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TOPIC: donbas

FOCUS: Russia-Ukraine War

Why F-16s Could Be Decisive For Ukraine

Denmark and the Netherlands have jointly declared their intention to dispatch F-16 fighter jets to bolster the Ukrainian Air Force. Once Ukrainian pilots are trained, it may help tip the balance in Kyiv's favor.

This article was updated on Aug. 21, 2023 at 3 p.m.

-Analysis-

KYIV — After the U.S. announced it will help train Ukrainians on F-16 fighter jets in late May, Yuriy Ignat, spokesman for the Ukrainian air force command, confidently declared: "Once we have the F-16s, we'll win this war."

With Denmark and the Netherlands jointly declaring their intention to dispatch dozens of F-16s to the Ukrainian Air Force (the Netherlands says it will give 42), Kyiv is one major step closer to having the jets in hand.

After the announcement Sunday, Ignat reiterated after his belief that the jets could be the decisive factor. “We won't win immediately, of course," he added. "But the F-16 is capable of changing the course of events, capable of providing us with what we need most today — air superiority in the occupied territories."

Ignat revealed that eight to nine Russian fighter jets currently operate in the occupied regions, deploying aerial bombs and missiles, Kyiv-based Livy Bereg reported. With the F-16s in Ukraine's arsenal, such actions would be significantly hampered, diminishing the Russian capacity to exert air dominance. Ignat reinforced the notion that control over the skies directly translates to success on the ground, thereby making the F-16's strategic value indisputable.

Military experts argue that it may not be as simple as that, but for military pilot instructor and Ukrainian reserve colonel, Roman Svitan, the Western fighters could help cut Ukrainian casualties and even shift the balance in Ukraine's favor during the counteroffensive.

Ukraine has launched a major counteroffensive to expel the Russian forces that have invaded its territory, but the fight has been slow going. Speaking to the independent Russian news site Important Stories, Roman Svitan explained how the F-16s could help Ukraine achieve this objective.

For starters, Ukraine can reach the Azov coast in the southeast under the protection of surface-to-air missile systems and sufficient artillery cover, Svitan explains.

“The ground is as flat as a table," he notes, "so it's easy to pull equipment like artillery there."

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On Ukraine's "Slow" Counteroffensive: Do You Even Know When The War Began?

After months of anticipation, expectations were impossibly high when Ukrainian forces finally launched a counteroffensive into Russian-occupied territory. But those expecting a lightning advance, like last year's liberation of Kharkiv, overlooked one critical fact: the war is nearly 10 years old.

-Analysis-

If the war in Ukraine were a Hollywood movie, the counteroffensive would be the final 20-minute stretch, just before Ukrainian tanks roll into Crimea and liberate the last village. Roll credits.

Of course, as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reminded the BBC this week, life isn’t like the movies. Both because real "people's lives are at stake,” and also because time passes much more slowly in the reality of war.

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We’ve seen months of expectation and speculation, deliveries of new weapons to Ukraine and the return to the battlefield of freshly-trained soldier – but when the action finally started, and it turned out that Ukrainians were liberating occupied territory through brutal fighting, one village per week, there was a sense of worry and disappointment.

There was a critical error in those optimistic calculations.

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The Real Purpose Of The Drone Strikes Inside Russia? A Decoy For Ukraine's Counterattack

Putin is hesitant to mobilize troops for political reasons. And the Ukrainian military command is well aware that the key to a successful offensive lies in creating new front lines, where Russia will have to relocate troops from Ukraine and thus weaken the existing front.

This article was updated at 8 p.m. local time May 31 with reports of new strikes inside Russia

-Analysis-

On the night of May 30, military drones attacked the Russian capital. There were no casualties – just broken windows and minor damage to homes. Ukraine claims it had nothing to do with the attack, and it is instead the frenzied artificial intelligence of military machines that do not understand why they are sent to Kyiv.

While the Ukrainian president’s office jokes that someone in Russia has again been smoking somewhere they shouldn’t, analysts are placing bets on the real reasons for the Moscow strikes. Many believe that Kyiv's real military target can by no means be the capital of Russia itself: it is too far from the front and too well defended – and strikes on Russia, at least with Western weapons, run counter to Ukraine’s agreements with allies, who have said that their weapons cannot be used to attack inside Russia.

Eight apartment buildings, four homes, a school and two administrative buildings were damaged during the shelling in Shebekino, a village in the border region of Belgorod, its governor said, as the oblast increasingly becomes a hotbed of straying violence.

