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TOPIC: belarus

In The News

Russia Accuses U.S. Of Enabling “Terrorists”, N. Korea Satellite Fail, NZ Air Weight

👋 Grüss Gott!*

Welcome to Wednesday, where Russia accuses the U.S. of encouraging cross-border "terrorist" attacks, a North Korean military reconnaissance satellite launch fails and New Zealand air travels must weigh in. Meanwhile, Hannelore Crolly and Ricarda Breyton in Berlin-based daily Die Welt unpack reports that Belarus strongman Alexander Lukashenko may be trying to create another migrant crisis in the EU, with Russia’s help.

[*Swabian, Germany]

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Belarus May Be Pushing Migrants Into The EU Again — This Time With Russian Help

In 2021, Belarus strongman Lukashenko triggered a migration crisis when he actively drove asylum seekers to the EU. According to the German government, those numbers are on the rise again.

-Analysis-

BERLIN — In the nine months between July 2022 and March 2023 alone, Germany's Federal Police registered 8,687 people who entered Germany undocumented after a Belarus connection. This has emerged from the Ministry of the Interior's response to an inquiry by MP Andrea Lindholz, deputy chair of the Christian Social Union (CSU) parliamentary group, which was made available to Die Welt.

The migration pressure on the Belarus route — which was now supposedly closed after a huge crisis in 2021 that saw Belarus strongman Alexander Lukashenko threatening to "flood" the EU with drugs and migrants — has thus increased significantly again.

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"Apparently, about half of the people who enter the EU illegally every month via the German-Polish border enter the EU via Belarus," Lindholz told Die Welt. In an autocratic state like this, border crossings on this scale are certainly no coincidence, she said. "It is obvious that these illegal entries are part of a strategy to destabilize the EU."

In addition to flexible controls at the border with Poland, stationary ones are also needed, said Lindholz. Interior Minister Nancy Faeser should agree on a concrete roadmap with Poland "on how to significantly reduce illegal entries into Germany." Lindholz also called on the German government to revoke landing permits for airlines that facilitate illegal migration via Russia and Belarus.

The Belarus route had already caused concern throughout the EU in 2021. At that time, sometimes highly dramatic scenes took place at the border with Poland. Thousands of migrants tried to enter the EU undocumented — many of them transported there by soldiers or border guards of Belarusian ruler Alexander Lukashenko. Poland even feared an attempt to break through the border en masse.

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Is Lukashenko Sick? Putin Too? Why Ukraine Won't Be Waiting For Dictators To Die

A spate of speculation on the health of Belarus strongman Alexander Lukashenko follows similar reports about would-be Vladimir Putin illnesses. Such talk feeds the hope of the Russian opposition and many in the West. Ukrainians have a different agenda — and timetable.

-Analysis-

Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko was not enjoying the parade.

Appearing in Moscow’s Red Square for the May 9 Victory Day celebration, the 68-year-old strongman looked quite ill, and wore a bandage on his arm.

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He missed the Kremlin breakfast and didn't take the walk with Vladimir Putin and other heads of state across the Square to the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier, reaching it by electric car instead, reports independent Russian news outlet Agents.Media reports reports.

When he then missed the Belarus celebration of the Day of the State Flag, Emblem and Anthem, rumors started to circulate that Lukashenko might have a serious health problem.

And for nearly a week, he vanished.

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No Compromise: What's Driving Poland's New Hard Line On Russia

"We are realists, and therefore we do not believe in the possibility of a compromise between freedom and slavery..." Poland's foreign minister has outlined what the country's foreign strategy will look like in the coming years, built on support of Ukraine and steadfast resistance to the Russian aggressors.

-Analysis-

WARSAW — In 2023, Poland’s six-year foreign policy strategy came to an end. Last week, Polish foreign minister Zbigniew Rau presented a report on the new goals and tasks for Polish foreign policy over the coming years.

