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TOPIC: ukrainian army

FOCUS: Russia-Ukraine War

War Of Attrition, Western Fatigue, U.S. Election: Clock Is Ticking On Ukraine's Fate

Russia is hoping that the West’s support for Ukraine will begin to falter. Kyiv knows this, and is therefore trying to obtain long-term aid agreements — which have the potential to determine their future. But the current Poland-Ukraine row is a troubling sign.

-Analysis-

WARSAW — It's been four months since the Ukrainian Armed Forces mounted their counteroffensive in southeastern Ukraine. The fighting is extremely difficult, and Ukrainian soldiers must make their way through kilometers of mines and fortified lands occupied by Russia.

Few would argue that Ukrainian army’s effort would be more effective if they had modern planes, including the F-16 fighter jets they were promised after several months of negotiations (they will receive the first ones in 2024, at earliest). Ukraine is also seeking long-range missiles: whether a U.S. arsenal of ATACMS missiles, which have a range of 300 kilometers, or Germany's Taurus cruise missiles with a range of over 500 kilometers. For now Washington and Berlin have balked on delivery.

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There was more bad news this week for Kyiv amid a dispute over grain exports with its neighbor and ally Poland, which announced that it wouldn't send new weapons systems to Ukraine, though it will continue to fulfill its existing deals.

But Kyiv has also been facing problems with arms that it has already been promised. In a recent interview with CNN, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that it's now been months that many of the arms Ukraine has been promised have been in an “on-their-way” status.

The Western supplies of arms to Ukraine are not only key to helping their efforts in the counteroffensive. Russia, having a numerical advantage, is trying to wage a war of attrition: wearing down Ukraine until its army has no choice but to collapse. For Radosław Sikorski, a Polish member of the European Parliament, who took part in the recent Yalta European Strategy (YES) conference in Kyiv, said the West must remember what's at stake even more when the battle hardens.

“It’s paradoxical that the human willingness to help is strongest when the victim of aggression is successful, but as soon as they start to have problems, it falls," Sikorski said. "But it is exactly this logic that we must be opposed to. Now is exactly the moment to show our true character: that we are with Ukraine until the end, and not only when things are going well.”

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Why Wars Don't Ever End — A Novelist's Notes From The Ukraine Front Line

In Warsaw-based daily Gazeta Wyborcza, Polish writer Szczepan Twardoch poses a crucial question on the front lines of the war in Ukraine: "What will you do when the war ends?" One answer struck him more than any other...

-Essay-

Even if Ukraine manages to defeat Russia, they will never agree to a loss.

Since June, I have been increasingly hearing that the war will end, which has led to several follow-up questions: What will Ukraine look like after the war? Will Volodymyr Zelensky run for president again? What will Russia be like afterwards? What will the security architecture of the two countries be?

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Over time, scholarly analyses of new strategies for victory suddenly replaced analyses of what the world would look like when the war was over.

But why? Is it because of overall fatigue with the war as a constant headline? Or maybe everyone has admitted that there may be no spectacular success for the Ukrainian counteroffensive, that there is a chance of a stalemate, and that it's better to think of what will happen going forward?

Maybe these conversations are already taking place, behind closed doors. Wars have often been fought during negotiations. Could it be that someone is already negotiating?

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Why F-16s Could Be Decisive For Ukraine

Denmark and the Netherlands have jointly declared their intention to dispatch F-16 fighter jets to bolster the Ukrainian Air Force. Once Ukrainian pilots are trained, it may help tip the balance in Kyiv's favor.

This article was updated on Aug. 21, 2023 at 3 p.m.

-Analysis-

KYIV — After the U.S. announced it will help train Ukrainians on F-16 fighter jets in late May, Yuriy Ignat, spokesman for the Ukrainian air force command, confidently declared: "Once we have the F-16s, we'll win this war."

With Denmark and the Netherlands jointly declaring their intention to dispatch dozens of F-16s to the Ukrainian Air Force (the Netherlands says it will give 42), Kyiv is one major step closer to having the jets in hand.

After the announcement Sunday, Ignat reiterated after his belief that the jets could be the decisive factor. “We won't win immediately, of course," he added. "But the F-16 is capable of changing the course of events, capable of providing us with what we need most today — air superiority in the occupied territories."

Ignat revealed that eight to nine Russian fighter jets currently operate in the occupied regions, deploying aerial bombs and missiles, Kyiv-based Livy Bereg reported. With the F-16s in Ukraine's arsenal, such actions would be significantly hampered, diminishing the Russian capacity to exert air dominance. Ignat reinforced the notion that control over the skies directly translates to success on the ground, thereby making the F-16's strategic value indisputable.

Military experts argue that it may not be as simple as that, but for military pilot instructor and Ukrainian reserve colonel, Roman Svitan, the Western fighters could help cut Ukrainian casualties and even shift the balance in Ukraine's favor during the counteroffensive.