On Wednesday, new reports of a “massive” shelling attack inside Russia's borders that injured at least four people in Belgorod and a drone sparked a fire at an oil refinery further south.

If the goal is not directly military, maybe it is psychological: to scare the residents of the capital, who live in a parallel reality and have no idea how life feels for Ukrainian civilians. Forcing people to live with this reality could push the Kremlin to retreat, or at least make concessions and negotiate with Kyiv. If neither sanctions nor the elite could sober Vladimir Putin up, could angry Muscovites?

But neither Russia's military command nor its political leadership depends on the opinion of citizens. And there are enough special forces in Moscow to crush any mass protest.

Laying bare Russian President Vladimir Putin’s inability to guarantee his country's security, in front of Russia’s remaining international partners or among the country’s elites, is also an unlikely goal. The Russian army has already seen such embarrassing failures that a few drone strikes on the Kremlin can’t possibly change how Putin is seen as a leader, or Russia as a state. So why would Kyiv launch attacks on Moscow?

Let's go back to the date of the shelling: May 29 is Kyiv Day, a holiday in the Ukrainian capital. It was also the 16th attack on Kyiv in May alone, unprecedented in its scale, even compared to the winter months when Russia had still hoped to cut off Ukrainian electricity and leave Kyiv residents, or even the whole country, freezing in the dark.

The backdrop: the Ukrainian counter-offensive to liberate the occupied territories, which is in the works, if not already launched.

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Russians Or Ukrainians — Or Both? Attacks Inside Russia Are A Major Escalation

While military attention was focused on the harshly contested city of Bakhmut, fights were reported on the other side of the border in Russian territory. But it was Russian groups that claimed responsibility.

-Analysis-

Moscow is accusing Ukrainian commando units of crossing the border and attacking Russian targets, but the raid was claimed by two anti-Putin Russian organizations. They posted videos, impossible to verify, showing Russians in uniforms riding in captured armored vehicles, or of themselves bragging about having taken down a helicopter.

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It’s not the first time that such incursions have happened: In March, fighting had occurred in villages a few hundred meters away from the border. They were claimed by the same organizations. What is new is the announcement of the capture of a locality and the intention to create a controlled zone in Russia - an objective that still seems beyond their capacities.

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FOCUS: Russia-Ukraine War
Oleksandr Kalinichenko

When Will Ukraine Join NATO? All Eyes On Vilnius, And The Frontline

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has accepted an invitation to attend the next NATO summit in July, but he will arrive with expectations that the alliance is ready to pave the way for the country's accession to the military alliance, even as the state of the war itself remains crucial to the decision.

-Analysis-

KYIV — After years of unsuccessful efforts, Ukraine seems closer than ever to joining NATO — but debate within the alliance on Ukraine's membership is heated, and developments on the battlefield may shape Ukraine's path. With the next summit for the Western military alliance set for July in Vilnius, Lithuania, what does Kyiv now expect of NATO?

Ukraine has been trying to become a member of the Western military alliance since 2008. Constant promises of membership without specific deadlines have become a political trap that a full-scale war could only level.

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FOCUS: Russia-Ukraine War
Olga Kirylenko

From The Trenches Of Avdiivka, Ukraine's Hell On Earth

Journalists from Ukrainska Pravda report directly from the trenches near Avdiivka, one of the oldest settlements in the eastern Donetsk region of Ukraine, where troops are facing near-constant Russian fire.

“Get down!”

Machine gun fire whistling overhead is interrupted by the shout of a combat medic named Petro. Five people, including three soldiers and two journalists from Ukrainian publication Ukrainska Pravda fall to the snow.

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The sound of ringing bullets seemed distant to Petro's team and, as those under fire always hope, didn't come too close to hitting.

“Are you all good?” Petro asks after a few seconds.

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Geopolitics
Carolina Drüten

Putin's Covert Move On Moldova Has Begun — A Replay Of Eastern Ukraine In 2014

Recent protests in Moldova confirm that the ex-Soviet country is in the Kremlin's sights. If Putin manages to politically destabilize the ex-Soviet country, he could win an important ally in the war against Ukraine. The tactics are strikingly familiar to what the Kremlin pulled off in Donbas nine years ago.

-Analysis-

"Down with dictatorship!" protesters roared, "Down with Maia Sandu!"

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Thousands of people were gathered earlier this week in the streets of Chisinau, the capital of Moldova to demand the overthrow of the country's democratically elected president. It was not a spontaneous demonstration: they had been carted to the central location in tour buses.

The "dictatorship" they were railing against was Sandu, its pro-European president, who is orienting the country toward the West. To Russia's displeasure.

