hamas Orders — Mideast War, Day 7

A full siege is on in Gaza, and there's little room for escape for civilians.

Updated Oct. 13, at 5:55 p.m.

The reality of Palestinian civilians caught in the middle of warring parties has never been more evident than right now in northern Gaza.

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FOCUS: Russia-Ukraine War
Cameron Manley

Why Zelensky Is Betting Everything On Ukraine's Support Of Israel

Equating the Hamas attack on Israel with the Russian invasion of Ukraine is a way to keep attention, and aid, coming for his nation's war. But the situations are quite different, and Zelensky's clear stance on the side of Israel risks losing both attention and support.

-Analysis-

The surprise Hamas attack on Israel has sparked a major war in the Middle East, and shifted global attention away from Ukraine for the first time since February 2022.

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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has not hidden his fear that the developments in the Middle East could threaten military support for Ukraine, making a surprise visit to Brussels on Wednesday where NATO defense ministers were meeting. “I want to be honest with you: Of course it is a dangerous situation for people in Ukraine,” he told reporters at his first visit to NATO headquarters since Russia’s full-scale invasion.

The sudden focus on the Middle East comes as doubts were already rising about so-called "war fatigue" among Western allies, including political instability in Poland and Republicans in the U.S. Congress threatening to cut off aid for Kyiv. “If there are other tragedies in the world, there is only a certain amount of military support to share," Zelensky said. "And Russia hopes that support will be divided.”

Aware that there is little prospect of a quick war in Gaza, and the world's attention swinging fully back to Ukraine, Zelensky has apparently made a clear choice to pick a side in the Middle East. He has compared the Israeli victims of the Hamas terror attack with Ukrainians targeted by the Russian invaders.

While there are innocent lives lost in both cases, and the Western coalition is currently being united in Israel's favor as it's done for Ukraine, it's unclear if the comparison will work to Zelensky's favor in the long run.

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Geopolitics
Pierre Haski

How The Chaos In Washington Emboldens Moscow And Beijing

The deep dysfunction of American democracy is bringing smiles (and big ideas) to autocratic regimes around the world, convinced that it is a sign of the West in decline.

-Analysis-

PARIS — Imagine you are in Vladimir Putin’s office in the Kremlin, or with Xi Jinping at Chinese government headquarters in Beijing, and you're watching political events unfold in the United States.

You see the President of the United States entrenched in a political crisis that is preventing him from passing additional aid to Ukraine, and is facing the threat of a government shutdown. The Speaker of the House has just been impeached by members of his own party. Pure political chaos, in other words, is threatening to paralyze a global superpower.

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In Moscow and Beijing, these images are enough to reinforce their view, which has been ingrained for years, that the West is facing irreversible decline. Rightly or wrongly, this view dictates their military, diplomatic and political calculations, and could lead them to make risky decisions as a result.

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In The News
Michelle Courtois, Valeria Berghinz and Anne-Sophie Goninet

Fuel Depot Blast Kills 20 In Karabakh, Seoul Weapons, T. Swift Buzz

👋 Goedemorgen!*

Welcome to Tuesday, where an explosion at a fuel depot in Nagorno-Karabakh kills 20, South Korea flexed its military hardware, and Taylor Swift’s NFL rumored beau goes viral. Meanwhile, in independent Latin American journal Volcánicas, Sher Herrera considers the roots and ramifications of the “white savior syndrome” and how it lives on in modern times.

[*Flemish]

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FOCUS: Russia-Ukraine War
Cameron Manley

How The Moscow Drone Attacks Are Quietly Targeting Putin's Inner Circle

Drone air attacks continue in Russia's capital, with evidence that Ukraine has figured out how to target certain buildings belonging to Vladimir Putin's entourage. It's a clear message from Kyiv.

Another drone attack rocked central Moscow on Wednesday — and again the significance of Ukraine striking anywhere in the Russian capital should not be underestimated. It’s the sixth attack of its kind since July 30. Yet the importance of the summer barrage may go even further: the target Wednesday was a building known to belong to an important member of the entourage of President Vladimir Putin.

The Kremlin appears to want to downplay and obfuscate information about the actual targets. Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin reported no casualties,but said that several windows had been blown in on a neighboring five-story building. The Defense Ministry said the drone had been suppressed by electronic warfare and collided with the building after losing control.

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