Ukraine has launched a major counteroffensive to expel the Russian forces that have invaded its territory, but the fight has been slow going. Speaking to the independent Russian news site Important Stories, Roman Svitan explained how the F-16s could help Ukraine achieve this objective.

For starters, Ukraine can reach the Azov coast in the southeast under the protection of surface-to-air missile systems and sufficient artillery cover, Svitan explains.

“The ground is as flat as a table," he notes, "so it's easy to pull equipment like artillery there."

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Up Close With The "Beaver" Drones Leading Ukraine's Airborne Counteroffensive

In recent days, multiple drone attacks targeted and hit skyscrapers in Moscow's business district. These strikes are thought to have been led by Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), reportedly belonging to a new category of "Beaver" drones. Here's what we know about them.

MOSCOW — Earlier this week, drones hit the high-rise block where Russia's federal ministries are located. In this latest attack, offices for the Ministry of Economic Development were damaged, with windows blown in. And although the Russian army claims that the drones can be jammed with radio waves, the strikes still succeeded in damaging the building’s facades and interior.

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On Wednesday, Aug. 2, Russia retaliated with a drone attack of its own — on a Ukrainian port at Izmail in Odessa, damaging a grain warehouse, a passenger building and an elevator for loading grain.

Newsweek magazine writes that the Ukrainian attacks were carried out by the latest generation of Ukrainian drones known as "Beaver". Justin Bronk, a researcher at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), compared said Beaver drone to the Iranian Shahed drones that Russia used in its attacks on Ukrainian cities: the Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) have a comparable weight and size and flight range (1,000km), but a larger wingspan.

Analysts note that as it stands, it is unclear whether the Beaver UAV can cope with electronic warfare systems and interference as effectively as the Iranian Shaheds, which have several types of navigation.

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In The News
Worldcrunch

Worldcrunch Magazine #44 — Italy's Inferno

July 31 - August 6, 2023

This is the latest edition of Worldcrunch Magazine, a selection of our best articles of the week from the best international journalists, produced exclusively in English for Worldcrunch readers.

>> DISCOVER IT HERE <<

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In The News
Worldcrunch

Worldcrunch Magazine #43 — A Kherson Replay?

July 24 - July 30, 2023

This is the latest edition of Worldcrunch Magazine, a selection of our best articles of the week from the best international journalists, produced exclusively in English for Worldcrunch readers.

>> DISCOVER IT HERE <<

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FOCUS: Russia-Ukraine War
Evhen Dykyi

What Happens If Ukraine Loses? That's The Real "Cost Question" For The West

While the Ukrainian counteroffensive is mainly happening on the Southern and Eastern fronts, the struggle for Ukraine's future is also being waged on the "Western front," where more aid is desperately needed. Here, Kyiv needs to convince even the most resistant allies that a Ukrainian defeat would leave the European Union and the U.S. much weaker on the global stage.

-OpEd-

KYIV — From the outset, the objective of the Ukrainian counteroffensive bordered on the impossible. Ukraine faces a formidable 1,500-kilometer-long front, vast areas filled with dense minefields spanning hundreds of square kilometers and a complex, three-tiered defense system. Russia still has vast air power superiority, boasting a ten-fold advantage in the skies.

And yet...

The reality we face leaves us no alternative; we have no choice but to press forward. As we continue our offensive, we are defying all expectations. Every day, we make steady progress, clawing back our land, recapturing positions and dismantling enemy strongholds. Gradually, we are eliminating the first of the three enemy defense lines from the map, inching closer to the second line, which is likely to be more densely fortified.

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FOCUS: Russia-Ukraine War
Anna Akage

Never Underestimate The Staying Power Of Putin's Rule-By-Farce

The excitement with which the West watched Prigozhin's failed uprising reveals the delusional hopes that somehow a Russian white (or black) knight will come to overthrow Putin. No, there's still only one way to be rid of him, argues Ukrainian writer Anna Akage.

-OpEd-

As a Ukrainian, last weekend's Wagner Group insurrection in Russia unfolded for me like a scene straight out of absurdist theater. Were my initial expectations too high? Or maybe I had never watched a real-time military uprising from my computer screen. Either way, I began to quickly understand that the scenes before us share nothing with what anyone can call logical reality.

Even if it was all so absurd, none of it surprised me — but more on that below!

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First, in one video clip, we see Yevgeny Prigozhin's fighters enter Rostov-on-Don, occupy the headquarters of the South Military Command, and capture Yunus-bek Yevkurov, the Deputy Defense Minister of Russia, and bring him to Prigozhin. The footage shows the sworn enemies having a pleasant conversation. Nobody shoots at anybody. Nobody even looks nervous.

