TOPIC: taiwan

China-Taiwan: Between Election Maneuvering And Dress Rehearsals For War

The Chinese military's encirclement of Taiwan is above all a political move, not a tactical one. War is unlikely for now: Beijing still has other cards to play in the crisis. But if these fail, anything is possible.

-Analysis-

BEIJING — No one, not even China (despite how it may seem), nor the United States or Taiwan, want war in the region. But for the past three days, the world has watched a game of intimidation around this island of 24 million inhabitants, which has become, as The Economist described it a few years ago, "the most dangerous place in the world."

The means deployed by the Chinese People's Liberation Army are considerable, including the Shandong aircraft carrier, the pride of the Beijing navy, as well as the new J-15 fighter jet. The maneuvers, which included repeated violations of the Taiwanese air identification zone, are like a dress rehearsal for a possible Chinese invasion of the island.

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Europe Must Not Be America's "Vassals": The Full Macron Interview After His China Visit

Translated in full from French, here is the exclusive interview French President Emmanuel Macron gave to three reporters on his way back from his trip to China, in which he insisted that Europe needed more autonomy from the United States.

PARIS — "For too long, Europe hasn't built strategic autonomy. Today, that battle has been won.”

In an interview with Les Echos as he returned from his much-publicized visit to China, French President Emmanuel Macron emphasized that Europe must strengthen its position in the world. “The trap for Europe would be the moment when it clarifies its strategic position, but then gets caught up in... crises that aren’t Europe’s.”

For the French President, strategic autonomy is crucial to avoid European countries being just “vassal states” rather than a third superpower, on the same level as the U.S. and China. "We do not want to engage in a bloc-to-bloc logic," added the French President, who also spoke out against the “extraterritoriality of the dollar.”

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Geopolitics

Pierre Haski

Macron In China, Tsai In California: Why Europe Must Face The Taiwan Question

The issue of Taiwan has come up during French President Emmanuel Macron's visit to China. The unresolved question of the island's independence shows Europe will find it hard to remain neutral as tensions between the U.S. and China reach a new peak.

-Analysis-

BEIJING — If an example was needed of the escalation of Chinese-American rivalry, the visit to the United States by the President of Taiwan, Tsai Ing-wen, would be enough. This visit, and especially her meeting Wednesday in California with the Republican Speaker of the House of Representatives, Kevin McCarthy, are like a red rag to the leaders of Beijing, who promise "retaliation."

This new boiling point — yet one more — is shaking up the delicate balance of the visit to China by French President Emmanuel Macron, joined Thursday by European Commission President Ursula Von der Leyen. European leaders hope to redefine the China-Europe relationship by side-stepping the new Sino-American Cold War— but, as Emmanuel Macron himself admits, this path is very narrow.

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Geopolitics

Pierre Haski

D.C. Or Beijing? Two High-Stakes Trips — And Taiwan's Divided Future On The Line

Two presidents of Taiwan, the current serving president, Tsai Ing-wen, and her predecessor, Ma Ying-jeou from the opposition Kuomintang party, are traveling in opposite directions these days. Taiwan must choose whom to follow.

-Analysis-

PARIS — Tsai Ing-wen, the President of Taiwan, is traveling to the United States today. Not on an official trip because Taiwan is not a state recognized by Washington, but in transit, en route to Central America, a strategy that allows her to pass through New York and California.

Ma Ying-jeou, a former president of Taiwan, arrived yesterday in Shanghai: he is making a 12-day visit at the invitation of the Chinese authorities at a time of high tension between China and the United States, particularly over the fate of Taiwan.

It would be difficult to make these two trips more contrasting, as both have the merit of summarizing at a glance the decisive political battle that is coming. Presidential and legislative elections will be held in January 2024 in Taiwan, which could well determine Beijing's attitude towards the island that China claims by all means, including force.

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Geopolitics

Oleksandr Demchenko

Why Beijing Needs Ukraine To Lose

As the Chinese government puts together what it calls a peace plan for Ukraine, it's also considering sending weapons to Russia. The Biden administration warns China will "pay a real price" if it helps Russia, but Beijing's real goal is to weaken the United States.

This article was updated on March 21, 2023 at 12:15 PM CST

-Analysis-

KYIV — In Moscow for his visit since the Russian invasion, Chinese President Xi Jinping is presenting himself as possible peacemaker to end the war in Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has said he is ready to talk with Xi in a bid to stop Beijing from supplying Moscow with weapons.

And yet China has no strategic interest in Ukraine winning the war. Why?

Xi's only priority is establishing a future world order on Beijing's own terms — and the defeat of Ukraine and its allies, particularly the United States, would create an opportunity for Beijing to absorb Taiwan and increase its influence in the Pacific.

Stay up-to-date with the latest on the Russia-Ukraine war, with our exclusive international coverage.

China is the main beneficiary of the full-scale war that Russia has unleashed against Ukraine, viewing the confrontation as a tool to weaken the West.

Like Russian President Vladimir Putin, Chinese authorities were convinced that Russian troops could capture Kyiv in three days and take control of most of Ukraine within a month. This is probably what Putin and Xi agreed when they met during the Beijing Olympics in Feb. 2022: the Russian leader promised to destroy Ukraine, weakening Europe and eroding the trust other democratic states had in the United States — and in exchange, the Chinese leader assured Putin that he would back Moscow.

Instead, what was hailed as "No. 2 army of the world" was forced to retreat. On Sept. 15, as Ukrainian forces were liberating the Kharkiv region, Putin met Xi in Samarkand, Uzbekistan. After returning to Moscow, Putin announced a partial mobilization.

