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TOPIC: ukraine russia war

FOCUS: Russia-Ukraine War

Inside The Polish-Led Push To Send Fighter Jets To Ukraine – Bypassing Germany

A bloc of eastern European countries has distanced themselves from Western Europe — Germany in particular — by sending Soviet era jets to Ukraine, part of growing push to supply the country with Western-made fighter jets.

Following Poland’s lead, Slovakia has now declared its plans to send MiG-29 fighter jets to Ukraine. The U.S. may well have been kept informed of the decisions, but Warsaw did not tell the German government. Some Eastern European allies are distancing themselves from Western Europe. And there’s a good reason for that.

Once again Poland is pushing ahead with supplying weapons to Ukraine. “We can say that we will shortly be sending MiG fighter jets to Ukraine,” said President Andrzej Duda on Thursday in Warsaw, during a visit from the Czech President Petr Pavel – announcing it almost in passing, as seems to be Duda’s way.

Duda went one step further than his Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki, who only the day before had set out a timeline for Poland to provide jets. He said it would take four to six weeks, then the President and commander-in-chief announced a shorter timeline of only a few days.

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How Much Does Xi Jinping Care About Putin's ICC Arrest Warrant?

After the International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for Vladimir Putin, Chinese President Xi Jinping arrives in Moscow for a three-day visit. How far will he be willing to go to support Putin, a fugitive from international justice?

-Analysis-

PARIS — Since Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin said last year that the friendship between their nations was "boundless," the world has wondered where the limits really lie. The Chinese president's three-day visit to Russia, which began Monday, gives us an opportunity to assess.

Xi's visit is important in many ways, particularly because the International Criminal Court has just issued an arrest warrant against Putin for his role in forcibly sending thousands of Ukrainian children to Russia. For Putin, there could be no better response to this international court, which he does not recognize, than to appear alongside the president of a great country, which, like Russia, is also a permanent member of the UN Security Council. How isolated can Putin really be, when the leader of 1.5 billion people in China comes to visit?

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Xi Jinping's Mission In Moscow, And The Limits Of The Russia-China Alliance

As Xi's closely watched visit to Moscow begins, China and Russia may seem like strategic partners, but it has ultimately shown to be a marriage of convenience. And both countries are naturally competitors, wary if the other grows stronger.

This article has been updated March 20, 12:00 p.m. CST

-Analysis-

Long before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese Premier Xi Jinping were growing closer. China’s goal? To revamp the current world order, significantly weaken the West and its leaders, and to become the world-dominating figurehead over and above the United States.

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Russia’s war in Ukraine has become an essential element of this plan to destabilize the global situation.

When the West began imposing stringent sanctions on Russia, China instead chose to economically support Putin and left its markets open to accept raw materials from Russia. But don’t think this means China is Putin’s lapdog. Quite the contrary: Beijing has never helped Moscow to its own detriment, not wishing to fall under the punitive measures of the U.S. and Europe.

The fundamental dynamic has not changed ahead of Xi Jinping's arrival on Monday for his first visit to Moscow since the war began. Beyond the photo ops and pleasant words that Xi and Putin are sure to share, the Russian-Chinese alliance continues to be looked at skeptically amongst the elite in both Beijing and Moscow.

China was not expecting Russia’s plans to occupy Ukraine in a matter of days to fail and as a result, China’s aim to destabilize the West alongside its Russian partner failed.

Add to this the various alliances in the West emerging against Beijing and fears for China’s economy on home turf is beginning to grow.

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Bakhmut Diary: Death And Life From Inside Ukraine's 243rd Battalion

A 39-year-old fighter codenamed "Alaska," a member of the Ukrainian Battalion 243, has decided to share his story in the battles of Bakhmut and other key frontline positions in eastern Ukraine over the past six months.

Last fall, Ukraine’s 243rd Battalion fought in the early days of the battle for Bakhmut, which has become a decisive clash that continues to claim huge numbers of lives every day.

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The battalion held back the Russian advance near the towns of Klishchiivka and Opytny, under constant artillery fire. This is the story of how four of its fighters — Alaska, Dill, Wind and Braid — were completely surrounded in a closed hangar near Opytny. Cut off from their squad and under heavy artillery fire, they stood firm, even when it looked like all hope was lost.

The 39-year-old fighter codenamed "Alaska," whose real name is Viktor Bordyuzha, tells the story in his own words:

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Economy
Vincent Collen

LNG Carriers, Europe's Floating Response To Russia's Gas War

From Croatia to Spain, Portugal, Germany and France, revamped LNG gas routes are providing an agile European energy response to the cutting off of Russian gas since the war in Ukraine began.

KRK — Tourists know the island of Krk, in northern Croatia, for its heavenly coves that open onto the Adriatic Sea’s translucent waters. But now, Krk will also be known for its strategic role in the energy security of Croatia and Central Europe.

Not far from the beaches, a 280-meter-long ship carrying natural gas is moored in a bay, protected from storms. This blue and white ship, known as the “LNG Croatia” has been completely reconfigured to become a liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal.

