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TOPIC: erdogan

Society

What's Changed, What Hasn't: A Turkish Political Prisoner Walks Free After 31 Years

Mehmet Aytunç Altay was finally released last month after being arrested in Istanbul for his political activity in 1993. The world around has changed, even if his convictions stand firm.

ISTANBUL — Mehmet Aytunç Altay spent 31 years of his life behind bars.

While he was behind bars, governments came and went; Turkey changed, as did the world. Technological advances like smartphones and social media changed the way we live our daily lives. Mob bosses, murderers and rapists were released from prison during multiple rounds of pardons during that time.

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Israel's Crisis Is Part Of The Wider Siege On Democracy

The Israeli government's aggressive bid to curb judicial powers fits into a bigger picture of the degradation of liberal democracy worldwide.

-Editorial-

The institutional storm that has all but paralyzed Israel for months is an extreme illustration of a wider distortion of the relative places of power, institutions, the law and minorities in public life. A typical component of this democratic deformation is the recurring bid to curtail the judiciary and its mediating powers.

Extremist legislators in Israel, while a minority in terms of seats, have taken hold of the public agenda and are insisting on a less-than-novel idea that unelected judges must not be allowed to intervene in political decisions or the business of legislation.

In other words, state institutions cannot question or check elected officials. It is a grotesque idea loved by populists of the Left and the Right, notably in our own region. As a strategy, it has been implemented in states such as Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela, though the Israelis will not want to be compared with such murky regimes.

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Unpacking Erdogan's Charm Offensive In The Gulf (It's Complicated)

Recep Tayyip Erdogan's recent tour of Gulf states is proof that the Turkish president aims to repair his country's diplomatic ties in the region, all the while looking for investment for Ankara's floundering economy. Quite the reversal of fortunes considering that not so long ago Gulf countries faced accusations of sponsoring the 2016 coup attempt in Turkey.

ISTANBUL — After traditional stops in Turkish-occupied Northern Cyprus and Azerbaijan, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan recently went on an official tour of Arabian Gulf countries, highlighting the importance he pays to the region. The Turkish markets were promptly boosted by news of economical collaboration and investment opportunities.

The goal of Erdogan’s rushed visits to Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar is obvious: it's the economy, stupid, no matter how much government pundits try to argue that both sides are looking for multidimensional collaborations. Turkey needs foreign investments, and the sooner, the better.

The easiest doors to knock on are those of the deep-pocketed kingdoms and emirates of the Gulf. Qatar, especially, is an emirate that Turkey has been close to even at its loneliest times, but relations between the two countries have been rather problematic lately. The Gulf countries, in particular, were not so long ago presented by government-friendly media in Turkey as the sponsors of a coup attempt in 2016 against the Turkish president. However, problems date back from even before that, when the coup in Egypt unfolded.

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Why Erdogan Is Watching Modi's Seduction Of The West So Closely

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi was received warmly in the U.S. and in France — visits which must have provoked some jealousy in Turkey, where President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who faces many of the same anti-democratic criticisms as Modi, can't expect the same kind of red-carpet welcome in Washington.

-Analysis-

ISTANBUL — It has been a pretty good month for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, which included greenlighting Sweden's NATO membership and holding a one-on-one meeting with U.S. President Joe Biden.

Based on these news, and not long after Turkey's recent presidential election, it looks like Erdogan is taking steps to straighten out his relations with the West. Finally, a chance to leave the tension-filled recent years behind, despite numerous ongoing issues.

However, some on the other side of the world are waltzing through the doors Erdogan can barely crack open. While Ankara deals with weapon embargoes, alongside political and economic pressures, some leaders with similar policies are welcomed on the red carpet.

I’m talking about the kind reception Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi received recently,first in the U.S. and then in France. Modi’s visit to the U.S., about a month ago, was shadowed by the Wagner mercenary uprising in Russia, but it was a development that was worth talking about.

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In The News
Michal Kubala, Chloé Touchard, Michelle Courtois and Anne-Sophie Goninet

Turkey’s NATO Green Light For Sweden, Israel Protests Reignite, Hottest Week Ever

👋 Lumela!*

Welcome to Tuesday, where the NATO summit kicks off in Vilnius after Turkey OKs Sweden's bid to join, Israel’s controversial judicial reforms spark fresh protests and after the official hottest month and day ever, meteorologists register a record-breaking week. Meanwhile, Portuguese digital magazine Mensagem looks at how global warming, with its heat waves, could also incite violence in cities.

[*Sesotho, Lesotho, South Africa and Zimbabwe]

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Geopolitics
Pierre Haski

Reading Biden In Vilnius: NATO Is About To Make Ukraine Stronger Than Ever

Ahead of the Vilnius NATO summit, Joe Biden said Ukraine joining NATO while the war is on is a non-starter. But it's also a done deal once Kyiv has vanquished its Russia invaders.

-Analysis-

PARIS — NATO has 31 members, but in the end, it's Washington that decides. All suspense about Ukraine joining the transatlantic defense organization was lifted by President Joe Biden as he left the White House for this week's NATO Summit in Vilnius, Lithuania. The U.S. President told CNN that Ukraine was not ready to join the organization immediately. The die was cast.

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This was to be expected, despite the over-the-top hopes expressed by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and his most ardent supporters on NATO's eastern flank. Giving membership to Ukraine in the middle of its war was unthinkable: it meant, in effect, that the military alliance would go to war with Russia — this is something nobody wants, as Biden reminded us in so many words.

But that's not the end of the story. President Zelensky, who is expected to be in Vilnius on Wednesday, will not be leaving the summit empty-handed.

