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TOPIC: putin

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Zelensky Visits Breached Dam Area, Australia Bans Nazi Signs, Crocodile Gets Self Pregnant

👋 Сайн уу*

Welcome to Thursday, where Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky visits flood-hit Kherson, Australia announces a national ban on Nazi symbols, and a crocodile is found to have made herself pregnant. Meanwhile, we look at the increase of food counterfeiting around the world, from fake honey in Germany to Canada’s fish laundering.

[*Sain uu - Mongolian]

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Putin's Hidden Message In Dam Explosion: If Cornered, I Will Stop At Nothing

The Nova Kakhovka dam explosion was undoubtedly carried out by Putin, putting both Ukrainian and Russian lives at risk. The explosion makes clear that there are no limits to how far Putin will go. That has been his message since Day One of the war.

-OpEd-

Southern Ukraine is still reeling from the explosion at the Nova Kakhovka dam on the Dnipro River. The surrounding Kherson region, where Ukraine retook several key towns and cities last November, is flooding as water levels on both banks of the river rose by 10 meters, forcing thousands of Ukrainians to evacuate.

The catastrophe may lead to the shutting down of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, the nuclear reactors of which are cooled by water from the Dnipro.

With enormous consequences on a human, environmental and strategic levels, Kyiv and Moscow are blaming each other for the explosion. But it is simply unfathomable that Ukraine could be responsible for the attack — both, because it wouldn't make sense for Ukraine to attack its own people — and because the disaster is a major impediment from Kyiv's much-anticipated military counteroffensive.

Yes, the bombing of the dam was ordered by Russian President Vladimir Putin to try to slow down his coming military losses. But there is another, deeper explanation for this attack at this moment in time: it's a clear message to the world that there are no limits to Putin’s aggression. Especially when his back is against the wall.

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How The Dam Destruction Will Impact Ukraine's Counteroffensive — And What That Tells Us

When both sides of a conflict blame each other for something as important as the destruction of the Nova Kakhovka dam, there's only one way to understand what's going on: find out who benefits from the crime.

-Analysis-

PARIS — Moscow and Kyiv continue to blame each other for blowing up the Nova Kakhovka dam in Russian-controlled Ukrainian territory. The dam's destruction is flooding the region around Kherson, the main town retaken by the Ukrainians last November.

It's a humanitarian and ecological disaster, and a major offense. It's worth pointing out that the Geneva Conventions formally prohibit attacks on dams, dikes or nuclear power plants, so this may constitute a war crime.

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The immediate consequence of this sabotage is that it could hamper a possible Ukrainian counteroffensive in this strategic region. If the Ukrainians had considered launching their long-awaited and much-trumpeted assault in the Kherson region, this is now doubtful.

The flooding and state of the soil over the next few weeks makes the passage of armored vehicles and troops no longer possible.

This could force Ukrainian forces to divert some of their resources to deal with the humanitarian emergency, and to review their attack plans. From this point of view, it's a setback for Kyiv.

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Did Putin Tip Off Dam Attack With A Veiled Nuclear Threat Last Week?

After significant sections of the Nova Kakhovka dam were destroyed in a Russian-controlled part of southern Ukraine, independent Russian media Agents.Media has pieced together Vladimir Putin declarations on May 30 that may have been a warning of a false-flag attack.

The torrent of water unleashed after the attack of the Nova Kakhovka dam has flooded several nearby villages and sparked widespread evacuations. But it has also prompted fears for the security of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, which depends on water from the river for cooling.

The proximity to the plant is, however, not the only link to a possible nuclear risk. After the breach of the dam, the Russian secret service FSB claimed to have thwarted a planned dirty bomb attack on Russian soil. The FSB claim comes exactly a week after Russian President Vladimir Putin raised the specter of a dirty bomb attack and threats to the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, which is just upstream from the Nova Kakhovka dam.

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Commentators have interpreted Putin’s statements as a veiled threat directed towards Ukraine, and the latest allusion to a possible Russian "false flag" operation that is used as a pretext for a major attack in response.

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FOCUS: Russia-Ukraine War
Mykhailo Kriegel

Blue-Yellow Visions, Bioweapon Warnings: The Face Of Russian Paranoia

Today's Russia is similar to Stalin's USSR in more and more ways, including the constant search for enemies and the paranoia of betrayal. Some examples of this panic may be funny, but also help inform what Moscow might do next.

Some compare the regime of Vladimir Putin to the regime of Soviet dictator Joseph Stalin. Sometimes the comparison holds, sometimes it doesn't. But one thing they share is a sense of social panic — and paranoia.

The nature of panic and paranoia often makes it ripe for jokes, though in the end there is little to laugh at in a totalitarian regime. We have gathered some recent signs of the paranoid state of Russian society.

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Take Olga Z., a resident of the Moscow neighborhood, who was taking the metro when a neighbor caught her eye. He wore a yellow jacket with a blue sweatshirt peeking out from underneath. She was also concerned that a man who was a lookalike of Ukrainian nationalist Dmytro Yarosh was sitting beside the suspicious citizen in yellow and blue. She immediately informed the police.

