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TOPIC: geopolitics

Geopolitics

The Trudeau-Modi Row Reveals Growing Right-Wing Bent Of India's Diaspora

Western governments will not be oblivious to the growing right-wing activism among the diaspora and the efforts of the BJP and Narendra Modi's government to harness that energy for political support and stave off criticism of India.

-Analysis-

NEW DELHICanadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has brought Narendra Modi’s exuberant post-G20 atmospherics to a halt by alleging in parliament that agents of the Indian government were involved in the murder of Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a Canadian national, in June this year.

“Any involvement of a foreign government in the killing of a Canadian citizen on Canadian soil is an unacceptable violation of our sovereignty,” Trudeau said. The Canadian foreign ministry subsequently expelled an Indian diplomat, who was identified as the head of the Research and Analysis Wing (RAW), India’s foreign intelligence agency, in Canada. [On Thursday, India retaliated through its visa processing center in Canada, which suspended services until further notice over “operational reasons.”]

Trudeau’s announcement was immediately picked up by the international media and generated quite a ripple across social media. This is big because the Canadians have accused the Indian government – not any private vigilante group or organisation – of murder in a foreign land.

Trudeau and Canadian state services seem to have taken this as seriously as the UK did when the Russian émigré Alexander Litvinenko was killed, allegedly on orders of the Kremlin. It is extraordinarily rare for a Western democracy to expel a diplomat from another democracy on these grounds.

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The Nagorno-Karabakh Debacle: Bad News For Putin Or Set Up For A Coup In Armenia?

It's been a whirlwind 24 hours in the Armenian enclave, whose sudden surrender is reshaping the power dynamics in the volatile Caucasus region, leaving lingering questions about the future of a region long under the Russian sphere of influence.

-Analysis-

It happened quickly, much faster than anyone could have imagined. It took the Azerbaijani army just 24 hours to force the Armenian enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh to surrender. The fighting, which claimed about 100 lives, ended Wednesday when the leaders of the breakaway region accepted Baku's conditions.

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Thus ends the self-proclaimed "Republic of Artsakh" — the name that the separatists gave to Nagorno-Karabakh.

How can we explain such a speedy defeat, given that this crisis has been going on for nearly three decades and has already triggered two high-intensity wars, in 1994 and 2020? The answer is simple: the Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh backed themselves into a corner.

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A U.S.-Iran $6 Billion Prisoner Exchange: Ransom Or Realpolitik?

With $6 billion freed up to go in the coffers of the corrupt and repressive regime in Tehran, nobody is happy. But sometimes there is no alternative to the imperfect nature of international diplomacy.

-Analysis-

PARIS — We find ourselves in the kind of scenario John Le Carré would have written about: five prisoners on one side, five on the other, brought to the same place at the same time for an exchange of freedom — simultaneously, $6 billion are transferred to bank accounts. The significant difference is that Cold War prisoner exchanges of Le Carré stories usually took place in Berlin; here, we are in Doha, Qatar, and the prisoners are American and Iranian.

The agreement carried out Monday is making a big splash. Principally because it has been a long time since there have been positive news between Washington and Tehran, and one can legitimately wonder if there will be any repercussions on the impasse regarding the Iranian nuclear issue.

But this exchange is also controversial: it has its critics in the United States who accuse the Biden administration of paying a "ransom" and putting all Americans at risk.

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Putin & Kim: What Happens When Two Pariahs Have Nothing Left To Lose

North Korea lends its full support to Russia's war in Ukraine, and will supply ammunition to Moscow, which in return will help Kim Jong-un with his space ambitions. With the whiff of a Cold War alliance, it shows how two regimes that have become so isolated they multiply the risks for the rest of the world.

-Analysis-

There's a feeling of nostalgia watching the meeting between Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un at the Vostochny cosmodrome in Russia's Far East.

To hear the third descendant of North Korea's communist dynasty tell the Russian president that they were fighting imperialism together recalls a past that seemed long forgotten.

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It reminds us of how Joseph Stalin backed the founder of Pyongyang's ruling dynasty, Kim Il Sung, the current leader's grandfather, in his quest to take over Korea. Since succeeding his father 11 years ago, Kim Jong-un has looked to follow the model of his grandfather.

There's no doubt that North Korea's talented propaganda team will make good use of this anti-imperialism remake, even if times and men have changed. Seen from Pyongyang, not so much. But beyond the symbols, which have their importance, this meeting may have tangible consequences.

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Future
Pierre Haski

Is There Any Way To Rein In The Power Of Big Tech?

