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TOPIC: war

FOCUS: Russia-Ukraine War

Bakhmut Diary: Death And Life From Inside Ukraine's 243rd Battalion

A 39-year-old fighter codenamed "Alaska," a member of the Ukrainian Battalion 243, has decided to share his story in the battles of Bakhmut and other key frontline positions in eastern Ukraine over the past six months.

Last fall, Ukraine’s 243rd Battalion fought in the early days of the battle for Bakhmut, which has become a decisive clash that continues to claim huge numbers of lives every day.

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The battalion held back the Russian advance near the towns of Klishchiivka and Opytny, under constant artillery fire. This is the story of how four of its fighters — Alaska, Dill, Wind and Braid — were completely surrounded in a closed hangar near Opytny. Cut off from their squad and under heavy artillery fire, they stood firm, even when it looked like all hope was lost.

The 39-year-old fighter codenamed "Alaska," whose real name is Viktor Bordyuzha, tells the story in his own words:

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Hating Russians, Trusting Ourselves: The Hard Questions For Post-War Ukraine

A year after Russia's invasion of her homeland, Ukrainian writer Anna Akage looks back at recent history, but, above all, forward to a future where her nation must not only win the war, but not lose the victory.

-Essay-

It sure is nice to be on the right side of history. But ask anyone who is this "lucky," and they would gladly trade it for peace and security, for boredom, for some simple certainties about tomorrow.

I can't remember life in Ukraine ever being dull, say my mother and the people of her generation. Same for my grandmother and her neighbors — and my great-grandmother and those in her village said it too. No one remembers the last time we were bored in Ukraine, the last time we were focused on where to go for dinner or on vacation – to live, not just survive.

This is our country, our fate. They say every nation has its misfortune. Ukraine is unlucky with its geography: we have sea, mountains and precious fertile soil. Important trade routes traverse our country.

But to the northeast, we have a real-life Mordor, an inescapable evil neighbor with visions of world domination.

Revolution, war, famine. The terror of communism, then the hungry 1990s. Relative calm under Leonid Danylovych Kuchma that, alas, was not bound to last.

The Orange Revolution, students beaten, the Heavenly Hundred – martyrs of the 2014 revolution. Broken concrete, ashes, burning tires. A shattered helmet, covered in blood. Coffins. The Revolution of Dignity. Donbas, Crimea, Minsk, Ilovaysk. Checkpoints. "We didn't come here; we stayed here." And here we are, today. One full year. Like in a kaleidoscope. War.

Of course, we need to talk about yesterday. To analyze and draw conclusions, to avoid repeating the mistakes of the past. But today, I want to look at tomorrow.

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Defining Victory In Ukraine: The Real Meaning Of Macron's "Not Crushing" Russia

French President Emmanuel Macron turned heads by saying that his objective was to defeat Russia, without "crushing" it. This diverges with the objectives of Ukraine and other allies. It's a question that will ultimately be answered on the battlefield.

-Analysis-

PARIS — French President Emmanuel Macron sometimes describes himself as "the master of clocks" — Of course he cannot claim that title in the war in Ukraine, where the timing of the fighting must obey to other "masters."

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Still, time management is crucial in any military conflict, and the French President mentioned it in his speech at the Munich Security Conference this past weekend, and in the interview he gave to France Inter public radio afterwards. Timing is a topic that weighs on the destiny of the war, on the outlines of a possible peace, on the rest of the world that suffers the consequences.

In his speech, just a few days before the one-year anniversary of the Russian invasion, Macron said he was prepared for a prolonged conflict in Ukraine. But he immediately added, "By saying this, I do not wish it. But above all, if we do not wish it, we must collectively be credible in our ability to endure this effort."

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Why It's Now Almost Impossible For Ukraine To Win The War

It’s hard to admit, but every day, the chance of a Ukrainian victory moves further away. Kyiv is running out of troops and equipment. The enemy is better prepared and has significant reinforcements at its disposal. It’s no surprise, then, that the talk among Western diplomats is of a truce.

-Analysis-

At the start of the year, Ukraine seemed optimistic about its prospects in the terrible war of Russian aggression that has been inflicted on the country for almost a year now.

