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TOPIC: ussr

Geopolitics

How The U.S.-China Cold War Will Be Different — And Why Little Can Stop It

The just completed G7 in Hiroshima has locked both sides in the simmering Cold War in Asia into what appears an inevitable confrontation that recalls the U.S.-Soviet showdown. But there are key caveats that make both the limits and risks harder to anticipate.

-Analysis-

PARIS — In the lengthy final statement of the Hiroshima G7 summit, it is not until point 51 that China finally comes up. However, along with Ukraine, the Asian superpower was undoubtedly the top priority for both the United States and host country, Japan.

Even though they were buried within an all-purpose text, references to China have triggered a strong reaction in Beijing. "Systematic denigration," "Interference in China's internal affairs," "Regional destabilization..." The Chinese Foreign Ministry did not mince words following the G7 summit.

From Beijing's perspective, the Hiroshima summit reinforced the Cold War emerging in northeast Asia — one that is vastly different from the one that occurred between the United States and the USSR in the last century.

The statement, however, takes care to proclaim, "Our policy approaches are not designed to harm China nor do we seek to thwart China’s economic progress and development."

But everything that the Americans have decided, first under Donald Trump and now even more decisively under Joe Biden, effectively aims to slow down China's emergence as a rival to the United States.

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What Will Justice For Ukraine Look Like? The Nazi Demise Offers A Clue

Russia has just celebrated its Victory Day over Nazism. It's a good time to reflect on what retribution means, and how it's not always black and white.

KYIV — In today's Ukraine, people often recalls the Germans of the 1930s-1940s, but there are two opposing historical narratives.

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According to the first narrative, the Germans of the past are compared the Russians of today. Just like the Russians, the Germans massively supported their Fuhrer. Just like the Russians, the Germans welcomed the invasion of their army in other countries. Just like the Russians, the Germans did not want to know about the atrocities of their compatriots and diligently tried to ignore the Holocaust.

It is believed that even without being a member of Hitler's Nazi party, millions of Germans passively participated in Nazi aggression and were collectively responsible for the crimes of the Third Reich — and therefore do not deserve compassion.

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Snitch Nation: How Putin's Regime Is Getting Russians To Turn In Their Neighbors

The war in Ukraine has launched an epidemic of denunciations in Russia: 145,000 individual reports to the security services in just the first six months of the war. It's the latest evidence of the current regime's Stalinist approach.

On July 30, 1937, a secret Soviet order launched the Great Terror – a period of mass repressions during which hundreds of thousands of people were killed.

The order from dictator Joseph Stalin was dubbed, “On repressive operations of former Kulaks, criminals and other anti-Soviet elements,” and aimed to root out enemies of the Communist party by calling on citizens to denounce their neighbors to police and KGB agents, who had to meet arrest quotas set for each Soviet republic.

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In slogans, posters, work meetings, newspaper articles, books and films, official media and channels presented the denunciation of suspected enemies as every citizen’s duty to the Motherland.

Without mass participation in the search for traitors, the number of victims of repression and prisoners in camps would have been significantly lower. The Great Terror led to the arrest of 1.4 million people, and the deaths of at least 700,000 – although the real number is likely higher.

Since the beginning of the full-scale war against Ukraine, Russia and its current leader Vladimir Putin have been increasingly compared to Stalin and the Soviet Union during the era of the Great Terror. And the latest proof is in the explosion of similar denunciations by common citizens.

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Decolonization Of Ukraine: Another Way To See The Fight For The Future

Since the beginning of the Russian invasion, Ukrainians have begun a radical revision of their cultural habits and beliefs, casting off the relics of Russian colonialism. How Ukrainians see themselves and their country's past will directly affect how they fight for the future.

-Analysis-

KYIV — When Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in Feb. 2022, Ukrainians were forced to revise their cultural habits and beliefs. Music that six months ago was celebrated, suddenly became unacceptable because it came from the aggressor country. Fascination with "great Russian literature" became a thing of the past, and many regretted the lost time that could have been devoted to learning about the work of Ukrainian writers.

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As early as Jan. 2022, discussions about renaming streets and monuments became widespread in central and Southern Ukrainian cities. Now, everything is different. Almost immediately after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, citizens formed a consensus not only about the possibility of renaming streets and monuments, but also about its necessity.