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Over the past two years, more than fifty LNG carriers have unloaded their valuable cargo in Krk — mainly from the Gulf of Mexico, in the United States, but also from Qatar, Egypt, Nigeria, Trinidad and elsewhere.

In the countries where it is produced, the gas is cooled at a temperature of minus 160°C, so it can be transported in liquid form. After arriving at Krk, it is transferred to the "LNG Croatia” ship, where it is heated with seawater and becomes gaseous again, and then transported ashore through a large pipe. Once ashore, the gas is pressurized and injected into a pipeline that flows into the Croatian gas network, as well as pipelines that connect to neighboring Slovenia and Hungary.

The LNG Croatia is a boat that no longer sails. But Boris Martic, its captain, is still surprised by his country’s new situation. “All around here, it’s crowded with tourists in the summer,” he says, pointing from the sunny deck of the vessel. "I would have never imagined, only a few years ago, that Croatia was going to become an LNG import hub.”

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FOCUS: Russia-Ukraine War
Théophile Simon

Defiance And Resilience, A Year Of Living Dangerously In Kyiv

One year after the Russian invasion, Kyiv has become an international symbol of resistance, also in the way that ordinary life continues, despite air raids and bomb blasts.

KYIV — Bombs at breakfast, jacuzzi at noon. Like many residents of Kyiv, Alina Sugoniako's daily life at the end of January is anything but normal. That Thursday, at dawn, the Russian army fired about 20 missiles onto the Ukrainian capital. The young woman, five months pregnant, takes refuge between the walls of the corridor of her small apartment with her husband, Dmytro.

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They waited there for nearly an hour, their eyes glued to their phones, looking for information on the impact points of the bombs. Then the news falls: one dead and two wounded in the south of the city. The air raid alert faded into the icy sky, and life could try to resume its course.

The couple, who had planned to spend a few hours relaxing in a downtown spa, decided to keep to their schedule.

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FOCUS: Russia-Ukraine War
Francesca Mannocchi

Inside The Battle For Bakhmut, A Singular Prize In Ukraine's New War Of Attrition

Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine has been the site of some of the fiercest and bloodiest battles since Russia's invasion. As the human toll mounts, Ukraine must decide between symbolism and strategy in a fight against waves of untrained Russian civilian troops.

“Don’t ask me anything about how to fight," says Viktor, 52, lieutenant of the 66th Mechanized Brigade of the Kyiv Army, by way of introduction. "The war against civilians cannot be explained.”

Viktor is standing in front of the tank that brought him back alive, after his latest rotation in Bakhmut, the strategically important city in eastern Ukraine that has been at the center of intense fighting. By "civilians" he is actually referring to the enemy troops, who he says are largely untrained conscripts that Russia has thrown into the battle.

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Deployed in the Donetsk region since the start of the war, the Ukrainian soldiers of the 66th Brigade lost their commander, Oleh Dehtiarov, in battle last summer. Taking an active part in Ukraine's counteroffensive in September, during which it regained large parts of occupied territory, was thus driven by both national duty and personal remembrance.

We are speaking at an undisclosed military base, near the city of Lyman in eastern Ukraine, which was occupied by the Russians for months before they helped liberate it. Today the unit assists infantry in the battles of Avdiivka and Bakhmut.

Viktor calls it "the bird hunt”: if the Russians try to break through the positions, the artillery units receive a command, and the vehicles advance, striking the enemy army.

Even if Viktor says the so-called "war against civilians" cannot be explained, it may be that he's remembering the first commandment of those who fight: to force oneself not to be afraid, and when fear appears through the cracks, do your best to hide it.

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FOCUS: Russia-Ukraine War
Pierre Haski

"Neither Side Can Have Total Victory" — Emmanuel Macron's Exclusive Interview On Ukraine

Returning from this weekend's Munich Security Conference, French President told France Inter public radio: "I do not think that Russia should be defeated completely, or attacked on its soil. These observers want above all to crush Russia. This has never been the position of France and it never will be."

PARIS — Helping Ukraine to tip the balance of power in its favor, then negotiating with Russia: on the eve of the first anniversary of the outbreak of the Russian invasion, French President Emmanuel Macron is once again making his difference on the war in Ukraine heard.

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In an interview with journalists from France Inter,Le Figaro and Le Journal du Dimanche, on his return from this weekend's Munich Security Conference, the French President made it clear that he does not share the views of those who want to make Russia and its President Vladimir Putin pay, or even crush them.

"I want Russia's defeat in Ukraine, and I want Ukraine to be able to defend its position. But I am convinced that in the end, the conflict will not be settled militarily. I do not think, as some people do, that Russia should be defeated completely, or attacked on its soil. These observers want above all to crush Russia. This has never been the position of France and it never will be."

