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TOPIC: belarus

FOCUS: Russia-Ukraine War

How Russia And Belarus Are Cracking Down On Exiles — And A Passport Fix To Fight Back

Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko is making it impossible for citizens who've fled the country to renew their passports, which may make some effectively stateless. What are some possible solutions?

Under strict new measures introduced by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, foreign embassies may no longer issue documents to Belarusians. This will make it impossible for Belarusians outside of the country to renew passports unless they return — which could lead to criminal prosecution for some who fled after the 2020 protests.

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Russia, on the other hand, has adopted a different approach to encourage the return of its citizens abroad. After considering a 30% tax on emigrants' income, they settled on a 13% personal income tax rate.

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What Awaits The Ex-Prisoners Recruited By Wagner? For Now, Drinking Poolside

The last of the former convicts who served under the Wagner mercenary are heading home. According to private Telegram chats of the soldiers' relatives, many are currently staying in resorts and hotels along the Black Sea awaiting pardons, and behaving badly. Some may end up staying on with Wagner in Belarus.

Before launching its aborted mutiny last month, the Wagner Group mercenaries stirred controversy by recruiting Russian convicts to serve on the frontline of the war in Ukraine. Thousands of often dangerous criminals signed up for at least a year on the front in exchange for their freedom, with a pardon from their jail sentences after their service.

But this infamous practice appears to have ended recently, with Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin now having to decide what to do with all former prisoners who served as mercenaries.

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“Project K is closed,” a Wagner representative wrote in a Telegram chat, referring to the name of the convict-recruiting program

Many of the former convicts are now in hotels in or near the coastal town of Anapa on the Black Sea, waiting for official pardons or their contracts to expire. Vazhnyye Istorii learned about this after identifying messages of relatives of mercenary ex-convicts and representatives of the group in their private chats.

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Why Is The “Traitor” Prigozhin Already Back In Russia?

The post-coup mystery continues with reports that Wagner founder Yevgeny Prigozhin is not, in fact, in Belarus, but in Russia. A look at what it says about Vladimir Putin's hold on power.

-Analysis-

Betrayals aren't what they used to be.

Less than a month ago, Russian President Vladimir Putin appeared on television talking about a "stab in the back."

We were already imagining the culprit's likely punishment: Novichok, the chemical poison that eliminated former spy Sergei Skripal. Some people advised Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the Wagner mercenary group who had launched an aborted coup attempt against Putin, to let someone else taste his tea before drinking it.

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Now, the Wagner boss, exiled to Belarus after his brief march on Moscow, is already back in Russia. He is reported to be in Saint Petersburg, or possibly even in the capital.

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How Prigozhin's Presence Is Feeding Tensions At Belarus-Poland Border

Described as everything from a "migrant invasion" to a "hybrid attack", the crisis along Poland's border with Belarus has been heating up for the past two months. But the conflict has now been made worse by the arrival of the Wagner mercenary grouop in Belarus. This leaves migrants, many fleeing conflict elsewhere, stuck between the two borders.

This article has been updated on July 3, 2023 at 12:00

BIAŁYSTOK — Polish authorities had already been arming themselves for months in preparation for provocations and hybrid attacks from across the Belarusian border. But for the past week,tensions have multiplied since the Russian owner of the Wagner group — Yevgeny Prigozhin — arrived in Belarus after his aborted coup attempt.

On Sunday, Poland decided to send 500 more police from its counter-terrorism and riot control divisions to the border, citing the increased level of border crossing attempts, as well as the relocation of Wagner Group members.

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Prigozhin's presence in Belarus followed negotiations with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, which provided that he would be exiled from Russia, rather than prosecuted for his attempted armed rebellion last week. Other members of the Wagner group are also reportedly settling in Belarus, though none have appeared in public for the past 10 days.

The increased geopolitical tensions in Belarus “could mark a new phase of hybrid warfare, a phase much more difficult than the one we have faced so far,” Poland's deputy prime minister and longtime ruling party leader Jarosław Kaczyński told audiences at a press conference last week. "Decisions have been made to strengthen our defense on the eastern border.”

Kaczyński's sentiments were echoed by Defense Minister Mariusz Błaszczak, who told Polish state broadcaster TVP that Poland "can expect hybrid attacks with the participation of these people", leading him and other senior government officials to reinforce security along the Polish border.