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Society
Elke Hartmann-Wolff

War In The Age Of Tik Tok, A Parental Guide To Your Child's Mental Health

Many children are struggling with what feels like a constant state of crisis. Parents are right to be concerned, but they should not try to shield kids. Instead, it's all about communication.

One afternoon in the Swabian Alps in Germany, Anna Jüttler is driving along with her sons Maris, 10, and Silvan, 8, in the back. They are chatting about school and what they’d like to eat tonight when the news comes on the car radio: Russian attacks continue on Ukraine. The German army is ill-equipped for battle.

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One week later, Jüttler thinks back to that car journey. She looked in the rear-view mirror and saw in her sons’ eyes that “nothing is the same”. Her younger son bombarded her with questions about why the German army didn’t have any “good rockets and planes”. His older brother joined in.

His friend had said there was going to be a Third World War. Was that true? Would there be a nuclear attack?

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This Happened

This Happened—December 23: The Soviets Invade Afghanistan

On this day in 1979, the Soviet Union intervened in support of the Afghan communist government in its conflict with anti-communist Muslim guerrillas during the Afghan War, after Afghanistan’s centrist government was overthrown by left-wing military officers led by Nur Mohammad Taraki.

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In The News
Anna Akage

Putin In Belarus: Is Lukashenko Ready To Enter The Ukraine War?

Five days after Minsk's troops began amassing at the Belarus-Ukraine border, Russian President Vladimir Putin has arrived for an impromptu summit with Alexander Lukashenko. Belarus' strongman is increasingly seen as no longer having the option to say No to entering Putin's war against Ukraine.

This article has been updated on Dec. 19, 2022 at 4:40 p.m. CET with news developments

Russian President Vladimir Putin landed in Belarus on Monday, raising concerns that he had come to seal the country's leader Alexander Lukashenko's commitment to join the war against Ukraine.

International observers said the objective of Putin's visit — his first to the country since 2019 — is to push Belarus to send troops across the border into Ukraine, which he's so far avoided doing, despite allowing Russia to launch air and ground attacks from its territory.

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Ahead of his meeting with Putin, Lukashenko said that the country would decide for itself if it would go to war – but there were signs last week that he was preparing to help out. On Dec. 13, Belarusian troops began rapidly deploying to the Ukrainian border and the country’s defense ministry announced a “sudden inspection of combat readiness.”

The inspection finished just before Putin landed in Minsk on Monday, the Belarusian government said, as Russian media reported that troops stationed in Belarus had been ordered to start military exercises.

Over the past week, the Belaruski Gayun media has recorded increasing numbers of troops massing on the border with Ukraine.

Though such sudden exercises have occurred at other times since the beginning of the war, this time it comes amid an accumulation of signs that point to Lukashenko preparing to give final orders. Putin's visit Monday, which was announced less than 48 hours earlier, appears to confirm movement afoot.

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Russia
Aleksandr Kynev

No Putin, No Russia? Why Losing The War Wouldn't Destroy The Russian Federation

Predictions about the collapse of Russia are as old as the country itself. Yet a consistent centralization of power has gone on for decades, weakening Russia's territories and republics. The war in Ukraine changes everything and nothing.

-Analysis-

The prediction “Russia is about to fall apart” has been a mainstay of the political science-futurist genre for the 30 years since the end of the USSR and establishment of the Russian Federation.

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Now, the war with Ukraine has drastically reduced the time-frame for such apocalyptic forecasts to come true. First, because it turns out that Russia can very well lose the war; and secondly, a defeat would weaken Vladimir Putin’s regime — and who knows if he will retain power at all?

“No Putin, no Russia” is a more recent refrain.

This line of thinking says that the weakening of the central government will push the regions to act independently. Yet noted political scientist Alexander Kynev explained in an interview with Vazhnyye Istorii why he doesn't believe anything like this will happen. The collapse of Russia is unlikely even if Putin loses.

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Ideas
Dominique Moïsi

Why Ukraine-Russia Peace Talks Are Now More Impossible Than Ever

The reconquest of Kherson seemed like a turning point in the Ukraine war. But while Kyiv and the West can see it as an encouraging sign for the long-term fate of the war, it makes negotiations a veritable non-starter now. A cold, hard analysis from French geopolitical expert Dominique Moïsi.