A new biography of the Tesla, X (formerly Twitter) and Space X boss reveals that Elon Musk prevented the Ukrainian army from attacking the Russian fleet in Crimea last year, by limiting the beam of his Starlink satellites. Unchecked power is a problem.

This article was updated Sept. 14, 2023 at 12:20 p.m

-OpEd-

PARIS — Nothing Elon Musk does leaves us indifferent. The billionaire is often admired for his audacity, and regularly criticized for his attitude and some of his decisions.

A biography of the founder and CEO of Tesla and Space X, came out today in the United States — 688 pages published by Simon & Schuster and written by William Isaacson (the renowned biographer of Steve Jobs and Albert Einstein).

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One revelation from this book is making headlines, and it's a big one. Elon Musk — brace yourselves — prevented the Ukrainian army from destroying the Russian Black Sea fleet last year.

A bit of context: Starlink, the communications and internet satellite constellation owned by Musk, initially enabled Ukraine to escape Russian blackout attempts.

But when the Ukrainian army decided to send naval drones to destroy Russian ships anchored in Crimea, it found that the signal was blocked. And Starlink refused to extend it to Crimea, because, according to Issacson, Musk feared it would trigger World War III.

It's dizzying, and raises serious questions.

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Geopolitics
Pierre Haski

Where To Look When The Very Idea Of Peace Is Gone?

The signing of the Oslo Accords 30 years ago was followed by a failure that set back the very idea of peace between Israelis and Palestinians. A look back at this historic episode and the lessons we can learn from it today.

-Analysis-

PARIS — Thirty years ago to the day, I was standing in Jerusalem's Old City, near the Jaffa Gate. Two young Palestinians were putting up a poster of Yasser Arafat when an Israeli guard appeared.

Everyone froze in fear, thinking a confrontation was about to happen. But the soldiers went on their way without a care in the world for the young Palestinians. Arafat's face appeared on a wall in Jerusalem.

A few hours later, thousands of miles away, on the White House lawn, the famous handshake took place between the leader of the Palestine Liberation Organization and Israeli leaders Yitzhak Rabin and Shimon Peres, overseen by U.S. President Bill Clinton.

They had just signed the Oslo Accords, which they hoped would put an end to a century of conflict — just like the scene of détente I had witnessed in Jerusalem.

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Geopolitics
Pierre Haski

Why Morocco Still Won't Accept Earthquake Aid From France?

Time is the most precious resource when it comes to disaster relief, and yet French teams have been left waiting for Morocco's approval for their aid. Looking at recent tensions might explain why the country is hesitating on accepting help in a time of such dire need.

Updated September 12, 2023 at 1:20 p.m.

-Analysis-

PARIS — Major humanitarian disasters can sometimes provide an opportunity to overcome hostilities between nations – but they can also be missed opportunities.

The earthquake that struck Morocco on Friday night has had a significant impact in France, not only due to the large Franco-Moroccan community here, but also because of the longstanding human connection between France and its former Maghreb protectorate.

Yet 72 hours after the disaster, the offers of assistance from the French government, including those from Emmanuel Macron himself, had still not received a response from Rabat. Meanwhile, Morocco had given the green light to relief efforts from Qatar, Tunisia and Spain. Spain is the only European country with 56 military rescuers already on the ground.

France possesses undeniable expertise and resources in the field of emergency relief, and if there is one area where every minute counts, it is the search for survivors. By Tuesday, the death toll had topped 2,800. Yet French teams, including search dogs and equipment, are still awaiting clearance to deploy from French soil. The Americans find themselves in a similar situation.

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Economy
Pravin Sawhney

Why India Should Bet On A BRICS Future (And Let G20 Pass On By)

With the G20 in New Delhi around the corner, India risks finding itself the wrong side of history, and end up as an observer and not one of the drivers of a "once in a lifetime" change.

-Analysis-

NEW DELHIIndia may believe it is in strategic competition with China over leadership of the Global South but the recent BRICS meet made it clear who is calling the shots. Watching from afar, the U.S.-led G7 nations could see that China was the key determinant of the summit’s accomplishments and that their own influence over the developing world had diminished substantially.

The biggest unsaid gain made by China was the deft shifting of its global geopolitical game – based on "common prosperity and cooperative security" — from east Asia to the 54-nation African continent. The attendance of some 35 African nations at the Johannesburg summit as South Africa’s invitees, followed by 50 African nations attending the third China-Africa Peace and Security forum in Beijing on Aug. 29 is testimony to the attraction President Xi Jinping’s "Global Development Initiative" (GDI) and "Global Security Initiative" (GSI) hold for the Global South.