Polish inhabitants along the border fear that the zone may be closed once again, as it was when the crisis began, and Poland declared a state of emergency. Meanwhile, refugees, many from the war-torn areas of the Middle East, are stuck between two armies, fighting to survive.

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FOCUS: Russia-Ukraine War
Dominique Moïsi

Why A Weaker Putin Is Actually More Dangerous

Wagner mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin’s aborted coup against Russian President Vladimir Putin reveals the great confusion that reigns in Russia, and the weakness of the Kremlin's leader — but it's a weakness that makes him all the more unpredictable.

-Analysis-

It's too early to tell what really happened between the Russian cities of Rostov-on-Don, Voronezh and the capital Moscow — not to mention Minsk the capital of Belarus, where the solution to the recent coup attempt was apparently reached, and where its leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, will seek refuge.

The argument both sides used to justify the compromise — "to spare Russian blood” — is almost shocking, given how little the two parties in the coup, Wagner mercenary Prigozhin and Russian President Vladimir Putin, care about human lives, whether Russian or Ukrainian.

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Still, there are a few lessons we can take away from this deeply confusing episode. Since the Wagner revolt, Putin has become both weaker and more dangerous — and his thinking, and maybe even intentions, have become clearer over the last few hours.

The short speech he gave on Saturday morning, in which he denounced the “traitors” behind the coup attempt, will remain in the eyes of historians as an essential document for understanding Putin, and to illustrate his about-face. Like former U.S. President Barack Obama in Syria, he too set a red line and didn't stick to it.

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In The News
Marine Béguin, Yannick Champion-Osselin, Sophie Jacquier and Anne-Sophie Goninet

Ukraine Targets Crimea, Pope & Lula, Musk v. Zuck

👋 Dumela!*

Welcome to Thursday, where Ukraine says it has struck a road in Russian-occupied Ukraine that leads to Crimea, time is running out in the search for the missing submarine and Lula meets Pope Francis, just back from the hospital. Meanwhile, Alfonso Masoliver, for Spanish daily La Razón, travels with Rwandan fishermen on the silent waters of one of Africa's largest lakes.

[*Tswana, Botswana and South Africa]

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In The News
Marine Béguin, Emma Albright, Sophie Jacquier and Anne-Sophie Goninet

Russia Accuses U.S. Of Enabling “Terrorists”, N. Korea Satellite Fail, NZ Air Weight

👋 Grüss Gott!*

Welcome to Wednesday, where Russia accuses the U.S. of encouraging cross-border "terrorist" attacks, a North Korean military reconnaissance satellite launch fails and New Zealand air travels must weigh in. Meanwhile, Hannelore Crolly and Ricarda Breyton in Berlin-based daily Die Welt unpack reports that Belarus strongman Alexander Lukashenko may be trying to create another migrant crisis in the EU, with Russia’s help.

[*Swabian, Germany]

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FOCUS: Russia-Ukraine War
Hannelore Crolly, Ricarda Breyton

Belarus May Be Pushing Migrants Into The EU Again — This Time With Russian Help

In 2021, Belarus strongman Lukashenko triggered a migration crisis when he actively drove asylum seekers to the EU. According to the German government, those numbers are on the rise again.

-Analysis-

BERLIN — In the nine months between July 2022 and March 2023 alone, Germany's Federal Police registered 8,687 people who entered Germany undocumented after a Belarus connection. This has emerged from the Ministry of the Interior's response to an inquiry by MP Andrea Lindholz, deputy chair of the Christian Social Union (CSU) parliamentary group, which was made available to Die Welt.

The migration pressure on the Belarus route — which was now supposedly closed after a huge crisis in 2021 that saw Belarus strongman Alexander Lukashenko threatening to "flood" the EU with drugs and migrants — has thus increased significantly again.

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"Apparently, about half of the people who enter the EU illegally every month via the German-Polish border enter the EU via Belarus," Lindholz told Die Welt. In an autocratic state like this, border crossings on this scale are certainly no coincidence, she said. "It is obvious that these illegal entries are part of a strategy to destabilize the EU."

In addition to flexible controls at the border with Poland, stationary ones are also needed, said Lindholz. Interior Minister Nancy Faeser should agree on a concrete roadmap with Poland "on how to significantly reduce illegal entries into Germany." Lindholz also called on the German government to revoke landing permits for airlines that facilitate illegal migration via Russia and Belarus.