-Analysis-

The liberation of Kherson two weeks ago brought Ukrainian forces closer to Crimea and pushed the Russian army further from Odessa. It was a strategic and symbolic turning point. The images that emerged evoke the liberation of Paris in August 1944. Although it is a show of strength from Ukraine and a sign of Russian weakness, it does not mean that the time has come for negotiations to begin.

Far from it, in fact.

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Up until the Ukrainian army retook Kherson, it was still possible to imagine that Russia and Ukraine might reach a compromise on territory, redrawing the borders as they were on Feb. 23, 2022. That is no longer the case today. For Kyiv, there is no longer any question of going back to February 2022, but rather to January 2014: before Moscow seized Crimea by force.

In nine months of war — with nearly 100,000 victims on both sides — millions of Ukrainians have been displaced, towns and cities have been systematically targeted and infrastructure has been destroyed.

Russia has committed multiple war crimes, perhaps even crimes against humanity. Unable to compete on the ground with the Ukrainian forces — who outnumber the Russians, are better equipped (thanks to Western aid) and above all are more motivated — Moscow has had no other choice than to try and bring the Ukrainian people to their knees through hunger and cold, while hoping to sow division among Kyiv’s allies.

So far, this strategy has had the opposite of the desired effect. Now that Ukraine has retaken Kherson, and after the G20 summit in Bali, Russia is more isolated than ever on the global stage.

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Geopolitics
Anna Akage

Swan Lake In Kherson? Why Russia’s Future Is Looking So Dark

Ukrainians, Russians and much of the rest of the world are still trying to make sense of Moscow’s decision last week to abandon the southern city of Kherson. Do not, for certain, underestimate the significance.

Through the fog of war, we are beginning to see more clearly the significance of the Russian army’s stunning retreat from Kherson, territory that Vladimir Putin had declared his own with an annexation ceremony just a month before.

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Yes, events are accelerating. The war in Ukraine now appears suddenly to be heading toward its inevitable conclusion, and Putin toward his demise.

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FOCUS: Russia-Ukraine War
Vladimir Solovyov

Belarus To Kazakhstan: Russia's Weakness Is A Powder Keg In Ex-Soviet Lands

Russia has always claimed to be a kind of sheriff on the territory of the former USSR, a zone the country considers as its "privileged interests." Now it has lost both strength and authority in the war with Ukraine.

Since the collapse of the USSR, thirty years ago, the post-Soviet regions regularly brought bad news to the world. This included everything from regional conflicts and civil wars to ethnic clashes and military coups. But until recently, this never had merged into one continuous stream.

In 2020 we began to see how the instability and simmering conflicts could converge and take a bloody turn: Hostilities resumed between Armenia and Azerbaijan, Belarus bubbling, with popular protests against strongman Alexander Lukashenko, border skirmishes turned deadly between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan; another coup d'état took place in Kyrgyzstan in October.

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Fast-forward to today: We are seeing how Russia's war with Ukraine has worsened the region's security.

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Russia
Christoph B. Schiltz

Here Are Four Ways Putin Could Turn The Tide In Ukraine

Ukraine's recent successes on the battlefield have put pressure on Vladimir Putin, who has launched what appear to be desperate attacks on civilians and infrastructure in response. Experts warn that it is dangerous to believe that Russia is bound to fail.

-Analysis-

Russia's airstrikes on Ukraine have continued unabated throughout the week.

More than 40 cities have been hit by Russian missiles over a period of just 24 hours, the General Staff of the Ukrainian army announced Thursday. Heavy strikes occurred in the outskirts of Kyiv for several nights in a row. Sirens wailed, people ran in panic through the darkness.

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Thirty percent of the country's energy infrastructure has now been destroyed, according to Ukrainian figures — a dramatic development as rain and cold weather are just around the corner.

Ukraine needs to urgently "defend itself against the terrible Russian attacks on civilians," NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg told the alliance's defense ministers meeting in Brussels earlier this week. The message got through.

Germany and the U.S. made new commitments to supply air defense, and a total of 15 countries signed a declaration of intent for a "European Sky Shield" in Brussels on Thursday. The goal is to "close the gaps" in air defense, said Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht.

But to be clear, as brutal as they are, the Russian missile offensives are the direct result of Ukraine's huge military gains in recent weeks.

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