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FOCUS: Russia-Ukraine War
Anna Akage

A Decisive Spring? How Ukraine Plans To Beat Back Putin's Coming Offensive

The next months will be decisive in the war between Moscow and Kyiv. From the forests of Polesia to Chernihiv and the Black Sea, Ukraine is looking to protect the areas that may soon be the theater of Moscow's announced offensive. Will this be the last Russian Spring?

Ukrainian forces are digging new fortifications and preparing battle plans along the entire frontline as spring, and a probable new Russian advance, nears.

But this may be the last spring for occupying Russian forces.

"Spring and early summer will be decisive in the war. If the great Russian offensive planned for this time fails, it will be the downfall of Russia and Putin," said Vadym Skibitsky, the deputy head of Ukrainian military intelligence.

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Skinitysky added that Ukraine believes Russia is planning a new offensive in the spring or early summer. The Institute for the Study of War thinks that such an offensive is more likely to come from the occupied territories of Luhansk and Donetsk than from Belarus, as some have feared.

Still, the possibility of an attack by Belarus should not be dismissed entirely — all the more so because, in recent weeks, a flurry of MiG fighter jet activity in Belarusian airspace has prompted a number of air raid alarms throughout Ukraine.

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Russia
Cameron Manley

Is A Christmas Truce In Ukraine Possible?

Few see reason right now for holiday optimism, though Christmas ceasefires have happened multiple times since the conflict in Donbas started in 2014. A new call by religious leaders has raised hope for at least a pause in the fighting.

Last year at this time, there was good news coming out of Donbas: the simmering seven-year conflict in eastern Ukraine would see a much needed holiday season ceasefire. Negotiators from the Trilateral Contact Group, along with the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, had helped seal a Christmas truce. There was even hope that the pause in fighting could lead to a wider de-escalation between pro-Russian forces and Ukrainian troops, and even a lasting peace.

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Of course, we know what happened next. Not only did the ceasefire not last long (like others before it in Donbas), but two months later Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Now, over the past 72 hours, a widening effort is underway for a new Christmas truce in Ukraine.

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In The News
Anna Akage and Emma Albright

First Snow In Ukraine Falls On Second Day Of Mass Air Strikes On Power Grid

Is this what Vladimir Putin's winter plans look like?

For the second straight day, Russia has launched a massive nationwide air attack against the infrastructure targets of major Ukrainian cities. Reports of explosions, buildings on fire and energy cuts were reported in Kyiv, Donbas, Dnipro and other cities around Ukraine.

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Russians fired at least 16 cruise missiles and launched five drones in the overnight hours and early morning, with Ukrainian defense forces managing to shoot down four cruise missiles and five Iranian-made Shahed kamikaze drones over Kyiv.

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In The News
Anna Akage, Sophia Constatino and Emma Albright

After Kherson, How Russia's Army Could “Fold Like A House Of Cards”

Kyiv has no intentions of letting Russian troops regroup with any "operational pause." Events will begin to move quickly in Donbas, and may be heading for Crimea sooner rather than later.

Following last week’s recapture of Kherson, the Ukrainian army does not intend to allow Russia any “operational pause” to regroup and regain strength.

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The U.S. Institute for the Study of War predicts that Russia will likely launch a new offensive in the Donetsk region. Ukraine is then expected to use the forces freed up after pushing the Russian army out of the western Kherson region to reinforce the current offensive in the Luhansk region.

In an interview after the liberation Friday of Kherson, Mykhailo Podolyak, top advisor to the Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, said that the situation at the front will develop very quickly from now on.

"The heaviest battles will be in the direction of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhya. Especially in the Donetsk direction, where combat-capable Russian military units exist,” he said.

Podolyak added that the push will happen independently of weather conditions. “No one will give Mr. Putin, Mr. Surovikin, or Mr. Shoigu any opportunity to get an operational pause", he said, referring to Russia’s President, the general in charge of the war in Ukraine, and Russia’s defense minister.

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In The News
Chloé Touchard, Lisa Berdet, Lila Paulou and Anne-Sophie Goninet

Brazil Runoff, More Ukraine Gains, Iran Protests Go Global

👋 Bok!*

Welcome to Monday, where Brazil’s presidential elections go to a runoff, Indonesia launches a probe into a tragic stampede that left at least 125 dead in a soccer stadium, and the Nobel prize season starts with the medicine award. Meanwhile, Die Welt’s Stefan Schocher reports from a village just a few kilometers from what is now the Ukraine-Russia “border” in Putin's eyes.

[*Croatian]

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