When the world gets closer.

We help you see farther.

Sign up to our expressly international daily newsletter.

TOPIC: xi jinping

FOCUS: Russia-Ukraine War

How Much Does Xi Jinping Care About Putin's ICC Arrest Warrant?

After the International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for Vladimir Putin, Chinese President Xi Jinping arrives in Moscow for a three-day visit. How far will he be willing to go to support Putin, a fugitive from international justice?

-Analysis-

PARIS — Since Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin said last year that the friendship between their nations was "boundless," the world has wondered where the limits really lie. The Chinese president's three-day visit to Russia, which began Monday, gives us an opportunity to assess.

Xi's visit is important in many ways, particularly because the International Criminal Court has just issued an arrest warrant against Putin for his role in forcibly sending thousands of Ukrainian children to Russia. For Putin, there could be no better response to this international court, which he does not recognize, than to appear alongside the president of a great country, which, like Russia, is also a permanent member of the UN Security Council. How isolated can Putin really be, when the leader of 1.5 billion people in China comes to visit?

Watch VideoShow less

Xi In Moscow, Banking Shares Sink, Bangladesh Bathing

👋 Sawubona!*

Welcome to Monday, where Chinese leader Xi Jinping lands in Moscow for talks with Vladimir Putin, banking stocks and bonds hit a new low despite UBS’ rescue of Credit Suisse, and about one million pilgrims take part in a “sacred bath” ceremony in Bangladesh. Meanwhile, Paul Molga in French daily Les Echos looks at the vicious circle between climate change and earthquakes.

[*Zulu, South Africa]

Keep reading...Show less

Xi Jinping's Mission In Moscow, And The Limits Of The Russia-China Alliance

As Xi's closely watched visit to Moscow begins, China and Russia may seem like strategic partners, but it has ultimately shown to be a marriage of convenience. And both countries are naturally competitors, wary if the other grows stronger.

This article has been updated March 20, 12:00 p.m. CST

-Analysis-

Long before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese Premier Xi Jinping were growing closer. China’s goal? To revamp the current world order, significantly weaken the West and its leaders, and to become the world-dominating figurehead over and above the United States.

Stay up-to-date with the latest on the Russia-Ukraine war, with our exclusive international coverage.

Sign up to our free daily newsletter.

Russia’s war in Ukraine has become an essential element of this plan to destabilize the global situation.

When the West began imposing stringent sanctions on Russia, China instead chose to economically support Putin and left its markets open to accept raw materials from Russia. But don’t think this means China is Putin’s lapdog. Quite the contrary: Beijing has never helped Moscow to its own detriment, not wishing to fall under the punitive measures of the U.S. and Europe.

The fundamental dynamic has not changed ahead of Xi Jinping's arrival on Monday for his first visit to Moscow since the war began. Beyond the photo ops and pleasant words that Xi and Putin are sure to share, the Russian-Chinese alliance continues to be looked at skeptically amongst the elite in both Beijing and Moscow.

China was not expecting Russia’s plans to occupy Ukraine in a matter of days to fail and as a result, China’s aim to destabilize the West alongside its Russian partner failed.

Add to this the various alliances in the West emerging against Beijing and fears for China’s economy on home turf is beginning to grow.

Keep reading...Show less

Yes, Xi Jinping Is Now More Powerful Than Mao Zedong Ever Was

After being re-elected as head of the Communist Party last year, the Chinese leader has been unanimously re-elected to another five-year term as head of state. Now, wielding more power than any other past Chinese communist leader, he wants to accelerate the rise of Chinese influence around the world.

-Analysis-

BEIJING — Chinese Communist Party leader Xi Jinping has been re-elected to a third five-year term at the head of the world's second largest economic power. Nobody was surprised.

The vote took place during a legislative assembly convened to rubber stamp decisions of the authoritarian power, during which 2,952 parliamentarians unanimously approved Xi's re-election before rising, in perfect choreography, to offer a prolonged standing ovation to their leader. As usual, Xi remained completely neutral in the face of the enthusiasm.

His victory was a mere formality after his re-election last fall as the head of the all-powerful party, which controls all of the country's political institutions, and after legislative amendments to erase term limits that would have forced him out.

Xi Jinping, who took over the presidency in 2013, "is now the most powerful leader in the history of the People's Republic, since its founding in 1949. Institutionally, he holds even more power than Mao Zedong," says Suisheng Zhao, a professor and Chinese foreign policy expert at the University of Denver.

