TOPIC: alexander lukashenko

-Analysis-

KYIV — When it comes to his Russian neighbor, Alexander Lukashenko appears to be a walking contradiction: he is a firm supporter of the war in Ukraine, and yet continues to stand by his decision not to send troops.

And yet such an apparent anomaly is nothing new for the Belarus strongman: political scientists had already dubbed his leadership style "adaptive authoritarianism," whereby ruling elites in Minsk use opportunistic and pragmatic strategies to maintain power over time.

This has largely succeeded since Lukashenko came to power in 1994, despite long-term predictions of the president’s imminent demise. Maneuvering between the EU and Russia and putting his eggs in different baskets, Lukashenko has managed not only to run the country like a collective farm, as some observers sometimes dismissively describe it, but also to adapt skillfully to new challenges.

The first sanctions against Belarus were imposed in 1996, in response to a fraudulent referendum that expanded presidential powers. But the EU lifted sanctions by 1999. The president, whose legitimacy was not recognized, released political prisoners, allowing relations between Belarus and Europe to warm.

Over the next decades of Lukashenko's tenure, a similar pattern was repeated many times. Another round of sanctions was imposed as a result of the rigged presidential election in 2010, then eased a few years later as Minsk offered its services in negotiations after the Russian annexation of Crimea.

After 2020, when Belarus was rocked by the largest protests in its history, many political commentators who were tempted to predict a long-awaited change of power were wrong in their assessments of the regime's stability. Lukashenko's ability to adapt was hugely underestimated.

Still, no dictatorship lasts forever.