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And not surprisingly, Ukraine is by far the most mentioned topic in Rau's report. It has its own section, but it also affects how Poland views the level of cooperation it should have with foreign countries.

That level depends on the position they took in the Russian-Ukrainian war, especially the non-European countries.

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Geopolitics
Pierre Haski

Macron's Message To Xi Jinping: Chinese Weapons To Russia Would Change Everything

Ukraine was the trickiest part of French President Emmanuel Macron's state visit to China. And though Xi Jinping didn't say much, Macron made his voice clear on the war and possible arms shipments to Russia — and the West is watching closely.

-Analysis-

BEIJING — French President Emmanuel Macron and Chinese leader Xi Jinping were missing just one outstanding passage in the final Franco-Chinese declaration: the statement on the war in Ukraine. Everything else had been negotiated beforehand by the advisors of the two heads of state.

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Ukraine was indeed the most delicate part of Macron's state visit to China, particularly in light of the Chinese President's recent visit to Moscow and his proclamations of eternal friendship with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Indeed, there was a surprising pas de deux on Ukraine between Emmanuel Macron and Xi Jinping, during a public meeting of the two presidents in front of the international press. Macron said out loud what Xi did not say at all, but he stated it in such a way that it seemed to engage the Chinese side. Xi remained indifferent while the monumental People's Palace in Beijing, a stone's throw from the Forbidden City, echoed with words never heard here: On Russian aggression, on war crimes, on deported Ukrainian children, on the return to the borders of Ukraine…

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FOCUS: Russia-Ukraine War
Cameron Manley

Russia Boasts Of Capturing A Ukrainian Orphan Who'd Tried To Return Home

Last spring, after Moscow's troops occupied Mariupol, minors with no parents were forced from the southern city to go to Russia. One 17-year-old recently tried to escape, and return home to be with his sister. He didn't make it — and Russia proudly shared the story.

A 17-year-old Ukrainian who'd been forcibly taken from occupied Mariupol to Russia at the start of its full-scale invasion was trying to return home, but was captured by Russian security forces at the border with Belarus and will be sent back to Russia.

Maria Lvova-Belova, the so-called ombudsman for Children's Rights in Russia, held a press conference on Tuesday to share the news that Russian security forces had detained Bogdan Ermokhin and returned him to a "foster family" in Russia.

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Lvova-Belova said that Ermokhin had been emotionally manipulated and threatened by Ukrainian “agents” into returning back to Ukraine, where he has a sister. The agents supposedly organized transport and financial support for Ermokhin. “He was deceptively lured out,” she said, “at the last moment, we managed to stop him.”

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FOCUS: Russia-Ukraine War
Oleksandr Demchenko

Nuclear Weapons In Belarus — Why It May Have Been Xi Jinping's Idea

To trace Moscow's decision to transfer nuclear weapons to Belarus, we may need to look to Beijing — and the recent summit of Xi Jinping-Vladimir Putin

-Analysis-

Vladimir Putin has decided to raise the nuclear stakes even further — to violate the Non-Proliferation Treaty by announcing his intention to deploy tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus.

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Geopolitics
Pierre Haski

Russian Nukes In Belarus: Lessons From Putin's Cheapest Blackmail Yet

Of course Russia's announcement of moving tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus should not be underestimated. But the reality is that, since the beginning of the invasion, Russia's nuclear situation has not changed. We should instead look hard at where both Minsk and Beijing have wound up.

-Analysis-

PARIS — It's yet another episode of atomic blackmail: Russian President Vladimir Putin has once again raised the threat of nuclear weapons announcing that some tactical nuclear weapons — "small" bombs intended for use on the battlefield — will be moved to Belarus.

The silos are not expected to be finished before July, Putin says — so the threat is not immediate. But this announcement is already causing a stir, as has happened every time over the past year when Moscow has raised the threat of nuclear apocalypse. Why does Putin continue to play this card?

