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TOPIC: wagner

FOCUS: Russia-Ukraine War

Gangster Logic, Is Prigozhin Hit The Start Of Putin's Ultimate Purge?

Veterans of Wagner PMC, the mercenary group run by now-deceased Yevgeny Prigozhin, are scattered all over Russia. Many are now threatening to exact their revenge. But it is Russian President Vladimir Putin who wields the power, and there are plenty inside and outside Wagner who may be in his sights.

-Analysis-

WARSAW — It’s a country within a country, with its own military and a wide network of veterans in every large Russian city. On Telegram, many Wagner mercenaries are already making threats, saying that the killing of their leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, was the work of “traitors to Russia," who will soon face “catastrophic consequences."

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Putin on Prigozhin, Trump’s Mug, Greek Leap

👋 Chào!*

Welcome to Friday, where Vladimir Putin offers a chilling assessment of Yevgeny Priogohzin’s life and presumed death, Donald Trump’s mug shot is prime front page material and the World Track and Field Championships in Budapest offer some soaring images. We also feature a collection from Valeria Berghinz of some of the world’s most notable defunct vacation hot spots, which evoke the memories of bygone summers years after being abandoned.

[*Vietnamese]

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"Ghostwriter" — Inside Russia’s Bespoke Propaganda Campaign In Poland

As a key regional member of NATO and neighbor of Ukraine, Poland is of particular interest to the Kremlin, and the usual misinformation weapons used by Russia also feature allusions to Jews and Americans — and may now include attempts to recruit Poles by the Wagner Group.

WARSAW — “Israel, a country of less than nine million, is surrounded by one hundred million enemies. Therefore, the search for a new promised land began. It was found: in Ukraine. Here, a thousand years ago, existed the state of the Khazars, where the official religion was rabbinical Judaism, and it is to these lands that the designers of the idea of Heavenly Jerusalem want to resettle Jews ... "

The above storyline comes from a video watched on YouTube by half a million Poles, which included more than 1,000 comments, supporting its message. "Now we finally know the real cause of the war”, one wrote.

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This is a peek inside the universe of Putinophiles and other sowers of Moscow's influence — exerted not on governments, but citizens and everyday Internet users in Poland.

From at least 2016 onward, the Main Directorate of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation (GRU), has directed operation “Ghostwriter,” whose goals, according to the Polish Command of the Component of the Cyberspace Defense Forces, are “disrupting Poland’s relationship with the U.S. and NATO countries,” “disrupting Polish-Ukrainian relations,” “discrediting aid provided to Ukraine by Poland” and “creating conditions for the outbreak of social unrest in the Republic of Poland”.

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Putin And Lukashenko, Sowing Seeds Of Discord Between Ukraine And Its Ally Poland

Both Russian President Vladimir Putin and longtime ally Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko have issued statements accusing Poland of having territorial ambitions in Ukraine. It's a worrying development that opens the door to military confrontation with NATO — and the looming presence of Wagner troops isn't making things easier.

In a notable escalation of rhetoric, Russian President Vladimir Putin recently accused Poland of having territorial ambitions in Ukraine and Belarus, stating that any action taken against Belarus would be treated as an attack on Russian territory. The statement, deemed to be a reaction to Poland deploying troops to guard its eastern border, came just days after the NATO Summit in neighboring Lithuania.

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“Aggression against Belarus will mean aggression against the Russian Federation,” Putin stated at a Security Council meeting, adding that Russia “will respond to it with all means at our disposal”. He also referred to Western Polish lands as “a gift from Stalin”, stating that the Russian Federation “will remind” Warsaw of this.

According to Russian independent news site Agenstvo (agents.media), this was the first time Putin laid out a potential scenario that could serve as a justification for military confrontation between Russia and NATO.

Poland, a NATO member state, has been increasing security along its border with Belarus in response to the presence of Wagner troops within Belarus since Yevgeny Prigozhin was exiled there. A major part of the group’s mercenaries also headed to Belarus, where they set up military camps and are expected to lead joint exercises with the Belarusian army.

In March of this year, Putin stated that Russia would deploy tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus with the first warheads already delivered in June. There have also been rumors of a potential state of emergency to be declared along the border region in response to the ongoing migrant crisis, which has been taking place since 2021.