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Geopolitics
Pierre Haski

What Five More Years Of Erdogan Mean For Turkey – And The World

Recep Tayyip Erdogan has cemented his already tight grip on power in Turkey, winning an unprecedented third term as president. The West had hoped for a slightly less unpredictable leader, but they will have to make peace with an emboldened Erdogan, who may become even more autonomous.

-Analysis-

PARIS — The re-election of Recep Tayyip Erdogan did not come as a surprise, as Turkey's incumbent president’s lead in the first round was reaffirmed yesterday.

The real surprise had occurred in the first round, contradicting Turkish polls and analyses that predicted the president, in power for 20 years, would be penalized by the deep economic crisis and the devastating earthquake in February. However, that was not the case — or at least not entirely: Erdogan had to face a second round for the first time but was not threatened by Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the candidate of the united opposition.

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Geopolitics
Pierre Haski

Turkey Elections: The Risk Of Escalation Has Multiplied

Both Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his challenger, Kamel Kilicdaroglu, have cast doubt on the first round results. Heading into the second round on May 28, recalling recent examples, in the U.S. and Brazil, we may again see what happens when a populist is faced with giving up power.

-Analysis-

On the one hand, Turkey's 90% voter turnout is enough to make tired European and American democracies green with envy. Yet this desire to participate, to have a voice — the very hallmarks of citizenship — has not prevented an instant crisis in confidence following the first round of Turkish national elections.

Already Sunday evening, when the early results were announced, both sides launched accusations, and mistrust had taken hold.

It was bound to happen, with the same party and the same man, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, ruling the country for two decades. He considers the state his property, and has instilled the idea that he is indispensable, the only person who can govern legitimately.

Meanwhile, his opposition has finally united around a strong candidate, Kamel Kilicdaroglu. And they too, feeling the winds of change rising, have convinced themselves that only fraud could prevent their party from winning.

In the end, after hours of suspense, tension and emotions, a second round seems to be the only option. Erdogan himself even admitted it, after trying to proclaim himself winner of the first round. The next two weeks will be fraught in the divided country, which must make a very real choice between two distinct political paths and individuals. The risk of escalation is immense.

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Geopolitics
Pierre Haski

The West Is Dreaming Of Erdogan’s Defeat, Very Quietly

Western leaders hope the end is coming for the reign of Turkey's longtime leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan, but saying it too loudly is just too risky in geopolitical terms.

-Analysis-

PARIS — Always thinking about it, never talking about it. In Paris, Berlin or Washington, few would shed a tear if Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan were defeated in Sunday’s presidential election. On the contrary, they would be delighted.

But no one in these capital cities would dare say a word about Turkey that could be considered as an “interference” by the outgoing president or, worse, as foreign support to his rival, the opposition candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu.

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Geopolitics
Vincent Collen

If Erdogan Loses, Will Turkey Revive Its Bid For EU Membership?

An opposition victory in the elections would be good news for the currently disastrous relations between Ankara and the European Union. But the 27 EU members may not yet be ready to consider Turkey's integration into the EU.

BRUSSELS — In the seat of the EU, and in other European capitals, leaders are eagerly awaiting the results of the Turkish presidential elections — hoping for a victory of the opposition.

Still, all remain cautious about the prospect of the end of the longtime reign of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. "Whether Erdogan retains power or the opposition wins, this will not radically change relations between Turkey and the European Union, at least initially," says Benjamin Couteau, a researcher at the Jacques Delors Institute.

A win for the opposition led by Kemal Kilicdaroglu would undoubtedly improve relations between Ankara and the EU, which have become atrocious since Erdogan's authoritarian turn.

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Geopolitics
Murat Sevinç

Kemal Kilicdaroglu, The Tranquil Force To Save Turkey's Democracy

The 74-year-old veteran politician has a solid chance of unseating Erdogan from power after 20 years. Kilicdaroglu has displayed the kind of calm and open attitude to save Turkish democracy.

-OpEd-

ISTANBUL — The world may soon get to know Kemal Kilicdaroglu well. The leader of the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) is the presidential candidate of the six-party opposition coalition challenging the lengthy rule of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his Justice and Development Party (AKP).

Polls now show that the 74-year-old veteran politician and trained economist has a solid chance to garner more than 50% of the ballots in May 14 first round of voting to take the presidency.

If Kilicdaroglu is elected, we’ll witness a long transition period to replace Erdogan, who first rose to power as prime minister in 2003, before moving on to the presidency in 2014 after a Constitutional reform changed Turkey's democracy into a presidential system.

A Kilicdaroglu victory would be a new experience for Turkey, and some of it will be made up on the go — no matter how much planning may go into it.

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Geopolitics
Mehmet Y. Yılmaz

If Defeated, Will Erdogan Give Up His Palace Life?

A tale of Turkey's second president accepting defeat begs the question of whether Recep Tayyip Erdogan would accept election defeat on May 14, and return to life as a private citizen.

-Analysis-

ISTANBUL — As we eagerly wonder what awaits us the evening of election day May 14, I want to take you on a trip back exactly 73 years ago. We’re going to May 14, 1950 in the Çankaya Mansion, the former presidential residence of Turkey in the capital of Ankara.

That evening, President İsmet İnönü, the successor to modern Turkey’s founder Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, had cast his vote alongside his wife Mevhibe at the Çankaya Elementary School early in that morning.

The Mansion’s room No: 18 has already started to liven up in the afternoon. This great room with a billiards table was used by the aides and took its name from the number of the interior phone line in it: 18. But it wasn't until the evening that reports on the election results started to come in. The President was the only calm person as his aides, ministers and the presidential staff were following the results with nervous excitement.

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