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First, it's important to note that Putin is not afraid of self-contradiction. The day before the Belarus announcement, he signed a declaration with Chinese leader Xi Jinping stating that "nuclear powers should not deploy nuclear weapons outside their territory." Putin could point out that Americans are doing exactly that in some NATO countries, but the contradiction still says a lot about the limits of Russian commitments.

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Geopolitics
Paolo Valenti

NGO Crackdowns Are Spreading, In Both Dictatorships And Democracies

NGOs around the world are facing difficulties as governments criminalize them. The crackdown leaves states less accountable, while the biggest victims are the most vulnerable.

“It just so happens that people who value freedom the most are often deprived of it.”

These words from Belarusian human rights advocate Ales Bialiatski upon being awarded the 2022 Nobel Peace Prize strike an extra bitter chord now: last Friday a Minsk court sentenced him to 10 years in prison.

Founder and chair of Viasna, a Minsk-based non-governmental organization (NGO), Bialiatski had been arrested in July 2021 alongside two of his colleagues for “financing of group actions grossly violating the public order.” The charges were denounced as politically motivated by U.N. human rights experts.

Belarus strongman Alexander Lukashenko has earned a reputation for its hostility towards human rights organizations and opposition groups. But crackdowns and criminalization of NGOs are not unique to Belarus — indeed, they’re not even limited just to authoritarian regimes.

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FOCUS: Russia-Ukraine War
Igar Ilyash

Alliance Or Annexation: What Are Putin's Ultimate Plans For Belarus?

Putin has stated in the past that Ukraine and Belarus should be a part of the Russian Federation. But his plans in Belarus have been postponed by war on the other neighbor, and the shrinking room for maneuver of Minsk's strongman Alexander Lukashenko

-Analysis-

MINSK — A document was recently leaked to the press that was reportedly commissioned two years ago by the Russian presidential administration: "Strategic Goals of the Russian Federation on the Belarusian Direction."

This plan provides for the complete subordination of Belarus's political, economic, and cultural life by 2030. Belarusian laws are to be brought in line with Russian regulations, the Russian language is to dominate over the Belarusian language, and the influence of "pro-Western nationalist forces" is to be limited.

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A separate section is devoted to "passportization" — that is, the issuing Russian identity documents to Belarusians under a simplified procedure. At the final stage, the plan envisages forming a common legal system, introducing a single currency, total control over the information field, completely unifying the customs and tax space, and creating a common command system of the armed forces.

Interestingly, Belarus strongman Alexander Lukashenko did not deny the reality of the document, adding that he didn't see anything outrageous in the Kremlin's plans.

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Geopolitics
Pierre Haski

Why All Sides Are Calling For Peace Talks In Ukraine, And Nobody Means It

Russia says it's willing to negotiate for peace in Ukraine, but won't make any territorial concessions; meanwhile, China presents a half-baked peace plan. It's a masterclass in talking out of both sides of your mouth.

-Analysis-

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said this week that Russia was in favor of negotiation to end the war in Ukraine. But in the same breath, he added that there would be "no compromise" on what he described as "new territorial realities" — that is, the Russian annexation of parts of Ukraine.

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A perfect example of how to say you are ready to negotiate, while also saying you are not.

This trickery neatly sums up the situation. At this stage, no one is truly prepared to negotiate, but at the same time, they must act as if they are, to avoid looking like the one standing in the way of peace. This applies to Russia, which is still trying to use force to take over the entire Donbas region — only some of which remains under its control.

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In The News
Emma Albright, Ginevra Falciani, Bertrand Hauger and Anne-Sophie Goninet

Closing In On Bakhmut, More West Bank Violence, Messi’s FIFA Crown

👋 Dobrý deň!*

Welcome to Tuesday, where Russian troops close in on Bakhmut, violence continues in the West Bank and The Weeknd makes Spotify history. Meanwhile, La Stampa recounts the events that led to the tragic shipwreck off the coast of Italy in which at least 64 migrants were killed.

[*Slovak]

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