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TOPIC: russian invasion

FOCUS: Russia-Ukraine War

Report: Wagner Group Is Back Fighting In Ukraine For First Time Since Aborted Coup

After a sighting by a Ukrainian drone operator, details emerge of how the Russian mercenary group has been redeployed in the strategic Ukrainian city of Bakhmut it had helped conquer earlier this year. That was followed by the dramatic coup and departure from Ukraine led by Wagner's now late leader Yevgeny Prigozhin.

Fighters affiliated with the Wagner Group have once again been spotted on the battlefield near Bakhmut in the Russian-occupied Donetsk region, according to a Ukrainian drone operator. This confirmation supports earlier reports from Russian sources regarding the resurgence of Wagner mercenaries near the strategic city in eastern Ukraine.

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“Wagner is here,” the drone operator said, adding that the Wagnerites had “quickly changed commanders and returned.”

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War Of Attrition, Western Fatigue, U.S. Election: Clock Is Ticking On Ukraine's Fate

Russia is hoping that the West’s support for Ukraine will begin to falter. Kyiv knows this, and is therefore trying to obtain long-term aid agreements — which have the potential to determine their future. But the current Poland-Ukraine row is a troubling sign.

-Analysis-

WARSAW — It's been four months since the Ukrainian Armed Forces mounted their counteroffensive in southeastern Ukraine. The fighting is extremely difficult, and Ukrainian soldiers must make their way through kilometers of mines and fortified lands occupied by Russia.

Few would argue that Ukrainian army’s effort would be more effective if they had modern planes, including the F-16 fighter jets they were promised after several months of negotiations (they will receive the first ones in 2024, at earliest). Ukraine is also seeking long-range missiles: whether a U.S. arsenal of ATACMS missiles, which have a range of 300 kilometers, or Germany's Taurus cruise missiles with a range of over 500 kilometers. For now Washington and Berlin have balked on delivery.

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There was more bad news this week for Kyiv amid a dispute over grain exports with its neighbor and ally Poland, which announced that it wouldn't send new weapons systems to Ukraine, though it will continue to fulfill its existing deals.

But Kyiv has also been facing problems with arms that it has already been promised. In a recent interview with CNN, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that it's now been months that many of the arms Ukraine has been promised have been in an “on-their-way” status.

The Western supplies of arms to Ukraine are not only key to helping their efforts in the counteroffensive. Russia, having a numerical advantage, is trying to wage a war of attrition: wearing down Ukraine until its army has no choice but to collapse. For Radosław Sikorski, a Polish member of the European Parliament, who took part in the recent Yalta European Strategy (YES) conference in Kyiv, said the West must remember what's at stake even more when the battle hardens.

“It’s paradoxical that the human willingness to help is strongest when the victim of aggression is successful, but as soon as they start to have problems, it falls," Sikorski said. "But it is exactly this logic that we must be opposed to. Now is exactly the moment to show our true character: that we are with Ukraine until the end, and not only when things are going well.”

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Pride Or Politics? Why Poland Suddenly Turned Its Back On Ukraine

Poland has taken President Zelensky's criticism at the UN very badly, and has decided to not supply new arms to Ukraine. One man in the Kremlin couldn't be more pleased.

-Analysis-

PARIS — Who could have imagined that the weakest link in support of Ukraine would be Poland? Since the start of Russia's invasion, Warsaw's commitment to Kyiv has been unwavering — initially driven above all by its unbound hostility towards Moscow.

That steadfast support of its neighbor is over now, and in a big way.

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The announcement in Warsaw that Polish arms deliveries to Ukraine were to be halted stunned all, and was accompanied by derogatory statements by Polish President Andrzej Duda towards Ukraine's leaders. He compared Ukraine to a desperate drowning man who would drag down those who tried to save him. Duda was also considered the most reasonable of the Polish populists — so that's the mood.

Poland had shown itself to be uncompromising in its support for Ukraine, and had even given lessons to more timid European countries on several occasions.