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FOCUS: Russia-Ukraine War
Pierre Haski

Defining Victory In Ukraine: The Real Meaning Of Macron's "Not Crushing" Russia

French President Emmanuel Macron turned heads by saying that his objective was to defeat Russia, without "crushing" it. This diverges with the objectives of Ukraine and other allies. It's a question that will ultimately be answered on the battlefield.

-Analysis-

PARIS — French President Emmanuel Macron sometimes describes himself as "the master of clocks" — Of course he cannot claim that title in the war in Ukraine, where the timing of the fighting must obey to other "masters."

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Still, time management is crucial in any military conflict, and the French President mentioned it in his speech at the Munich Security Conference this past weekend, and in the interview he gave to France Inter public radio afterwards. Timing is a topic that weighs on the destiny of the war, on the outlines of a possible peace, on the rest of the world that suffers the consequences.

In his speech, just a few days before the one-year anniversary of the Russian invasion, Macron said he was prepared for a prolonged conflict in Ukraine. But he immediately added, "By saying this, I do not wish it. But above all, if we do not wish it, we must collectively be credible in our ability to endure this effort."

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FOCUS: Russia-Ukraine War
Maria Zholobova

How Russia Is Still Dodging Sanctions — With Help From Companies Everywhere

A healthy dose of cynicism and short cuts allows parts for weapons and other technology to still make their way into Russia. Independent Russian-language media Vazhnyye Istorii traces the way both Moscow and much of the rest of the world circumvent export bans.

When Western countries imposed sanctions on Russia after the invasion of Ukraine, exporting Western technologies to Russia was effectively banned — at least, on paper.

But through a web of third parties, Russia is still finding ways to dodge the sanctions and import crucial components for weapons and other technology.

In the United States, personal sanctions prohibit American citizens and companies from doing business with specific Russian people and businesses. Other sanctions prevent them from doing business with entire industries. Secondary sanctions may be imposed on non-US companies caught violating US prohibitions.

A special permit is required for any export of high-tech products to Russia. These are only issued in exceptional circumstances, if ever. The largest manufacturers of microelectronics — Analog Devices, Texas Instruments and others — have all ceased commercial activities in Russia.

Still, products made by these companies are increasingly being found in the remains of Russian drones and missiles.

Components continue to enter Russia through a chain of intermediary firms in different countries. For example, an American company can buy them from a manufacturer, then sell them to a Chinese company, which can in turn sell them to a Russian intermediary who is not formally connected with the defense complex — who will then transfer the goods to the arms manufacturer.

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Geopolitics
Pierre Haski

​Putin v. The West Began 16 Years Ago In Munich — And Nobody Noticed

The Munich Security Conference of 2023 takes place this weekend. The 2007 edition was a turning point for the world, where Vladimir Putin made his intentions clear — and today it all looks destined to arrive at the invasion of Ukraine.

-Analysis-

PARIS — The Munich Security Conference, which runs through Sunday, has often been described as the "Davos of Defense," where generals take the stage instead of CEOs. It is also where, 16 years ago, Vladimir Putin made it clear to the world that he would invade Ukraine.

This is obviously an oversimplification. Still, it's worth returning to the Munich Conference of 2007 when the Russian President announced to the West that the post-Soviet party was over.

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Putin delivered a brutal and cutting speech in the German city that was largely overlooked at the time. He had already been in power for seven years, had led the war in Chechnya, and stabilized the situation in Russia after the tumultuous 1990s. By 2007, he was ready to tell the West how he really saw the world.

He launched a scathing critique of the unipolar world, led by the sole superpower at the time, the United States, after the collapse of the Soviet Union. "It is a world of one master, one sovereign," he said.

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FOCUS: Russia-Ukraine War
Anna Akage

Now Or Never? The Five Reasons Putin Is Moving Up His “Spring Offensive” To February

The Russian army is fighting fiercely for every kilometer in the Donbas, amid reports of new masses of troops arriving in Ukraine. By most accounts, it looks like Putin has moved up the calendar on a major assault that was originally planned after the winter thaw.

-Analysis-

As February began, fierce battles were raging in both the Luhansk and Donetsk regions of eastern Ukraine, with elite units of the Russian army and fighters from the Wagner Group mercenary outfit engaged in the action.

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More Russian troops and equipment from all quarters are descending toward a widening front line, all overseen by General Valery Gerasimov, a veteran of the Russian military, who is now commanding both regular defense department battalions and the Wagner soldiers. Gerasimov took over last month, appointed by President Vladimir Putin who was apparently dissatisfied with three previous top commanders of the war.

Taken together, these and other signs from the past week appear to point to Russia launching a major offensive on Ukraine — now. Russia increased the number of missile launchers in the Black Sea with 16 "Kalibr" salvos. In the Luhansk region, they continue to conduct offensive actions in the Lyman and Bakhmut directions. Some reports say the attack will match in breadth and intensity the initial invasion last February.

If confirmed, this imminent Russian assault would be a significant acceleration on the battlefield calendar, after most had been expecting Putin to launch the attack in the spring. Why has Moscow changed its mind?

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