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Russia
Important Stories

What Awaits The Ex-Prisoners Recruited By Wagner? For Now, Drinking Poolside

The last of the former convicts who served under the Wagner mercenary are heading home. According to private Telegram chats of the soldiers' relatives, many are currently staying in resorts and hotels along the Black Sea awaiting pardons, and behaving badly. Some may end up staying on with Wagner in Belarus.

Before launching its aborted mutiny last month, the Wagner Group mercenaries stirred controversy by recruiting Russian convicts to serve on the frontline of the war in Ukraine. Thousands of often dangerous criminals signed up for at least a year on the front in exchange for their freedom, with a pardon from their jail sentences after their service.

But this infamous practice appears to have ended recently, with Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin now having to decide what to do with all former prisoners who served as mercenaries.

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“Project K is closed,” a Wagner representative wrote in a Telegram chat, referring to the name of the convict-recruiting program

Many of the former convicts are now in hotels in or near the coastal town of Anapa on the Black Sea, waiting for official pardons or their contracts to expire. Vazhnyye Istorii learned about this after identifying messages of relatives of mercenary ex-convicts and representatives of the group in their private chats.

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In The News
Chloé Touchard, Valeria Berghinz Anne-Sophie Goninet and Katarzyna Skiba

Auckland Shooting, Kissinger Meets Xi, Columbus Letter Returned

👋 नमस्कार*

Welcome to Thursday, where a shooting leaves two dead in Auckland as the soccer Women’s World Cup kicks off in New Zealand and Australia, Russia launches new attacks on Odessa and Mykolaiv and Italy’s got some 15th-century mail. Meanwhile, Persian-language media Kayhan-London reports on the murder of a 15-year-old girl by her parents, in the context of so-called “honor killings” in Iran.

[*Namaskār - Marathi, India]

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In The News
Katarzyna Skiba, Michelle Courtois and Marine Béguin

Putin On Wagner, Hollywood On Strike, Pets On Stage

👋 Сәлем*

Welcome to Friday, where Vladimir Putin has harsh words for the Wagner Group, Hollywood actors join screenwriters on the picket line and a dramatic video emerges of the largest Burmese python ever captured. We also look at the social media trend of “deinfluencers” who give advice to their followers about what not to buy.

[*Salem - Kazakh]

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FOCUS: Russia-Ukraine War
Pierre Haski

Why Is The “Traitor” Prigozhin Already Back In Russia?

The post-coup mystery continues with reports that Wagner founder Yevgeny Prigozhin is not, in fact, in Belarus, but in Russia. A look at what it says about Vladimir Putin's hold on power.

-Analysis-

Betrayals aren't what they used to be.

Less than a month ago, Russian President Vladimir Putin appeared on television talking about a "stab in the back."

We were already imagining the culprit's likely punishment: Novichok, the chemical poison that eliminated former spy Sergei Skripal. Some people advised Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the Wagner mercenary group who had launched an aborted coup attempt against Putin, to let someone else taste his tea before drinking it.

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Now, the Wagner boss, exiled to Belarus after his brief march on Moscow, is already back in Russia. He is reported to be in Saint Petersburg, or possibly even in the capital.

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In The News
Worldcrunch

Worldcrunch Magazine #40 — On The Way Out? After The Wagner Mutiny, Glimpses Of A Post-Putin Future

July 3 - July 9, 2023

This is the latest edition of Worldcrunch Magazine, a selection of our best articles of the week from the best international journalists, produced exclusively in English for Worldcrunch readers.

>> DISCOVER IT HERE <<

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FOCUS: Russia-Ukraine War
Anna Akage

Never Underestimate The Staying Power Of Putin's Rule-By-Farce

The excitement with which the West watched Prigozhin's failed uprising reveals the delusional hopes that somehow a Russian white (or black) knight will come to overthrow Putin. No, there's still only one way to be rid of him, argues Ukrainian writer Anna Akage.

-OpEd-

As a Ukrainian, last weekend's Wagner Group insurrection in Russia unfolded for me like a scene straight out of absurdist theater. Were my initial expectations too high? Or maybe I had never watched a real-time military uprising from my computer screen. Either way, I began to quickly understand that the scenes before us share nothing with what anyone can call logical reality.

Even if it was all so absurd, none of it surprised me — but more on that below!