Then there's Svetlana Sharkova, a 60-year-old retiree from the village of Lashino near Moscow, who complained to the police that a local plant nursery was selling seedlings of the Ukrainian apple variety "Glory to the Victors."

Police in the central Russian city of Pyt-Yakh, are investigating a report from the local school principal that a student wore blue and yellow ribbons in her hair.

On a bus traveling from Dzhankoy to Sevastopol in Crimea, a retiree reported to police that he saw a passenger with a tattoo on his leg of Stepan Bandera, the noted World War II-era Ukrainian political lead. The tattoo turned out to be Irish actor Cillian Murphy in the role of Thomas Shelby, a character in the gangster series Peaky Blinders.

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Geopolitics
Dominique Moïsi

Kissinger, The European Roots Of Pure American Cynicism

A diplomatic genius for some, a war criminal for others, Henry Kissinger has just turned 100. An opportunity for Dominique Moïsi, who has known him well, to reflect on the German-born U.S. diplomat's roots and driving raison d'être.

-Analysis-

PARIS — My first contacts — by letter — with the "diplomat of the century" date back to the autumn of 1971. As a Sachs scholar at Harvard University, my teacher, renowned French philosopher Raymond Aron, had written me a letter of introduction to the man who was then President Richard Nixon's National Security Advisor.

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FOCUS: Russia-Ukraine War
Mikhail Khodorkovsky

Khodorkovsky: Don't Count On A Swift End To The War In Ukraine

The West is deceiving itself if it hopes for a quick end to the Ukraine war. Above all, it must consistently implement an energy transition — otherwise, it will remain at Putin's mercy, writes prominent Kremlin critic Mikhail Khodorkovsky, in German daily Die Welt.

-OpEd-

LONDON — In the spring of 2014, I went to Kyiv with a large group of Russians representing the European part of the Russian cultural and social elite to express our solidarity with the Maidan protests in Ukraine, and our disapproval of the Russian annexation of Crimea.

Many of us then flew to Kharkiv and Donetsk to meet with Russian-speaking citizens of Ukraine who were concerned about what was happening.

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In Donetsk, among others, I had a conversation with the leaders of those who stormed the regional administration, including Denis Vladimirovich Pushilin, the current head of the "Donetsk People's Republic." Since then, it has been absurd for me to listen to those who still do not understand that the destabilization of eastern Ukraine and the annexation of Crimea were a "special operation" of the Kremlin from the very beginning.

It is amazing that there are still people who do not understand that Putin is not simply riding the wave of an imperial renaissance in Russia. He is consistently pushing this wave himself, helped by clever propaganda and the direct financing of imperialist-minded national patriots. At the same time, he is suppressing the voices of the sane part of society.

Putin has already used war to solve domestic problems four times (1999 in Chechnya, 2008 in Georgia, 2014 and 2022 in Ukraine) — if you don't count the war in Syria and the de facto annexation of Transnistria, a region in Moldova, which did not "catch on" with public opinion. Putin's main goal is to stay in power, although in recent years there has been a shift toward "legacy." This means a partial restoration of the empire and its influence.

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FOCUS: Russia-Ukraine War
Pierre Haski

Drones On Moscow: Vladimir Putin On The Defensive Like Never Before

In another scenario, Putin could be bragging about Russia's control of Bakhmut after nearly a year of fighting, and the bombing of the Ukrainian Intelligence’s headquarters, which was recently acknowledged by Kyiv. But instead he must retreat to the ultimate home front after drone attacks in the capital.

-Analysis-

PARIS — In February of last year, when Russian President Vladimir Putin dubbed his invasion of Ukraine a “special military operation,” he was telling Russians that it would be over quickly. Now, 15 months later, drones are striking apartment buildings in Moscow, bringing a whiff of war to inhabitants of the Russian capital, who had so far thought they’d been spared.

The psychological shock is far greater than the military impact.

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It is a symbol of the failure of the Russian president’s Ukraine campaign. Pro-war nationalist bloggers were quick to criticize the lack of air defense, which allowed the drones to strike Moscow. But if they had really wanted to taunt the government, they could have compared it with the performance of the Ukrainian air defense which, thanks to Western equipment, knocks down most of the Russian drones and missiles fired at Kyiv.

In the same vein, Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of the mercenary outfit Wagner and rival to Russia's military commanders, commented on his Telegram channel: “The people have a right to ask these questions," and, in a message aimed at the military establishment, added a pointed note: “May your houses burn."

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Geopolitics
Driss Rejichi

A Key New Ally For Russia That Makes The West Cringe: Tunisia

Tunis and Moscow have been increasingly close — at the cost of relations with the West, which had once looked to Tunisia as a model of democracy. The two countries are brought together by Kremlin's efforts to woo African countries, but also a natural alliance of its strongman Presidents Putin and Saïed.