So why the U-turn? First of all, there are difficult general elections in Poland on October 15, and it's clear that the Law and Justice Party (PiS) in power in Warsaw will do everything possible to win.

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Worldcrunch Magazine #50 — Why Wars Don't Ever End

September 18 - September 24, 2023

Here's the latest edition of Worldcrunch Magazine, a selection of our best articles of the week from top international journalists, produced exclusively in English for Worldcrunch readers.

>> DISCOVER IT HERE <<

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Geopolitics
Héctor Abad Faciolince

Kissinger v. Allende, A South American Lesson For What's At Stake In Ukraine

The cold arrogance of Henry Kissinger extends from Santiago de Chile half a century ago, where he helped orchestrate the violent overthrow of the leftist President Salvador Allende to his view today on Russia's would-be "sphere of influence."

-OpEd-

BOGOTÁ — More than 50 years ago, there was a tense meeting in Washington between Chile's then Foreign Minister, Gabriel Valdés, and President Richard Nixon's National Security Adviser Henry Kissinger. Valdés, of the Christian Democratic party, had been imprudent enough to tell President Nixon a couple of things to his face: that Latin American states found it very hard to do business with the United States given the enormous economic disparity; and secondly that for every dollar of American aid sent southwards, South America was sending $3.8 back to the United States.

Nixon was furious (as if a servant had been impertinent), and asked Kissinger to set the Chilean diplomat straight, which he did, the next day.

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Kissinger told Valdés that it was "strange" coming to Washington to speak of Latin America, when it had so little importance. "Nothing important can come from the South," he is reported to have said (in Seymour Hersh's The Price of Power). "History has never been produced in the South."

The axis of history, said Kissinger, began in Moscow, and moved through Bonn and Washington toward Tokyo, and Valdés was simply wasting his time.

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FOCUS: Russia-Ukraine War
Szczepan Twardoch

Why Wars Don't Ever End — A Novelist's Notes From The Ukraine Front Line

In Warsaw-based daily Gazeta Wyborcza, Polish writer Szczepan Twardoch poses a crucial question on the front lines of the war in Ukraine: "What will you do when the war ends?" One answer struck him more than any other...

-Essay-

Even if Ukraine manages to defeat Russia, they will never agree to a loss.

Since June, I have been increasingly hearing that the war will end, which has led to several follow-up questions: What will Ukraine look like after the war? Will Volodymyr Zelensky run for president again? What will Russia be like afterwards? What will the security architecture of the two countries be?

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Over time, scholarly analyses of new strategies for victory suddenly replaced analyses of what the world would look like when the war was over.

But why? Is it because of overall fatigue with the war as a constant headline? Or maybe everyone has admitted that there may be no spectacular success for the Ukrainian counteroffensive, that there is a chance of a stalemate, and that it's better to think of what will happen going forward?

Maybe these conversations are already taking place, behind closed doors. Wars have often been fought during negotiations. Could it be that someone is already negotiating?

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FOCUS: Russia-Ukraine War
Piotr Szymański

With Ukraine's International Legion, On The Front Lines Of The Counteroffensive

What draws foreigners to fight in Ukraine? Is it bravery, gall, money — or something else? On the ground with the International Legion, Patryk Szymański investigates for Gazeta Wyborcza.

KYIV — Today, the International Legion selects soldiers more carefully than ever before. To get into the unit, it is not enough just to show up in Ukraine and hope to get into the action.

“If something spills out, hold it," Antoni said, opening his bag and handing me a gun. “Your elbow must be straight; you look into the sight and look for the red dot. This is how you take out the magazine. This is how you insert the next one. You have to push it with your hand. There is no safety — this weapon is always cocked."

I looked at the steppes stretching to the horizon, the towns visible in the distance and the single-lane route stretching in a straight line from Zhytomyr to Kyiv, which is paralyzed by air raid sirens several times a day. I looked at the gun in my hand, then at the Polish soldier next to me. What am I even doing here?

Lee didn't hesitate for a moment. He set out from Liverpool, landed in Poland, then crossed into Ukraine by land. As millions fled from danger, he walked towards it.