Keep reading...Show less
Economy
Pierre Haski

Will China Invade Taiwan? Volkswagen's €180 Billion Bet Says 'No'

German automobile giant Volkswagen will invest billions in China to manufacture electric vehicles. It has deemed the risk of China invading Taiwan "unlikely," a peek into the calculations that private-sector conglomerates make, just like state actors.

-Analysis-

PARIS — Automaker Volkswagen has decided to accelerate its investments in electric vehicles: €180 billion, mainly in the United States and China. The Financial Times has reported that the company's management evaluated the risk and concluded that China would not invade Taiwan in the short term. It decided as a result that it was reasonable to invest in China, one of its main markets.

It's an interesting vantage point to undertand events. Governments around the world are questioning China's intentions towards the island of Taiwan, which Beijing claims as its own. What is less known is that large companies also need to calculate geopolitical risk and conduct their own analyses.

A few months after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the President of the European Chamber of Commerce in China, which represents thousands of companies, sounded the alarm in an interview with an economic magazine. Joerg Wuttke mentioned the trauma of Western companies forced to leave Russia and lose everything, and warned Chinese authorities that the same thing could happen if China invaded Taiwan.

Watch VideoShow less
Geopolitics
Pierre Haski

How China's Iran-Saudi Diplomacy Stunned The World — Starting With Washington

The move is seen as a coup for China in its efforts to assert itself as a global superpower, while also presenting itself as a responsible and peaceful nation in the eyes of the non-Western world. The agreement is expected to help reduce tensions in the region and revive hopes for peace in Yemen, where the two countries have been fighting a proxy war.

-Analysis-

PARIS — There is the agreement itself, and there are the circumstances surrounding the agreement. Saudi Arabia and Iran had severed diplomatic ties in 2016 after the execution of a Saudi Shiite leader. The restoration of relations between these two rival Middle East powers is therefore no small feat.

To receive Eyes on U.S. each week in your inbox, sign up here.

But even more intriguing, more spectacular, and totally unexpected is the role played by China. For it was in Beijing that Friday's agreement was signed. The photo of China's top diplomat, State Councillor Wang Yi, surrounded by the Saudi and Iranian ministers, in front of a large Chinese painting in Beijing, attests to a world that has suddenly changed.

This is undoubtedly the first time that China has taken on the role of mediator in the Middle East, a stance that has electrified the region and beyond since the announcement of the agreement.

Watch VideoShow less
Geopolitics
Gregor Schwung

China's Military Intentions Are Clear — And Arming Taiwan Is The Only Deterrence

China is spending more money on weapons and defense than ever. The reason is evident: Xi Jinping wants to take Taiwan. Europe should follow the U.S. and support Taipei militarily as the only way to deter Beijing from war.

-OpEd-

BERLIN — Fear is never the best advisor.

It is, however, an understandable emotion when China announces the biggest increase in its defense budget in memory. And when Beijing does so after siding with Russia in the Ukraine war with its supposed "peace plan" and justifying the increase with an alleged "escalating oppression" of China in the world.

The budget plan unveiled by outgoing Premier Li Keqiang calls for a 7.2% increase in defense spending. That's more than in previous years — and just the official figure.

Experts estimate the true spending is much higher, as Beijing finances its military through numerous shadow budgets.

Watch VideoShow less
FOCUS: Russia-Ukraine War
Pierre Haski

The G20's Futility On Ukraine Is Even Worse Than It Seems

It's not just about the current diplomatic impasse between Russia and the West, it's about the future — and that means China.

Watch VideoShow less
Geopolitics
Pierre Haski

Why All Sides Are Calling For Peace Talks In Ukraine, And Nobody Means It

Russia says it's willing to negotiate for peace in Ukraine, but won't make any territorial concessions; meanwhile, China presents a half-baked peace plan. It's a masterclass in talking out of both sides of your mouth.

-Analysis-

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said this week that Russia was in favor of negotiation to end the war in Ukraine. But in the same breath, he added that there would be "no compromise" on what he described as "new territorial realities" — that is, the Russian annexation of parts of Ukraine.

Stay up-to-date with the latest on the Russia-Ukraine war, with our exclusive international coverage.

Sign up to our free daily newsletter.

A perfect example of how to say you are ready to negotiate, while also saying you are not.