The focus of the China-Africa Peace and Security forum was on peacekeeping (most of China’s 2,700+ peacekeepers are in Africa), counterterrorism, cyber security, humanitarian aid and military education.

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Society
Fabian Peltsch

Meet The Taiwanese Buddhists Head-Banging To Enlightenment Through Death Metal

Death metal is considered the most soulless music of all. But the Taipei-based Buddhist death metal band Dharma is proving otherwise. Their music may also even be a secret weapon in the island's stand-off with China.

This article was update Sep. 1 at 10:40 a.m.

TAIPEI — Six robed figures follow the orange-robed nun onto the stage, gazing rigidly at the floor. A gently swinging sound bowl accompanies her steps. Incense sticks spread the smell of sandalwood. Then the procession stops in one fell swoop. A gong sounds, and all hell breaks loose. Guitar riffs tear through the solemn silence. From the booming basses, chants emerge that the Western listener would most likely associate with Gregorian chanting. It is a mantra written in the ancient Indian language of Sanskrit — "Aryavalokiteshvara Bodhisattva Vikurvana Dharani" — which is supposed to grant the grace of Buddha's light to the one who sings it.

The Taiwanese band Dharma underpins traditional sutras with Death Metal, perhaps the heaviest form of rock music in which violence and death are the usual themes. At the background of the stage, which is now bathed in red light, a Buddhist wheel of life rotates, which draws more and more spectators into a maelstrom of bodies in front.

A spectator sitting in the lotus position above the crowd.This kind of meditative crowd surfing is already a tradition at Dharma gigs. Also, the fist is not raised in the air for the devil's greeting as is usually done at metal concerts. The fans fold their hands for the Anjali Mudra, a gesture of reverence and humility known in this country mainly from yoga classes. But the neck-breaking spectacle has little to do with silent mindfulness and Gong Bath relaxation.

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Sources
Pierre Haski

Why Ukraine Is Turning To France For Help In Africa — And How That Could Backfire

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba is in Paris seeking help to convince Africa to abandon its wait-and-see attitude, which benefits Russia. It's an extraordinary illustration of how Africa is singularly focused on emancipating itself from its former colonizers.

-Analysis-

PARIS — The African continent and its 54 states lie at the heart of the world's current restructuring. Courted for its raw materials, Africa has become one of the main arenas for global power struggles — with votes at the UN scrutinized for what they may say about different countries' alignments.

France has been shaken in its former colonial stomping grounds in French-speaking Africa, with French President Emmanuel Macron speaking firmly Monday in response to the crisis that erupted with the military coup in Niger. But this is just one example of the great geopolitical chess match being played out in Africa.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba is in Paris on Tuesday, as guest of honor at the annual French Ambassadors' Conference. He will be attending an unprecedented meeting with all the French ambassadors to Africa. The aim: to help Ukraine develop its message towards Africa, to convince it to abandon its wait-and-see attitude, which benefits Russia.

It's an extraordinary move, which illustrates the difficulty of dealing with an Africa that wants to emancipate itself from the tutelage of its former colonizers, at the risk of sacrificing state sovereignty in the process.

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Geopolitics
Pierre Haski

Why The End Of Western Hegemony Is Not (Necessarily) The End Of The West

The West is losing influence on many fronts, embodied in the rise of the BRICS alliance as a kind of "counter-G7." But Western leaders will need to decide if they want to be part of this change, or its victim.

PARIS — It's a concept that comes up ever more regularly: the "de-Westernization of the world," a loss of influence that manifests in economic, geopolitical, and of course, demographic terms.

It arose again during last week's summit of the BRICS nations, this club of emerging countries that has now decided to expand from five to 11 members. Their main unifying characteristic is simply being non-Western, a negative definition that provides a common ground for countries as diverse as China, Saudi Arabia and Argentina.

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Ideas
Mariam Claren

A Birthday Message For My Mother, An Innocent 69-Year-Old Held In Iranian Prison

For the third year in a row, Nahid Taghavi, a retired architect and German citizen, is in Tehran's brutal Evin Prison, where she has been mistreated after being wrongly convicted on trumped up charges as the Iranian regime exploits her foreign citizenship for money and influence.

-OpEd-

COLOGNE — My mother, a German architect, is being held hostage by Iran. Monday is her birthday, and she will spend it in prison.

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