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TOPIC: saudi arabia

Geopolitics

Saudi Ambitions: Is MBS A New Nasser For The Middle East?

Mohammed bin Salman, aka MBS, is positioning the Saudi kingdom to be a global force of diplomacy in a way that challenges a longstanding alliance with Washington. But does the young prince have a singular vision for the interests of both his nation and the world?

-Analysis-

PARIS — In the Lebanese daily L'Orient-le-Jour, which has no particular attachment to the Saudi government, Mohammed bin Salman, the kingdom's Crown Prince, was recently described as a man "who is taking on an importance that no Arab leader has had since Nasser."

That's right: this is the very same Mohamed bin Salman who had been considered an international pariah for ordering the sordid murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi in 2018 at the Saudi consulate in Istanbul.

So what has "MBS," as he calls himself, done to be compared to the greatest Arab nationalist leader of the 20th century, Egyptian President Gamal Abdel Nasser, who died in 1970? The Crown Prince has taken advantage of the shockwaves of the war in Ukraine to emancipate himself from any oversight, and to develop a diplomacy which, it must be admitted, is hard to keep up with.

Saudi Arabia thus embodies those mid-level powers that defy all the codes of international alliances, and do as they please – for better or for worse.

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Middle East, Realpolitik: Inside Assad's Return To The World Stage

The Arab League has readmitted Syria, ending the regime's ten-year isolation. This is a defeat for the West — and an admission by the Arab states that there is no way around Assad.

-Analysis-

BERLIN — He has killed civilians with poison gas and barrel bombs, bombed cities to rubble, imprisoned and tortured his countrymen and triggered the largest refugee crisis since World War II. Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad was among the world's most ostracized and isolated politicians — but now he is returning to the world stage.

The 22-member Arab League voted by a majority on Sunday to readmit Syria to its fold. As a result, Assad can now participate in regional summits again, 12 years after the Syrian civil war began. The next summit is scheduled for May 19 in the Saudi capital, Riyadh.

The Arab family first disowned him when he shot down peaceful demonstrations against his corrupt regime. Like the West, most League member states called for Assad's resignation and supported groups fighting his forces.

Recently, however, some Arab states have sought to reconnect with him. Why are they rehabilitating the mass murderer now?

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“Reckless” Russia In Drone Crash, Pakistan’s Khan Protests, Introducing GPT-4

👋 Demat !*

Welcome to Wednesday, where a Russian fighter jet collides with U.S. drone over the Black Sea, Pakistan’s former Prime Minister Imran Khan resists arrest, and there’s already a new ChatGPT to talk to. Meanwhile, Roman Kravets and Roman Romanyuk for Ukrainian news website Ukrainska Pravda look back on Putin’s original plans to take over Ukraine, and what foiled them.

[*Breton, France]

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The True Limits Of The Saudi-Iranian Deal Begin In Tehran

Iran and Saudi Arabia have announced they will restore diplomatic relations. The news may have proved startling — especially China's role — but is unlikely to dispel long-standing distrust between two regional rivals.

-Analysis-

Observers have reacted to the planned restoration of diplomatic ties between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Saudi monarchy, with Chinese mediation, as a warning to the United States on its declining position in the Middle East — and China's arrival as a regional powerbroker.

The announcement even provoked accusations between government and opposition in Israel, which was likely hoping to normalize ties with Saudi Arabia in the framework of the Abraham Accords.

The U.S. website Axios recently cited an unnamed Israel official as blaming U.S. weakness under the current Democratic administration for this development in Middle East. While the United States remains Israel's chief ally, there is an inevitable clash of perspectives between the right-wing government in Tel Aviv and Washington.

Yet on Iran's regional threat, both sides insist they're on the same page.

Opponents of Israel's current Benjamin Netanyahu government have even blamed its divisive judicial reforms for distracting the country from regional affairs at a sensitive time. But the Israeli official cited in Axios observed that developments behind the scenes, including U.S.-Israeli collaborations, were more important than surface events.

In Iran, the breakthrough was presented by some as a victory against the West's bid to isolate the regime, which has deftly worked itself into a corner with its contested nuclear activities, alignment with Russia in Ukraine, and harsh repression of protesters in recent months. The conservative Kayhan newspaper, unrelated to Kayhan-London, called the deal a "working blow against America" and Israel.

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Geopolitics
Pierre Haski

How China's Iran-Saudi Diplomacy Stunned The World — Starting With Washington

The move is seen as a coup for China in its efforts to assert itself as a global superpower, while also presenting itself as a responsible and peaceful nation in the eyes of the non-Western world. The agreement is expected to help reduce tensions in the region and revive hopes for peace in Yemen, where the two countries have been fighting a proxy war.

-Analysis-

PARIS — There is the agreement itself, and there are the circumstances surrounding the agreement. Saudi Arabia and Iran had severed diplomatic ties in 2016 after the execution of a Saudi Shiite leader. The restoration of relations between these two rival Middle East powers is therefore no small feat.

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But even more intriguing, more spectacular, and totally unexpected is the role played by China. For it was in Beijing that Friday's agreement was signed. The photo of China's top diplomat, State Councillor Wang Yi, surrounded by the Saudi and Iranian ministers, in front of a large Chinese painting in Beijing, attests to a world that has suddenly changed.

This is undoubtedly the first time that China has taken on the role of mediator in the Middle East, a stance that has electrified the region and beyond since the announcement of the agreement.