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Geopolitics

Petro Shevchenko

Xi Jinping's Mission In Moscow, And The Limits Of The Russia-China Alliance

As Xi's closely watched visit to Moscow begins, China and Russia may seem like strategic partners, but it has ultimately shown to be a marriage of convenience. And both countries are naturally competitors, wary if the other grows stronger.

This article has been updated March 20, 12:00 p.m. CST

-Analysis-

Long before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese Premier Xi Jinping were growing closer. China’s goal? To revamp the current world order, significantly weaken the West and its leaders, and to become the world-dominating figurehead over and above the United States.

Stay up-to-date with the latest on the Russia-Ukraine war, with our exclusive international coverage.

Russia’s war in Ukraine has become an essential element of this plan to destabilize the global situation.

When the West began imposing stringent sanctions on Russia, China instead chose to economically support Putin and left its markets open to accept raw materials from Russia. But don’t think this means China is Putin’s lapdog. Quite the contrary: Beijing has never helped Moscow to its own detriment, not wishing to fall under the punitive measures of the U.S. and Europe.

The fundamental dynamic has not changed ahead of Xi Jinping's arrival on Monday for his first visit to Moscow since the war began. Beyond the photo ops and pleasant words that Xi and Putin are sure to share, the Russian-Chinese alliance continues to be looked at skeptically amongst the elite in both Beijing and Moscow.

China was not expecting Russia’s plans to occupy Ukraine in a matter of days to fail and as a result, China’s aim to destabilize the West alongside its Russian partner failed.

Add to this the various alliances in the West emerging against Beijing and fears for China’s economy on home turf is beginning to grow.

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Economy

Pierre Haski

Will China Invade Taiwan? Volkswagen's €180 Billion Bet Says 'No'

German automobile giant Volkswagen will invest billions in China to manufacture electric vehicles. It has deemed the risk of China invading Taiwan "unlikely," a peek into the calculations that private-sector conglomerates make, just like state actors.

-Analysis-

PARIS — Automaker Volkswagen has decided to accelerate its investments in electric vehicles: €180 billion, mainly in the United States and China. The Financial Times has reported that the company's management evaluated the risk and concluded that China would not invade Taiwan in the short term. It decided as a result that it was reasonable to invest in China, one of its main markets.

It's an interesting vantage point to undertand events. Governments around the world are questioning China's intentions towards the island of Taiwan, which Beijing claims as its own. What is less known is that large companies also need to calculate geopolitical risk and conduct their own analyses.

A few months after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the President of the European Chamber of Commerce in China, which represents thousands of companies, sounded the alarm in an interview with an economic magazine. Joerg Wuttke mentioned the trauma of Western companies forced to leave Russia and lose everything, and warned Chinese authorities that the same thing could happen if China invaded Taiwan.

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Geopolitics

Gregor Schwung

China's Military Intentions Are Clear — And Arming Taiwan Is The Only Deterrence

China is spending more money on weapons and defense than ever. The reason is evident: Xi Jinping wants to take Taiwan. Europe should follow the U.S. and support Taipei militarily as the only way to deter Beijing from war.

-OpEd-

BERLIN — Fear is never the best advisor.

It is, however, an understandable emotion when China announces the biggest increase in its defense budget in memory. And when Beijing does so after siding with Russia in the Ukraine war with its supposed "peace plan" and justifying the increase with an alleged "escalating oppression" of China in the world.

The budget plan unveiled by outgoing Premier Li Keqiang calls for a 7.2% increase in defense spending. That's more than in previous years — and just the official figure.

Experts estimate the true spending is much higher, as Beijing finances its military through numerous shadow budgets.

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TOPIC: taiwan

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The Chinese military's encirclement of Taiwan is above all a political move, not a tactical one. War is unlikely for now: Beijing still has other cards to play in the crisis. But if these fail, anything is possible.

A warning from China in response to Taiwanese President's U.S. visit

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Translated in full from French, here is the exclusive interview French President Emmanuel Macron gave to three reporters on his way back from his trip to China, in which he insisted that Europe needed more autonomy from the United States.

After your talk with Xi Jinping, what can we expect from China on Ukraine?

Since the Chinese are obsessed with their confrontation with the United States, especially on the issue of Taiwan, don't they tend to see Europe as a pawn between the two blocs?

As an increasing number of European countries turn more than ever to the United States to ensure their security, does European strategic autonomy still make sense?

Some could argue today in Europe that there is more emphasis on Franco-German relations and less focus on Poland...

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Two presidents of Taiwan, the current serving president, Tsai Ing-wen, and her predecessor, Ma Ying-jeou from the opposition Kuomintang party, are traveling in opposite directions these days. Taiwan must choose whom to follow.

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Brutal normalization

As the Chinese government puts together what it calls a peace plan for Ukraine, it's also considering sending weapons to Russia. The Biden administration warns China will "pay a real price" if it helps Russia, but Beijing's real goal is to weaken the United States.

It's all about Taiwan

Trap for Ukraine

Weapons for Russia

As Xi's closely watched visit to Moscow begins, China and Russia may seem like strategic partners, but it has ultimately shown to be a marriage of convenience. And both countries are naturally competitors, wary if the other grows stronger.

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German automobile giant Volkswagen will invest billions in China to manufacture electric vehicles. It has deemed the risk of China invading Taiwan "unlikely," a peek into the calculations that private-sector conglomerates make, just like state actors.

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China is spending more money on weapons and defense than ever. The reason is evident: Xi Jinping wants to take Taiwan. Europe should follow the U.S. and support Taipei militarily as the only way to deter Beijing from war.

Claim on Taiwan

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