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TOPIC: ukraine refugees

FOCUS: Russia-Ukraine War

If 3.3 Million Ukrainian Refugees Never Come Home? The Economics Of Post-War Life Choices

The war isn't the only thing that stands in the way of the homecoming of Ukrainian refugees. A lot depends on the efficiency of post-war economic recovery. A new study warns that up to 3.3 million won't be coming back after the fighting stops.

KYIV — Approximately 6.7 million Ukrainians have left their country since the Russian invasion. The longer the war lasts, the more these refugees will consolidate their new lives in their host countries, resulting in a heavy population drain for Ukraine.

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Earlier this month, the Kyiv-based Center for Economic Strategy (CES) presented a study on the attitudes of Ukrainian refugees that shows a large number of them will likely not return to their homeland even after the end of the war.

According to their calculations, Ukraine may lose 3.3 million citizens. There is also a strong likelihood that a large number of men currently fighting in the war will move abroad in order to reunite with their families that have settled there.

Even in peacetime, counting Ukrainians is not an easy task. A full-fledged census was conducted in the country only once: in 2001. It concluded that Ukraine had a population of 48.5 million.

After the Russian invasion in 2014, Ukraine was unable to compute how the population in the temporarily occupied territories had changed. According to latest calculations, as on February 1, 2022, an estimated 41.13 million people lived in the unoccupied territory.

After February 24, 2022, it became impossible to count the exact number of inhabitants, partly because the state does not have information on the number of Ukrainians who have fled the country as a result of the war.

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Russia Boasts Of Capturing A Ukrainian Orphan Who'd Tried To Return Home

Last spring, after Moscow's troops occupied Mariupol, minors with no parents were forced from the southern city to go to Russia. One 17-year-old recently tried to escape, and return home to be with his sister. He didn't make it — and Russia proudly shared the story.

A 17-year-old Ukrainian who'd been forcibly taken from occupied Mariupol to Russia at the start of its full-scale invasion was trying to return home, but was captured by Russian security forces at the border with Belarus and will be sent back to Russia.

Maria Lvova-Belova, the so-called ombudsman for Children's Rights in Russia, held a press conference on Tuesday to share the news that Russian security forces had detained Bogdan Ermokhin and returned him to a "foster family" in Russia.

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Lvova-Belova said that Ermokhin had been emotionally manipulated and threatened by Ukrainian “agents” into returning back to Ukraine, where he has a sister. The agents supposedly organized transport and financial support for Ermokhin. “He was deceptively lured out,” she said, “at the last moment, we managed to stop him.”

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First We'll Take Kyiv: Inside Putin's Original Plans To Occupy Ukraine

If Russia's invasion of Ukraine hadn't gone so badly, the Kremlin had two possible plans for governing the country under the Russian flag.

KYIV — On the morning of Feb. 23, 2022, regiments of the Russian army were preparing to attack and encircle Kyiv. Within three days, the Kremlin expected to see the Russian tricolor flying over the city.

What was supposed to happen if Putin’s invasion had gone according to plan? After overthrowing Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky's government, who would have seized power and led Putin's Ukraine?

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Ukrainian news site Ukrainska Pravda looks at the two scenarios Russian strategists had laid out for the capture of Kyiv, as well as which Ukrainian officials were expected to help.

"If you think that the Russians had a clear plan as to who would end up ruling Ukraine, you are very much mistaken,” a high-ranking Ukrainian intelligence officer said. “Their primary goal was simply this: the government had to fall. According to their plan, that would have happened on the third day. On the tenth day, they would have gained control over the entire country. The specific names of those who would be the new power were not that clear."

For Russia, it was simple: if Kyiv surrendered, Moscow would rule everything. That was what mattered.

Although plans were not set in stone, Moscow still had two options in its playbook.

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Le Weekend ➡️ African Migrants And Ukrainian Wheat, A Tale Of Two Seas

June 11-12

  • A letter to Putin
  • A French-U.S. take on gun culture
  • Saving Mariupol’s dogs
  • … and much more.
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