This trickery neatly sums up the situation. At this stage, no one is truly prepared to negotiate, but at the same time, they must act as if they are, to avoid looking like the one standing in the way of peace. This applies to Russia, which is still trying to use force to take over the entire Donbas region — only some of which remains under its control.

Watch VideoShow less
FOCUS: Russia-Ukraine War
Oleksandr Demchenko

Why Beijing Needs Ukraine To Lose

As the Chinese government puts together what it calls a peace plan for Ukraine, it's also considering sending weapons to Russia. The Biden administration warns China will "pay a real price" if it helps Russia, but Beijing's real goal is to weaken the United States.

-Analysis-

KYIV — Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has said he is ready to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping in a bid to stop Beijing from supplying Moscow with weapons. But China has no interest in Ukraine winning the war. Why?

Xi is only thinking about the future world order being established on its terms, and the defeat of Ukraine and its allies, particularly the United States, would create an opportunity for Beijing to absorb Taiwan and increase its influence in the Pacific.

Stay up-to-date with the latest on the Russia-Ukraine war, with our exclusive international coverage.

Sign up to our free daily newsletter.

China is the main beneficiary of the full-scale war that Russia has unleashed against Ukraine, viewing the confrontation as a tool to weaken the West.

Like Russian President Vladimir Putin, Chinese authorities were convinced that Russian troops could capture Kyiv in three days and take control of most of Ukraine within a month. This is probably what Putin and Xi agreed when they met during the Beijing Olympics in Feb. 2022: the Russian leader promised to destroy Ukraine, weakening Europe and eroding the trust other democratic states had in the United States — and in exchange, the Chinese leader assured Putin that he would back Moscow.

Instead, what was hailed as "No. 2 army of the world" was forced to retreat. On Sept. 15, as Ukrainian forces were liberating the Kharkiv region, Putin met Xi in Samarkand, Uzbekistan. After returning to Moscow, Putin announced a partial mobilization.

Watch VideoShow less
Geopolitics
Dominique Moïsi

Big Business, No Red Phone: Why U.S. v. China Is A Different Kind Of Cold War

To some, tensions between the U.S. and China look like a remake of the U.S.-Soviet Cold War. Yet the West's nemesis this time is more sophisticated and tied to us commercially in ways Moscow never was. There are, however, also new kinds of danger.

-Analysis-

PARIS If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck ... And yet. The relationship between China and the United States looks more and more like the Cold War of the past between the United States and the USSR, but it is something wholly different.

That difference of course begins with economic co-dependency. Bilateral trade between the two countries reached $690 billion in 2022 — a record — with a deficit that increased by $30 billion, to the detriment of the United States. The world, and even more its Asian neighbors, may be afraid of Chinese ambitions, but it is increasingly dependent on China economically — just as the Middle Kingdom depends, for its growth, on its foreign exchanges.

No, we are far from the Cold War between the United States and the Soviet Union.

The destruction of the Chinese spy balloon may evoke the aerial incidents that preceded the Cuban Missile Crisis in October 1962. And it is legitimate to wonder whether Taiwan will be a new Cuba. But, for the sake of historical rigor and geopolitical understanding – one must point out the significant differences between the “real” Cold War of yesterday and the “strange” Cold War of today.

First, Americans understood the USSR much better than they understand China. George Kennan's 1947 essay "The Sources of Soviet Conduct," published in Foreign Affairs, formulated the basis for the strategy of "containment." Today, in the United States (or elsewhere), there is no comparable analysis of China — no equivalent of this foundational text.

Watch VideoShow less
Geopolitics
Pierre Haski

Balloons? UFOs? The Real Story Is The Perilous State Of U.S.-China Relations

Let's call it the "war of the balloons": Four unidentified flying objects have now been shot down by fighter jets in one week over North America. But the mystery of the details should not hide the bigger picture of how far U.S.-Sino relations have sunk in the past 10 days.

-Analysis-

PARIS — The first was the infamous Chinese spy balloon discovered over Montana; the next three, whose nature and nationality remain unknown, were spotted and destroyed — one above Alaska, the second above Canada, the third above Michigan.

Canadian aircraft also participated in the operation as part of NORAD, the joint U.S.-Canadian air defense command for North America.

Hoping to save face or avoid blame, or just not to be outdone, the Chinese government said yesterday that a suspicious balloon had been spotted in the Yellow Sea, and that the military was preparing to shoot it down.

Watch VideoShow less