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In The News
Emma Albright & Ginevra Falciani

China-Russia Summit, Pope Calls For Ceasefire, Battle Of Oranges

👋 Allo!*

Welcome to Wednesday, where Vladimir Putin meets with China’s top diplomat in Moscow, Japan and China have their first formal security talks in four years and Starbucks launches a new drinks flavor for Italian palates. Meanwhile, we look at how Russia’s war propaganda machine has backfired and actually left Moscow itself as the prime victim of its own lies.

[*Seychellois Creole]

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In The News
Ginevra Falciani & Inès Mermat

Ukraine Interior Minister Killed In Helicopter Crash, Greta v. Polizei, World’s Oldest Person Dies

👋 Halo!*

Welcome to Wednesday, where Ukraine’s interior minister is among 18 killed in a helicopter crash near Kyiv, the world’s oldest person dies at 118, and Greta Thunberg is briefly detained by German police. Meanwhile, London-based, Persian-language Kayhan wonders what’s behind the Iranian Supreme Leader’s repeated allusions to the end of the Shah's rule.

[*Bislama, Vanuatu]

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In The News
Emma Albright, Hugo Perrin and Anne-Sophie Goninet

Iran Executes Protester, Peru President Ousted, Most Googled Word

👋 སྐུ་གཟུགས་བཟང་པོ།*

Welcome to Thursday, where Peru gets its first female president after Pedro Castillo is impeached and arrested, the trial of Germany's biggest fraud case opens and we know Google’s most-searched item of the year. Meanwhile, Persian-language media Kayhan-London looks at the prosecutions of demonstrators in Iran, just as the government announces the first publicly known execution related to the ongoing protests.

[*Kuzu zangpo la, Dzongkha - Bhutan]

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In The News
Lila Paulou, Lisa Berdet, Anne-Sophie Goninet and Joel Silvestri

Donetsk Death Toll Rises, Shinzo Abe Funeral, Jane Goo-doll

👋 Добрий день*

Welcome to Tuesday, where the death toll in Chasiv Yar, in Ukraine’s Donetsk region, rises to 34, Japan pays its last homage to Shinzo Abe and Barbie unveils a new doll in honor of UK primatologist Jane Goodall. Meanwhile, independent multimedia platform el Toque shines a light on the blackouts testing Cubans' patience.

[*Dobriy den - Ukrainian]

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Geopolitics
Dominique Moisi

From Taliban To Taiwan, The Limits Of Military Power

China is beefing up its military arsenal, with Taiwan as its target. However, as with the continued difficulty to control the terrain in Afghanistan, we increasingly see that military power is far from ensuring the hegemony hoped for by stronger parties.

-Analysis-

PARIS — "How many divisions does the Pope have?" once famously asked Joseph Stalin, highlighting that despite religious or political authority, military force can always prevail in geopolitics. However, in the 21st century, one can legitimately ask what military force is for.

In Afghanistan, more than three months after the Taliban's lightning victory, terrorist violence continues. It seems that members of the defeated regular army have joined the ranks of the "fundamentalist international" to continue the fight against the Taliban. In short, military victory on the ground has not solved anything. The Taliban face the resilience of those nostalgic for freedom and progress on the one hand, and Islamic fanatics on the other.

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Geopolitics

Iran-Saudi Arabia Rivalry May Be Set To Ease, Or Get Much Worse

The Saudis may be awaiting the outcome of Iran's nuclear talks with the West, to see whether Tehran will moderate its regional policies, or lash out like never before.

-Analysis-

LONDON — The Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh said earlier this month that Iranian and Saudi negotiators had so far had four rounds of "continuous" talks, though both sides had agreed to keep them private. The talks are to ease fraught relations between Iran's radical Shia regime and the Saudi kingdom, a key Western ally in the Middle East.

Iran's Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian has said that the talks were going in the right direction, while an Iranian trade official was recently hopeful these might even allow trade opportunities for Iranian businessmen in Saudi Arabia. As the broadcaster France 24 observed separately, it will take more than positive signals to heal a five-year-rift and decades of mutual suspicions.

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Green
Carl Karlsson

Can Oil-Producing Nations Move To Renewables? Grading 7 Petrol States

The possibility of transitioning to a greener energy future varies among economies that are fossil fuel-dependent , which represent nearly one-third of the world's population and one-fifth of global greenhouse gas emissions. For some, the question is purely financial; for others, political factors are slowing the shift.

In Norway, a left-wing landslide election win last week is calling into question the future of the country's oil production. Two weeks earlier, Iraq's finance minister made an unprecedented call to fellow OPEC countries to move away from fossil-fuel dependency.

The two recent headlines are emblematic of the challenges facing major oil-producing nations around the world. Last year's crash in oil prices coincided with unprecedented public demands for a commitment to a cleaner energy future, while the pandemic exposed the fragility of economies heavily dependent on a single commodity.

And yet, the ability to adapt to a greener energy future varies drastically among fossil fuel-dependent countries, which represent nearly one-third of the world's population and one-fifth of global greenhouse gas emissions. For some, the question is purely financial; for others, political factors are slowing the shift.

"We are basically undoing over a century of interdependence between these nations and the global economy," says Deborah Gordon, leader of oil and gas solutions at global energy and climate think tank RMI. "Unwinding this tightly integrated, global market needs to be surgical."

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