-Analysis-

TUNIS — Back on December 16, a surprising scene was unfolding at the headquarters of the Independent High Authority for Elections. In the chairs of the reception hall, the president of the government agency Farouk Bouasker and four other members of the organization were seated in front of … a Russian delegation.

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Arriving from Moscow the same day, they were members of the Civic Chamber of the Russian Federation, a body that monitors and evaluates public action but has very little power in Vladimir Putin’s regime. Yet they were welcomed with the honors previously reserved to the European Union delegations, and presented with a copy of the new electoral code.

Deployed to Tunisia at the invitation of Farouk Bouasker, close to Tunisia's strongman President Kaïs Saïed, their mission would be to follow and analyze the process of the legislative elections organized the next day. It was the first such meeting since the coup of July 25, 202, when Saied issued an emergency declaration firing the prime minister and assumed all executive power.

It is the first ever delegation of this kind sent by Russia in the country. If their mission doesn’t differ from that of their European predecessors, the context of their coming is far from trivial.

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FOCUS: Russia-Ukraine War
Important Stories

How The Belgorod Incursion Exposes Deep Vulnerability Inside Russia's Military

Russia failed to respond in time to an attack in the Belgorod region, close to the Ukraine border. Now, independent Russian news outlet Vazhnyye Istorii/Important Stories reveals hears from Russian security forces and military analysts about what this week's brazen incursion reveals about the vulnerability country's defenses.

-Analysis-

BELGOROD — On Monday morning, units of the Russian Freedom Legion and the Russian Volunteer Corps, which consist of Russians fighting on the side of Ukraine, entered the Belgorod region, 40 kilometers north of the Ukraine border. About 100 men, using armored vehicles, seized a checkpoint and then several villages.

By Tuesday afternoon, the Russian Defense Ministry reported that the attackers were "blocked and defeated," and local authorities announced the end of what they called anti-terrorist operation.

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The first reports of shelling of settlements in the Belgorod region appeared around 11:00 a.m. on Monday. Soon, Ukrainian telegram channels began posting videos from the Grayvoron border crossing point. The Russian Volunteer Corps published a video showing its fighters riding on a Russian armored personnel carrier seized at the checkpoint. In the afternoon, the Russian Freedom Legion told the Russian publication Vazhnyye Istorii/Important Stories that the Russian military tried to cover the fighters with artillery and air strikes.

On Tuesday morning, the Russian Freedom Legion reported that the fighters were still on Russian territory. Vyacheslav Gladkov, governor of the Belgorod region, wrote about the "mopping up" of the area.

According to Novaya Gazeta, Europe, the Russian military command brought more than 4,000 people and some 100 vehicles to the Belgorod region.

By Tuesday evening, the governor of the Belgorod Region reported the gradual return of civilians to the border regions and the beginning of restoring the power supply. According to the authorities, 13 civilians were injured by the shelling, and two were killed — a resident and an older woman who died of a heart attack.

Though the current situation on the ground is not clear, Ukrainian formations continue to publish videos from Russian territories.

Contacted by Vazhnyye Istorii, source close to the Federal Security Service, believes that the action of Ukrainian units near Russia's borders showed the helplessness of the Russian state at this stage. "It's a failure; I don't understand how this could have happened," he says.

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Pierre Haski

Russians Or Ukrainians — Or Both? Attacks Inside Russia Are A Major Escalation

While military attention was focused on the harshly contested city of Bakhmut, fights were reported on the other side of the border in Russian territory. But it was Russian groups that claimed responsibility.

-Analysis-

Moscow is accusing Ukrainian commando units of crossing the border and attacking Russian targets, but the raid was claimed by two anti-Putin Russian organizations. They posted videos, impossible to verify, showing Russians in uniforms riding in captured armored vehicles, or of themselves bragging about having taken down a helicopter.

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It’s not the first time that such incursions have happened: In March, fighting had occurred in villages a few hundred meters away from the border. They were claimed by the same organizations. What is new is the announcement of the capture of a locality and the intention to create a controlled zone in Russia - an objective that still seems beyond their capacities.

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FOCUS: Russia-Ukraine War
Important Stories

The Four Ways Russians Clear Their Conscience About Ukraine

A new report has done a deep dive into the support (or lack of opposition) of ordinary Russians for the so-called "special military operation" in Ukraine. Independent Russian media outlet Important Stories breaks down the findings, which don't necessarily follow the rationale one might imagine.

-Analysis-

MOSCOW — Since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, one question has been difficult to answer: Is this Putin’s war or Russia’s war?

A recent report called "Resigned to the Inevitable," put together by the independent research group Laboratory of Public Sociology, aims to answer this question by analyzing the idea of Russian "support" for the war. Through interviews with 88 Russians who did not oppose the violence conducted during the fall and winter of 2022, the report reveals that "support" for the “special military operation” often materializes in the form of non-resistance.

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The report also makes clear the four methods Russians use to clear their conscience about the "special operation."

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