All of this testifies to the intuitive request of Ukrainians for the decolonization of their own cultural narrative and historical space. But even within the country, decolonization is not fully realized. The changes taking place in Ukraine look more like a reaction to Russia's neo-imperialism. Of course, foreign countries, their opinion leaders and the public are still far from understanding the war, its causes and the transformation of Ukrainian society. This all raises the question: Has Ukraine really moved past its colonial history?

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FOCUS: Russia-Ukraine War
Boris Grozovskiy

How A 1930s Soviet Famine Targeted Ukraine — And Why It Matters More Than Ever

Ukraine and countries around the world recognize the Holodomor, the famine which killed millions of Ukrainians in the early 1930s, as a genocide caused by Soviet authorities. But Russia still refuses to admit responsibility. A new study uses agricultural records and mathematical modeling to show that the famine clearly targeted Ukrainians.

KYIV — The Holodomor was one of the greatest humanitarian disasters of the 20th century. In the course of just two years, from 1932 to 1933, between 5 and 10.8 million people died of hunger in the Soviet Union — at least 2.6 to 3.9 million of them in Ukraine alone.

Until the 1980s, the Soviet government denied that the tragedy happened at all. Modern Russian historians now agree that the famine was caused by human action. But while Ukraine, the European Parliament, the U.S. and Canada, among other countries, have all recognized Holodomor as a genocide, most Russian historians still disagree, arguing that people also died in other grain-producing regions of the Soviet Union.

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This historical dispute has strong political significance. The Ukrainian government often repeats its demand for apology and restitution from Russia, the legal successor to the USSR, for orchestrating the famine. The Kremlin says describing the Holodomor as a genocide is anti-Russian propaganda. After its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Russian forces dismantled memorials to the Holodomor in occupied cities of Mariupol and Kreminna.

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FOCUS: Russia-Ukraine War
Igar Ilyash

Alliance Or Annexation: What Are Putin's Ultimate Plans For Belarus?

Putin has stated in the past that Ukraine and Belarus should be a part of the Russian Federation. But his plans in Belarus have been postponed by war on the other neighbor, and the shrinking room for maneuver of Minsk's strongman Alexander Lukashenko

-Analysis-

MINSK — A document was recently leaked to the press that was reportedly commissioned two years ago by the Russian presidential administration: "Strategic Goals of the Russian Federation on the Belarusian Direction."

This plan provides for the complete subordination of Belarus's political, economic, and cultural life by 2030. Belarusian laws are to be brought in line with Russian regulations, the Russian language is to dominate over the Belarusian language, and the influence of "pro-Western nationalist forces" is to be limited.

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A separate section is devoted to "passportization" — that is, the issuing Russian identity documents to Belarusians under a simplified procedure. At the final stage, the plan envisages forming a common legal system, introducing a single currency, total control over the information field, completely unifying the customs and tax space, and creating a common command system of the armed forces.

Interestingly, Belarus strongman Alexander Lukashenko did not deny the reality of the document, adding that he didn't see anything outrageous in the Kremlin's plans.

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Ideas
Dominique Moïsi

"Collateral Benefit": Could Putin's Launching A Failed War Make The World Better?

Consider the inverse of "collateral damage." Envision Russia's defeat and the triumph of a democratic coalition offers reflection on the most weighty sense of costs and benefits.

-Analysis-

PARIS — The concept of collateral damage has developed in the course of so-called "asymmetrical” wars, fought between opponents considered unequal.

The U.S. drone which targeted rebel fighters in Afghanistan, and annihilated an entire family gathered for a wedding, appears to be the perfect example of collateral damage: a doubtful military gain, and a certain political cost. One might also consider the American bombing of Normandy towns around June 6, 1944 as collateral damage.

But is it possible to reverse the expression, and speak of "collateral benefits"? When applied to an armed conflict, the expression may seem shocking.

No one benefits from a war, which leaves in its trace a trail of dead, wounded and displaced people, destroyed cities or children brutally torn from their parents.

And yet the notion of "collateral benefits" is particularly applicable to the war that has been raging in Ukraine for almost a year.

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Russia
Aleksandr Kynev

No Putin, No Russia? Why Losing The War Wouldn't Destroy The Russian Federation

Predictions about the collapse of Russia are as old as the country itself. Yet a consistent centralization of power has gone on for decades, weakening Russia's territories and republics. The war in Ukraine changes everything and nothing.

-Analysis-

The prediction “Russia is about to fall apart” has been a mainstay of the political science-futurist genre for the 30 years since the end of the USSR and establishment of the Russian Federation.

