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TOPIC: azerbaijan

Geopolitics

Oil Dependence: Three Wars, One Lesson

Ukraine, Israel, Azerbaijan: the three conflicts highlight energy vulnerability.

-Analysis-

PARIS Ukraine, Israel , Azerbaijan: the three conflicts brewing on Europe's borders confirm, each in a unique way, the risk we continue to face by depending so heavily on hydrocarbons and their producers, who have used them as a prime geopolitical tool.

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After suffering so much from renouncing Russian gas, Europe must now be concerned about the energy it is importing from Azerbaijan — a country which has just invaded part of Armenia — and the sharp price hikes caused by the recent terror and violence in the Middle East.

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Genocide To Ethnic Cleansing, Why Europe Has Forsaken Armenians Again

As Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh are forced to flee their homes, is culture or corruption or something more sinister forcing a people to suffer so greatly a century after a genocide tried to wipe them out?

-OpEd-

TURIN — When we hear that an animal is endangered, — maybe even at risk of being extinct — our collective outrage pushes us to defend its survival, passionately. And yet we can't seem to muster the willingness to do anything about the Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh.

The more than 100,000 Armenians who have left their land in a matter of days did not choose to abandon a land to which they have been attached for centuries, nor did they choose to abandon their ancient churches and monasteries, which will be destroyed with bulldozers. They were forced to do so to save their lives.

The European Union has not lifted a finger to protest against the Azerbaijanis or to stop the ethnic cleansing of an ancient people from the land they have occupied for millennia.

In fact, they insist on calling the Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh separatists, adopting the Azerbaijani point of view. How can a people who have lived in that territory, without ever leaving it for 2,500 years, be considered separatist?

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Serbia And Kosovo: A Local Conflict Turns Dangerously International

Tension are rising between Serbia and Kosovo, taking on an international dimension with Russia lending its support to Serbia, while NATO has long had a presence in Kosovo. There is only one real solution to such a historic feud over territory and ethnicity, and it's called: Europe.

-Analysis-

PARIS An unresolved conflict is always a potential time bomb. That's what happened last week in the Caucasus, with Azerbaijan's recapture of Nagorno-Karabakh, driving thousands of Armenians into exile. And it is also what is threatening Europe's southern flank, with violence breaking out between Serbia and Kosovo.

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Poland To Stop Sending Weapons To Kyiv, India Suspends Canadian Visas, King’s Triomphe

👋 Kwei!*

Welcome to Thursday, where Poland says it will stop supplying Ukraine with weapons, India suspends visas for Canadians as diplomatic row escalates, and Kyrgyz shepherds come to Sicily’s rescue. Meanwhile, Laura Rique Valero of independent Spanish-language media El Toque tells the story of skilled Cuban workers forced by the government to take jobs abroad, and then preventing them from ever coming home.

[*Atikamekw, Quebec, Canada ]

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Geopolitics
Pierre Haski

The Nagorno-Karabakh Debacle: Bad News For Putin Or Set Up For A Coup In Armenia?

It's been a whirlwind 24 hours in the Armenian enclave, whose sudden surrender is reshaping the power dynamics in the volatile Caucasus region, leaving lingering questions about the future of a region long under the Russian sphere of influence.

-Analysis-

It happened quickly, much faster than anyone could have imagined. It took the Azerbaijani army just 24 hours to force the Armenian enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh to surrender. The fighting, which claimed about 100 lives, ended Wednesday when the leaders of the breakaway region accepted Baku's conditions.

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Thus ends the self-proclaimed "Republic of Artsakh" — the name that the separatists gave to Nagorno-Karabakh.

How can we explain such a speedy defeat , given that this crisis has been going on for nearly three decades and has already triggered two high-intensity wars, in 1994 and 2020? The answer is simple: the Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh backed themselves into a corner.

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In The News
Anne-Sophie Goninet and Laure Gautherin

Karabakh Ceasefire, Zelensky’s UN Speech, Charly In Paris

👋 *سَلام

Welcome to Wednesday, where ethnic Armenian authorities in Nagorno-Karabakh and Azerbaijani officials agree to a ceasefire, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky delivers a passionate speech at the UN General Assembly, and King Charles III kicks off his first official visit to France . Meanwhile, Ekaterina Mereminskaya in Russian independent news outlet Vazhnyye Istorii looks at how Moscow’s manipulation of energy prices for its short-term stability may jeopardize the long-term financial health of Russia’s oil and gas sector.

[*Salaam - Persian]

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Geopolitics
Pavel Lysyansky*

The 'Union State' — Inside Putin's Plans To Rebuild The USSR With A 1990s Treaty

What are Vladimir Putin's long-term goals in Ukraine? An overlooked treaty from the mid-1990s reveal that his ambitions go far beyond Ukraine to building a Russian Empire 2.0.

What does Vladimir Putin want?

One big clue is the “Union State”, a supranational organization consisting of Russia and Belarus that was founded in 1996. The union aimed to gradually create a single political, economic, military and cultural space.

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But Putin’s vision for the union doesn’t stop with Belarus . He has been quietly but diligently building the formations of the USSR 2.0 for decades.