The Belarus route had already caused concern throughout the EU in 2021. At that time, sometimes highly dramatic scenes took place at the border with Poland. Thousands of migrants tried to enter the EU undocumented — many of them transported there by soldiers or border guards of Belarusian ruler Alexander Lukashenko. Poland even feared an attempt to break through the border en masse.

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FOCUS: Russia-Ukraine War
Anna Akage

Is Lukashenko Sick? Putin Too? Why Ukraine Won't Be Waiting For Dictators To Die

A spate of speculation on the health of Belarus strongman Alexander Lukashenko follows similar reports about would-be Vladimir Putin illnesses. Such talk feeds the hope of the Russian opposition and many in the West. Ukrainians have a different agenda — and timetable.

-Analysis-

Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko was not enjoying the parade.

Appearing in Moscow’s Red Square for the May 9 Victory Day celebration, the 68-year-old strongman looked quite ill, and wore a bandage on his arm.

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He missed the Kremlin breakfast and didn't take the walk with Vladimir Putin and other heads of state across the Square to the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier, reaching it by electric car instead, reports independent Russian news outlet Agents.Media reports reports.

When he then missed the Belarus celebration of the Day of the State Flag, Emblem and Anthem, rumors started to circulate that Lukashenko might have a serious health problem.

And for nearly a week, he vanished.

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FOCUS: Russia-Ukraine War
Yury Panchenko and Nadia Koval

No Compromise: What's Driving Poland's New Hard Line On Russia

"We are realists, and therefore we do not believe in the possibility of a compromise between freedom and slavery..." Poland's foreign minister has outlined what the country's foreign strategy will look like in the coming years, built on support of Ukraine and steadfast resistance to the Russian aggressors.

-Analysis-

WARSAW — In 2023, Poland’s six-year foreign policy strategy came to an end. Last week, Polish foreign minister Zbigniew Rau presented a report on the new goals and tasks for Polish foreign policy over the coming years.

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And not surprisingly, Ukraine is by far the most mentioned topic in Rau's report. It has its own section, but it also affects how Poland views the level of cooperation it should have with foreign countries.

That level depends on the position they took in the Russian-Ukrainian war, especially the non-European countries.

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Geopolitics
Pierre Haski

Macron's Message To Xi Jinping: Chinese Weapons To Russia Would Change Everything

Ukraine was the trickiest part of French President Emmanuel Macron's state visit to China. And though Xi Jinping didn't say much, Macron made his voice clear on the war and possible arms shipments to Russia — and the West is watching closely.

-Analysis-

BEIJING — French President Emmanuel Macron and Chinese leader Xi Jinping were missing just one outstanding passage in the final Franco-Chinese declaration: the statement on the war in Ukraine. Everything else had been negotiated beforehand by the advisors of the two heads of state.

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Ukraine was indeed the most delicate part of Macron's state visit to China, particularly in light of the Chinese President's recent visit to Moscow and his proclamations of eternal friendship with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Indeed, there was a surprising pas de deux on Ukraine between Emmanuel Macron and Xi Jinping, during a public meeting of the two presidents in front of the international press. Macron said out loud what Xi did not say at all, but he stated it in such a way that it seemed to engage the Chinese side. Xi remained indifferent while the monumental People's Palace in Beijing, a stone's throw from the Forbidden City, echoed with words never heard here: On Russian aggression, on war crimes, on deported Ukrainian children, on the return to the borders of Ukraine…

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FOCUS: Russia-Ukraine War
Cameron Manley

Russia Boasts Of Capturing A Ukrainian Orphan Who'd Tried To Return Home

Last spring, after Moscow's troops occupied Mariupol, minors with no parents were forced from the southern city to go to Russia. One 17-year-old recently tried to escape, and return home to be with his sister. He didn't make it — and Russia proudly shared the story.

A 17-year-old Ukrainian who'd been forcibly taken from occupied Mariupol to Russia at the start of its full-scale invasion was trying to return home, but was captured by Russian security forces at the border with Belarus and will be sent back to Russia.

Maria Lvova-Belova, the so-called ombudsman for Children's Rights in Russia, held a press conference on Tuesday to share the news that Russian security forces had detained Bogdan Ermokhin and returned him to a "foster family" in Russia.

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Lvova-Belova said that Ermokhin had been emotionally manipulated and threatened by Ukrainian “agents” into returning back to Ukraine, where he has a sister. The agents supposedly organized transport and financial support for Ermokhin. “He was deceptively lured out,” she said, “at the last moment, we managed to stop him.”

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