He arrived in Kyiv in March, two months before I did. The northern half of the city was still under siege, and massacres were ongoing in Bucha and Hostomel. The rest of the world wouldn’t hear about them for another few weeks.

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FOCUS: Russia-Ukraine War
Viktor Kevlyuk

Denial And Dissent: On The Deeply Conflicted Psychology Of Russian Soldiers

The Ukraine war is not just physical — it's also being fought on a psychological front. Russian soldiers are subjected to complex psychological pressures at home and abroad.

-Analysis-

KYIV — Written messages have recently been found under car windshield wipers, in mailboxes, and on the doors of apartments of the families of Russian military recruits, known as Chmobyk. The messages carried phrases like: "You're the wife of a murderer, we all know!" or "You're the mother of a murderer, we all know."

These notes put substantial psychological pressure on the relatives of Russian soldiers who have been enduring months of unceasing battles.

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In the broader context, psychological warfare has emerged as a pivotal component within Ukraine's strategic arsenal. Within this context, there's a belief that a fighter, despite appearing as an individual, is shaped by moral, political, and psychological factors.

This perspective suggests that there might be instances of split personalities or confusion induced by political manipulation — the alignment of personal ideological and political beliefs, along with moral values, influences behavior and attitudes.

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Geopolitics
Bohdan Miroshnychenko

How Western Technology Is Keeping Russia Stocked With Drones

In spite of commonly-held beliefs that the Russian military is fighting with outdated weaponry and uncoordinated assaults, the truth is that complex weaponry is still making its war onto the Russian side on the front, even in spite of technology sanctions from the West.

-Analysis-

KYIV — How many times have we heard about how Russia is forced to fight with Soviet weapons and capture cities exclusively with barbaric, uncoordinated assaults?

This is only partly true.

Russia has numerous weapons that create serious problems for the Ukrainian Armed Forces. One prime example is the Lancet kamikaze drone. It sneaks beneath radars, its electric motor does not make loud noises, and the mass of the warhead is often sufficient enough to damage heavy machinery.

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Since the war began, the Russians have used some 850 Lancets. Not all of them hit their targets, but the Ukrainian military considers these drones one of the biggest causes for concern on the front line.

Back in July, Kyiv's military commanders stated that Russia had only 50 Lancets left, but the truth is that these drones are by no means running out. Dozens of kamikaze UAVs are still flying, because the Russians are still managing to produce them. And they are not doing it alone.

"Lancets" are packed with complex electronics, which are not produced in the Russian Federation. There are components that are produced in the West, which still get to Russian military factories without any problems. The flows are so large-scale that Russia can not only maintain the old rates of production of these drones, but also increase them.

While it may seem that technological sanctions are having an impact, there are still many obvious gaps in them.

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FOCUS: Russia-Ukraine War
Mikhailo Dubinyanskiy

What Orwell Could Tell Ukraine About Corruption In Wartime

War can unify a nation, but it can also contribute to the deepening of social tensions — especially when times get tough on the front line. A reflection forward, and back, including the experience of George Orwell calling out the bad Brits during World War II.

-Analysis-

KYIVGeorge Orwell left this entry in his diary on September 17, 1940, as London faced Nazi air raids:

“There has of course been a big exodus from the East End, and every night amounts to mass migrations to places where there is sufficient shelter accommodation. The practice of taking a 2d ticket and spending the night in one of the deep Tube stations, e.g. Piccadilly, is growing . . . . . . Everyone I have talked to agrees that the empty furnished houses in the West End should be used for the homeless; but I suppose the rich swine still have enough pull to prevent this from happening.

The other day 50 people from the East End, headed by some of the Borough Councillors, marched into the Savoy and demanded to use the air-raid shelter. The management didn’t succeed in ejecting them till the raid was over, when they went voluntarily. When you see how the wealthy are still behaving, in what is manifestly developing into a revolutionary war, you think of St. Petersburg in 1916.”