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Now, the war with Ukraine has drastically reduced the time-frame for such apocalyptic forecasts to come true. First, because it turns out that Russia can very well lose the war; and secondly, a defeat would weaken Vladimir Putin’s regime — and who knows if he will retain power at all?

“No Putin, no Russia” is a more recent refrain.

This line of thinking says that the weakening of the central government will push the regions to act independently. Yet noted political scientist Alexander Kynev explained in an interview with Vazhnyye Istorii why he doesn't believe anything like this will happen. The collapse of Russia is unlikely even if Putin loses.

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Georgia
Anna Akage

Calling Georgia: Time For Russia’s Ambivalent Neighbor To Pick A Side

Unlike other neighbors in the region, leading political figures in Georgia have refrained from officially denouncing Russia's invasion. From Joseph Stalin's birthplace, it's a complicated relationship. But winding up on the wrong side of history has its consequences.

-Analysis-

Georgian Parliament Speaker Shalva Papuashvili declared last week that his nation stands in solidarity with Ukraine in its opposition to Russian aggression, and will not allow its territory to be used to circumvent the sanctions imposed against Russia.

“Unfortunately, we Georgians, Moldovans, and Ukrainians have faced this many times before,” said the 46-year-old member of the ruling Georgian Dream party, recalling Moscow’s assault in 2008 in the disputed regions that wound up annexed by pro-Russian factions. “We saw Russian tanks destroying Georgian villages and Russian planes bombing our hopes for a better future. We witnessed the expulsion of hundreds of thousands of people from their ancestral homes and saw those who fled massacres and ethnic cleansing shelter in cold basements with their children and loved ones for months and years."

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The statement was clear, strong and specific — it was also eight months late.

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Geopolitics
Pavel Lysyansky*

The 'Union State' — Inside Putin's Plans To Rebuild The USSR With A 1990s Treaty

What are Vladimir Putin's long-term goals in Ukraine? An overlooked treaty from the mid-1990s reveal that his ambitions go far beyond Ukraine to building a Russian Empire 2.0.

What does Vladimir Putin want?

One big clue is the “Union State”, a supranational organization consisting of Russia and Belarus that was founded in 1996. The union aimed to gradually create a single political, economic, military and cultural space.

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But Putin’s vision for the union doesn’t stop with Belarus. He has been quietly but diligently building the formations of the USSR 2.0 for decades.

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Ideas
Anna Akage

To The Slaughter: Why Putin Can Count On So Many Russians Mobilizing For Their Death

Ever since Russia announced a “partial mobilization” of hundreds of thousands of new recruits, we’ve seen plenty of coverage of those evading the draft. But the real story is how many untrained and under-equipped citizens will blindly follow the Kremlin’s orders.

-Analysis-

From the first days of mobilization in Russia, we have followed reports of the thousands of Russian men of conscription age rushing abroad to flee the draft: buying a one-way plane ticket, driving to the border, even trekking by foot to the safety of a neighboring country.

But this stream of thousands are negligible in the ocean of a nation of 140 million. What we haven’t read about this past week are the masses obediently receiving their summons and marching down to distribution centers.

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Some are already now sleeping on a bare floor or in the forest in a tent, waiting to be sent to a war zone with little or no training, equipment or supplies. These tens and soon hundreds of thousands will head to parts southward and westward as part of a senseless and flailing attempt to try to hold back the Ukrainian counter-offensive.

They are, in other words, marching off to the slaughter. And they know it well.

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Geopolitics
Oleksandr Demchenko

One By One, The Former Soviet Republics Are Abandoning Putin

From Kazakhstan to Kyrgyzstan, Armenia and Tajikistan, countries in Russia's orbit have refused to help him turn the tide in the Ukraine war. All (maybe even Belarus?) is coming to understand that his next step would be a complete restoration of the Soviet empire.

-Analysis-

KYIV — Virtually all of Vladimir Putin's last remaining partner countries in the region are gone from his grip. Kazakhstan, Armenia, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan have refused to help him turn the tide in the Ukraine war, because they've all come to understand that his next step would be a complete restoration of the empire, where their own sovereignty is lost.

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Before zooming in on the current state of relations in the region, and what it means for Ukraine's destiny, it's worth briefly reviewing the last 30 years of post-Soviet history.

The Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) was first created in 1992 by the Kremlin to keep former republics from fully seceding from the former Soviet sphere of influence. The plan was simple: to destroy the local Communist elite, to replace them with "their" people in the former colonies, and then return these territories — never truly considered as independent states by any Russian leadership — into its orbit.

In a word - to restore the USSR.

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