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Geopolitics
Oleksandr Demchenko

One By One, The Former Soviet Republics Are Abandoning Putin

From Kazakhstan to Kyrgyzstan, Armenia and Tajikistan, countries in Russia's orbit have refused to help him turn the tide in the Ukraine war. All (maybe even Belarus?) is coming to understand that his next step would be a complete restoration of the Soviet empire.

-Analysis-

KYIV — Virtually all of Vladimir Putin's last remaining partner countries in the region are gone from his grip. Kazakhstan, Armenia, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan have refused to help him turn the tide in the Ukraine war, because they've all come to understand that his next step would be a complete restoration of the empire, where their own sovereignty is lost.

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Before zooming in on the current state of relations in the region, and what it means for Ukraine's destiny, it's worth briefly reviewing the last 30 years of post-Soviet history.

The Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) was first created in 1992 by the Kremlin to keep former republics from fully seceding from the former Soviet sphere of influence. The plan was simple: to destroy the local Communist elite, to replace them with "their" people in the former colonies, and then return these territories — never truly considered as independent states by any Russian leadership — into its orbit.

In a word - to restore the USSR .

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Geopolitics
Lina Attalah

Women, Life, Freedom: Iranian Protesters Find Their Voice

In the aftermath of the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini, who was arrested by the morality police mid-September for not wearing her hijab properly, many Iranians have taken the streets in nationwide protests. Independent Egyptian media Mada Masr spoke to one of the protesters.

On September 16, protests erupted across Iran when 22-year-old Mahsa Amini died in custody after being arrested and beaten by morality police for her supposedly unsuitable attire. The protests, witnesses recount, have touched on all aspects of rights in Iran, civil, political, personal, social and economic.

Mada Masr spoke to a protester who was in the prime of her youth during the 2009 Green Movement protests. Speaking on condition of anonymity due to possible security retaliation, she walked us through what she has seen over the past week in the heart of Tehran, and how she sees the legacy of resistance street politics in Iran across history.

MADA MASR: Describe to us what you are seeing these days on the streets of Tehran.

ANONYMOUS PROTESTER: People like me, we are emotional because we remember 2009. The location of the protests is the same: Keshavarz Boulevard in the middle of Tehran. The last time Tehranis took to these streets was in 2009, one of the last protests of the Green Movement. Since then, the center of Tehran hasn’t seen any mass protests, and most of these streets have changed, with new urban planning meant to make them more controllable.

Remembering 2009 triggers many things, such as street strategies, tactics and the way we could find each other in the middle of the chaos. But this is us now, almost at the back. Up front, there are many younger people, especially girls . They are extremely brave, fearless and smart.

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THE CONVERSATION
Kevork Oskanian

How Russia's Setbacks In Ukraine Could Reignite Armenia-Azerbaijan Conflict

Azerbaijan’s recent shelling of Armenia is the worst hostilities since the war in 2020 over the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute. While in the past, Russia, a historic ally of Armenia, sought to restore peace, the Kremlin may make a different calculus this time.

-Analysis-

Almost two years ago, what is now referred to as the “ Second Karabakh War ” broke the uneasy truce which had been in effect between Armenia and Azerbaijan since 1994. After 44 days of intense fighting – with thousands of dead on both sides – it ended in a precarious, Russian-mediated ceasefire on November 10, 2020.

The nine-point document setting out the terms of the ceasefire in the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region of the South Caucasus largely cemented the gains made by Azerbaijan during the war. Among others, it provided for a withdrawal of Armenia’s troops from Azerbaijan and the restoration of economic and transportation links between the two countries.

This is particularly important for Azerbaijan, whose access to its Nakhchivan exclave is separated by Armenia’s Syunik province. The agreement also included arrangements for the stationing of Russian peacekeepers in Nagorno-Karabakh until at least 2025.

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In The News
Anne-Sophie Goninet, Lisa Berdet, Chloé Touchard and Lila Paulou

Armenia-Azerbaijan Reignites, Greenpeace Nuke Protest, Godard Dies

👋 Ushé-ushé!*

Welcome to Tuesday, where Ukraine continues to reconquer territory, fresh clashes on the Armenia-Azerbaijan border leave at least 49 dead and France says adieu to two 20th-century titans of the visual arts. Meanwhile, business daily Les Echos draws a profile of Vladimir Potanin, one of Russia's top 10 billionaires who continues to grow his business despite Western sanctions.

[*Kanuri, Nigeria, Niger, Chad and Cameroon]

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In The News
Cameron Manley, Bertrand Hauger, Jeff Israely and Emma Albright

Putin’s Troops Make Hasty Retreat Back Into Russia

Ukraine’s State Border Guard Service posted a video Tuesday morning with the caption "Vovchansk is back home.” In the video, Ukrainian troops can be seen removing Russian flags and signs from buildings in the city in the northeast Kharkiv region. Vovchansk was occupied on the first day of the invasion and reports began to come in Sunday that it had been vacated by Russian troops.

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The city is one of more than 20 settlements of the country liberated over the past 24 hours. In his Monday evening address , President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky said that Ukrainian military had liberated more than 6,000 square kilometers of the country's territory in the east and south.

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