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Throughout World War II, the legendary British writer was very much a contrarian : he predicted British defeat in the war, criticized Prime Minister Winston Churchill and was outraged by the behavior of "rich pigs" who did not show enough solidarity with the common people.

Today we know that internal social conflict did not prevent Britain from defeating the attacking enemy. But we also know how much war contributes to the aggravation of social tensions and class hatred. This knowledge comes not only from the past, but also from what we are living through now in Ukraine.

The main Ukrainian anti-heroes of the current summer are the same "rich swine" that Orwell branded back in 1940. In the midst of a bloody war, they spend their downtime in the Maldives and buy villas in Spain ; they import luxury cars into the country and take their well-to-do children abroad; party in elite nightclubs and take major bribes.

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FOCUS: Russia-Ukraine War
Cameron Manley and Michal Kubala

Why F-16s Could Be Decisive For Ukraine

Denmark and the Netherlands have jointly declared their intention to dispatch F-16 fighter jets to bolster the Ukrainian Air Force. Once Ukrainian pilots are trained, it may help tip the balance in Kyiv's favor.

This article was updated on Aug. 21, 2023 at 3 p.m.

-Analysis-

KYIV — After the U.S. announced it will help train Ukrainians on F-16 fighter jets in late May, Yuriy Ignat, spokesman for the Ukrainian air force command, confidently declared: "Once we have the F-16s, we'll win this war."

With Denmark and the Netherlands jointly declaring their intention to dispatch dozens of F-16s to the Ukrainian Air Force (the Netherlands says it will give 42), Kyiv is one major step closer to having the jets in hand.

After the announcement Sunday, Ignat reiterated after his belief that the jets could be the decisive factor. “We won't win immediately, of course," he added. "But the F-16 is capable of changing the course of events, capable of providing us with what we need most today — air superiority in the occupied territories."

Ignat revealed that eight to nine Russian fighter jets currently operate in the occupied regions, deploying aerial bombs and missiles, Kyiv-based Livy Bereg reported. With the F-16s in Ukraine's arsenal, such actions would be significantly hampered, diminishing the Russian capacity to exert air dominance. Ignat reinforced the notion that control over the skies directly translates to success on the ground, thereby making the F-16's strategic value indisputable.

Military experts argue that it may not be as simple as that, but for military pilot instructor and Ukrainian reserve colonel, Roman Svitan, the Western fighters could help cut Ukrainian casualties and even shift the balance in Ukraine's favor during the counteroffensive.

Ukraine has launched a major counteroffensive to expel the Russian forces that have invaded its territory, but the fight has been slow going. Speaking to the independent Russian news site Important Stories, Roman Svitan explained how the F-16s could help Ukraine achieve this objective.

For starters, Ukraine can reach the Azov coast in the southeast under the protection of surface-to-air missile systems and sufficient artillery cover, Svitan explains.

“The ground is as flat as a table," he notes, "so it's easy to pull equipment like artillery there."

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Economy
Carolina Drüten

How The Greek Shipping Industry Is Cashing In On Putin's War

Moscow relies on international shipping companies to ship its oil, especially tankers flying the Greek flag. To protect its lucrative business, Athens is resisting tougher sanctions — and thus playing right into Vladimir Putin's hands.

ATHENS — The world knows by now how much oil revenues help finance Russia's war against Ukraine. Around one-quarter of Russia's budget is still fed by its sale, compared with around one-third before the war. The country requires foreign companies to ship the oil internationally. Since the beginning of the Ukraine war, one European country has been profiting particularly well from the dynamic: Greece.

Greek tankers in particular ship the oil from Russia, especially from Russian ports in the Black Sea. Athens has also made sure to defend its business interests at the European Union level — and thus helped water down the sanctions against Russia, to the great dismay of Ukraine.

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"Shortly after the invasion of Ukraine, Greece deliberately relocated its tanker fleet to Russian ports to transport Russian oil," says Robin Brooks, chief economist at the International Finance Federation (IIF).

In a recent analysis, Brooks examined the routes Russian oil takes through the Black Sea. "Other Western shipping companies withdrew, so margins went up, the business became very profitable," he says.

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