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First, in one video clip, we see Yevgeny Prigozhin's fighters enter Rostov-on-Don, occupy the headquarters of the South Military Command, and capture Yunus-bek Yevkurov, the Deputy Defense Minister of Russia, and bring him to Prigozhin. The footage shows the sworn enemies having a pleasant conversation. Nobody shoots at anybody. Nobody even looks nervous.

Then another video circulates of a janitor sweeping the streets of Rostov, occupied by Russian convicts, paying no attention to the row of tanks behind her. On social networks, Vladimir Putin's opposition watches intently, eating popcorn and praying. Reports flash across our feeds of oligarchs' super-jets taking off following the president's plane getting out from Moscow. There's no FSB intelligence officers, no police, no Russian guards.

The world seemed to freeze: Will something big really happen in Russia right now? Was the war in Ukraine about to suddenly be over? I wasn't placing any bets, but I was pretty sure that after dust settled, the answer would be a clear, plain: No on all acounts

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FOCUS: Russia-Ukraine War
Vladimir Solovyov

"How I Saved Putin" — Lukashenko Emboldened, Pushes For Power Broker Role

Alexander Lukashenko recounts how he took charge of the operation to defend Moscow from Yevgeny Prigozhin, and looks to shift the region's balance of power. "I am as much a participant in these events as Putin. So if someone in Russia talks about Lukashenko mediating, there is no mediation!"

MOSCOW — Relations between Russia and Belarus have reached a new level: Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko is now stepping in to resolve internal Russian conflicts.

On Tuesday, he recounted how he had prevented a bloodbath that could have turned into a march on Moscow by Yevgeny Prigozhin and his Wagnerites mercenary forces. Along the way, he even supervised Russian federal officials and was rewarded with a commendation from Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Both Russia and Belarus continue to comment on Saturday's "march of justice" in Moscow, organized by Wagner head Yevgeny Prigozhin. The events, which Russian officials (including the president himself) called "mutiny," "treason," and "a stab in the back," ended rather quickly, but people were killed: Wagner fighters shot down several helicopters and a plane. No precise official data about the shooting has yet emerged.

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When Russian President Vladimir Putin commented on the recent events on Monday, he made a special point of thanking the leader of Belarus. "I am grateful to Belarusian President Alexander Grigorievich Lukashenko for his efforts and contribution to the peaceful resolution of the situation."

Late Tuesday, at a previously scheduled military ceremony, Lukashenko gave his first detailed accounting of this past weekend, taking credit for preventing bloodshed. "By Saturday morning at eight o'clock, I already receive alarming information about the situation in Russia. I get a report: President Putin wants to get in touch. Please. We agreed at 9:30 that we would talk at any time convenient for him. At 10:10, he called and informed me in detail about the situation in Russia," said Lukashenko.

The conversation, by all appearances, was long. Lukashenko asked Vladimir Putin to refrain from drastic actions concerning the Wagnerites marching on Moscow and volunteered to talk to Yevgeny Prigozhin.

"Listen, Sasha; it's no use," Putin said, using a nickname for the Belarus leader. "He doesn't even pick up the phone; he doesn't want to talk to anyone."

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Geopolitics
Pierre Haski

Wagner In Africa: How Prigozhin Could Also Upend Russian Foreign Policy

Prigozhin's brief insurrection will be watched closely in many African countries, where Wagner mercenaries have largely been the beachhead for Russian foreign policy. Keep an eye on a key African-Russian summit next month.

-Analysis-

PARIS — Of all the speeches made in Russia to explain, rectify or re-frame Saturday's madness, perhaps the most interesting came from Sergei Lavrov, the longtime head of Russian diplomacy. A steadfast Putin loyalist, Lavrov declared that "of course" the efforts by the Wagner Group in Mali and the Central African Republic would continue.

It's all in the "of course"... As if nothing had happened in Russia to upset Wagner's operations; as if Vladimir Putin hadn't spoken of "treason" by Wagner's boss, Yevgeny Prigozhin.

This "of course" says a lot about the need to reassure Russia's friends abroad, particularly in Africa, about the country's stability and its international operations. In this case, the latter refers to the activities of Wagner's mercenaries, who have become Russia's vanguard in regaining its influence around the world.

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But the Foreign Minister's statement is diplomatic acrobatics, raising more questions than it answers. In Bamako, Mali, and Bangui, in the Central African Republic, at any rate, they'd do better to ask the questions themselves.

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