Then another video circulates of a janitor sweeping the streets of Rostov, occupied by Russian convicts, paying no attention to the row of tanks behind her. On social networks, Vladimir Putin's opposition watches intently, eating popcorn and praying. Reports flash across our feeds of oligarchs' super-jets taking off following the president's plane getting out from Moscow. There's no FSB intelligence officers, no police, no Russian guards.

The world seemed to freeze: Will something big really happen in Russia right now? Was the war in Ukraine about to suddenly be over? I wasn't placing any bets, but I was pretty sure that after dust settled, the answer would be a clear, plain: No on all acounts

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FOCUS: Russia-Ukraine War
Anna Steshenko

For Ukraine, It May Be Time To Crack Down On Draft Dodgers

Since the beginning of the full-scale Russian invasion, male Ukrainians aged 18 to 60 have been prohibited from traveling abroad. But some conscripts and men of draft age have found ways to leave the country, prompting discussions in Parliament on how to strengthen sanctions against draft dodgers.

KYIV — Since the outbreak of the war, the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine has reported conscripts trying to cross the border and flee to other countries.

Some men have tried disguising themselves in women’s clothing, while others hid in car trunks. There have also been cases of people drowning in rivers while trying to cross the border. Since the beginning of the invasion in 2022, 16 drowning victims have been recovered from the Tisza River along Ukraine's border with Romania and Hungary.

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Countries
Oleksandr Demchenko and Oleksandr Kalinichenko

Why Zelensky's Europe Tour Was So Important — Short And Long-Term

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky succeeded in securing massive stocks of weapons essential to Ukraine's imminent counteroffensive — and, crucially, he laid the groundwork for Ukraine's bid for NATO membership.

-Analysis-

KYIV — The Ukrainian president's tour of four European countries has ended, and Volodymyr Zelensky is back in Kyiv with new military aid promises from Italy, Germany, France and the UK, including medium-range missiles, tanks, air defense and artillery shells.

The UK also announced a new training program for Ukrainian pilots, and France has said it is ready to train fighter jet pilots. In addition, the leaders of four European countries supported Zelensky's peace formula, including terms for establishing a special tribunal for those responsible for crimes of aggression.

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In Europe, many decisions depend on the position of Germany, France, the UK and Italy. Each influences the implementation of security, economic and political initiatives in Europe, in one way or another.

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FOCUS: Russia-Ukraine War
Pavlo Kazarin

"Nobody's Born For War" — The True Meaning Of My Ukrainian Uniform

Pavlo Kazarin is a journalist for Ukrainska Pravda. He is also serving in the Ukrainian army: With the good and the bad, heroes and otherwise.

-Essay-

KYIV — I once knew a priest. He said you could find anything in the Bible, a book that describes every different behavior model in the face of similar situations. And the freedom of choice of what to believe always remains with the individual, all to be determined by where we leave our bookmarks in the book.

You could say this same principle also applies to the army.

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After all, you can find anything you want in our Ukrainian army. Heroism and selfishness. Courage and bureaucracy. Self-sacrifice and indifference. Everyone wears the same uniform, but underneath are different people. And the story each of us winds up telling about the army will depend on where we place our bookmarks after what we've witnessed and experienced.

Eyewitnesses will describe the same situations in different ways. There is no contradiction: hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians serve in our nation's defense forces. Each has their own experience, their emotional system, their life optics. Every soldier's sermon is a confession. At this moment, we listen less to the story of what happened than the speaker's story.

Too often the Ukrainian soldier is generalized. A person in a uniform becomes a representative of a caste. What he or she says then travels in news reports and on the internet with headlines like "Soldier says what he likes/dislikes/kills/makes him stronger. And so on."

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FOCUS: Russia-Ukraine War
Bohdan Miroshnychenko

How A Private UK Market Helps Get Used Tanks To Ukraine's Frontlines

Even as Ukraine's Western allies are sending much needed military hardware, there is an unofficial market for used equipment — from armored vehicles to drones and satellites — that has been vital for Kyiv. But how do these second-hand goods make it from Britain to the front?

KYIV — Satellite systems, pickup trucks, drones. Individual volunteers have been busy buying hand-me-down gear for Ukrainian forces since early in the war. Now, they've set their eyes on the British market of armored vehicles, buying up anything that could be used to fight Russia.

Old armored personnel carriers have been available at auction in the UK for many years. Weapons are removed from them, but the heavy tracked equipment are still in demand as "expensive toys" for businesses or simply to settle in collectors’ garages.

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Visiting Ukrainian volunteers had a difficult task: to find working armored vehicles in the UK, buy them from private owners and deliver them to Ukraine on their own."

The advertisement on UK website "Tanks A Lot" reads: "We have a lovely little FV103 CVRT Spartan tank for sale. We've driven it around the yard and it's a very nice car. It handles well off-road and can be registered for UK roads."

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