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TOPIC: alexander lukashenko

FOCUS: Russia-Ukraine War

Is Lukashenko Sick? Putin Too? Why Ukraine Won't Be Waiting For Dictators To Die

A spate of speculation on the health of Belarus strongman Alexander Lukashenko follows similar reports about would-be Vladimir Putin illnesses. Such talk feeds the hope of the Russian opposition and many in the West. Ukrainians have a different agenda — and timetable.

-Analysis-

Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko was not enjoying the parade.

Appearing in Moscow’s Red Square for the May 9 Victory Day celebration, the 68-year-old strongman looked quite ill, and wore a bandage on his arm.

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He missed the Kremlin breakfast and didn't take the walk with Vladimir Putin and other heads of state across the Square to the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier, reaching it by electric car instead, reports independent Russian news outlet Agents.Media reports reports.

When he then missed the Belarus celebration of the Day of the State Flag, Emblem and Anthem, rumors started to circulate that Lukashenko might have a serious health problem.

And for nearly a week, he vanished.

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Nuclear Card And Firing Squads: Lukashenko's Long Game To Retain Power

A few weeks after an explosion at a military field in Belarus, Vladimir Putin announced plans to deploy tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus. There is a connection, even if Belarus leader Alexander Lukashenko is walking a tight rope of domestic control and keeping Putin satisfied.

-Analysis-

Back on the afternoon of February 26, local Belarus media reported explosions at the military airfield in Machulishchy, near Minsk, and increased activity of military services. Soon after, the BYPOL association, created by former security forces to fight the regime of Alexander Lukashenko,, announced that Belarusian partisans had used drones to attack a Russian A-50U long-range radar detection aircraft.

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Neither Minsk nor Moscow acknowledged that such a valuable aircraft had been disabled. However, a few days later, the A-50U left the territory of Belarus for repairs.

The day after the explosions, Lukashenko convened a meeting of the security forces. He looked agitated, demanding "the strictest discipline" and spoke vaguely about some "internal events" and attempts to "stir up" the situation in Belarus. The Belarusian authorities publicly acknowledged the sabotage only on March 7.

That same day, Lukashenko accused the Ukrainian special services of organizing the terrorist attack in Machulishchy. "Well, the challenge has been met," he declared, before quickly clarifying that he did not intend to use the incident to draw Belarus into war. "If you think that throwing this challenge will drag us into a war that is already going on all over Europe, you are mistaken."

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Alliance Or Annexation: What Are Putin's Ultimate Plans For Belarus?

Putin has stated in the past that Ukraine and Belarus should be a part of the Russian Federation. But his plans in Belarus have been postponed by war on the other neighbor, and the shrinking room for maneuver of Minsk's strongman Alexander Lukashenko

-Analysis-

MINSK — A document was recently leaked to the press that was reportedly commissioned two years ago by the Russian presidential administration: "Strategic Goals of the Russian Federation on the Belarusian Direction."

This plan provides for the complete subordination of Belarus's political, economic, and cultural life by 2030. Belarusian laws are to be brought in line with Russian regulations, the Russian language is to dominate over the Belarusian language, and the influence of "pro-Western nationalist forces" is to be limited.

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A separate section is devoted to "passportization" — that is, the issuing Russian identity documents to Belarusians under a simplified procedure. At the final stage, the plan envisages forming a common legal system, introducing a single currency, total control over the information field, completely unifying the customs and tax space, and creating a common command system of the armed forces.

Interestingly, Belarus strongman Alexander Lukashenko did not deny the reality of the document, adding that he didn't see anything outrageous in the Kremlin's plans.

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Why All Sides Are Calling For Peace Talks In Ukraine, And Nobody Means It

Russia says it's willing to negotiate for peace in Ukraine, but won't make any territorial concessions; meanwhile, China presents a half-baked peace plan. It's a masterclass in talking out of both sides of your mouth.

-Analysis-

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said this week that Russia was in favor of negotiation to end the war in Ukraine. But in the same breath, he added that there would be "no compromise" on what he described as "new territorial realities" — that is, the Russian annexation of parts of Ukraine.

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A perfect example of how to say you are ready to negotiate, while also saying you are not.

This trickery neatly sums up the situation. At this stage, no one is truly prepared to negotiate, but at the same time, they must act as if they are, to avoid looking like the one standing in the way of peace. This applies to Russia, which is still trying to use force to take over the entire Donbas region — only some of which remains under its control.

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FOCUS: Russia-Ukraine War
Serhii Baglai

The Lukashenko Method: How Long Can Belarus Keep Teasing The Russian Bear?

The regime in Belarus bet on a rapid Russian victory in Ukraine. But after a year of war, the armed forces of Belarus still haven't been ordered to attack. Why? Ukrainian publication Livy Bereg looks at Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko's cunning game — and how much longer it can go on.

-Analysis-

KYIV — When it comes to his Russian neighbor, Alexander Lukashenko appears to be a walking contradiction: he is a firm supporter of the war in Ukraine, and yet continues to stand by his decision not to send troops.

And yet such an apparent anomaly is nothing new for the Belarus strongman: political scientists had already dubbed his leadership style "adaptive authoritarianism," whereby ruling elites in Minsk use opportunistic and pragmatic strategies to maintain power over time.

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This has largely succeeded since Lukashenko came to power in 1994, despite long-term predictions of the president’s imminent demise. Maneuvering between the EU and Russia and putting his eggs in different baskets, Lukashenko has managed not only to run the country like a collective farm, as some observers sometimes dismissively describe it, but also to adapt skillfully to new challenges.

The first sanctions against Belarus were imposed in 1996, in response to a fraudulent referendum that expanded presidential powers. But the EU lifted sanctions by 1999. The president, whose legitimacy was not recognized, released political prisoners, allowing relations between Belarus and Europe to warm.

Over the next decades of Lukashenko's tenure, a similar pattern was repeated many times. Another round of sanctions was imposed as a result of the rigged presidential election in 2010, then eased a few years later as Minsk offered its services in negotiations after the Russian annexation of Crimea.

After 2020, when Belarus was rocked by the largest protests in its history, many political commentators who were tempted to predict a long-awaited change of power were wrong in their assessments of the regime's stability. Lukashenko's ability to adapt was hugely underestimated.

Still, no dictatorship lasts forever.

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Russia
Anna Akage

The Next Big Move? What Would Happen If Belarus Enters War Against Ukraine

As the war in Donbas is bogged down, the most likely major new gambit in Vladimir Putin’s ambitions in Ukraine would be to get military support from his ally in Minsk, Belarusian strongman Alexander Lukashenko. How would that actually go down?

This article was updated Oct. 12 at 1:00 p.m EST

What will Lukashenko do? It’s a high-stakes corollary to the even higher stakes "what-will-Putin-do" question that has been weighing on the world since the beginning of the year.

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Few doubt that the role of Belarus and its leader Alexander Lukashenko — the 68-year-old strongman who's ruled Belarus since 1994 — is absolutely crucial to the outcome of the war in Ukraine. Will he invade? Will he bide his time? Will he do whatever Putin tells him to do?

Lukashenko's announcement Monday that he would deploy his troops alongside Russian forces near Ukraine shows that it is indeed increasingly likely that Belarus will enter the war.

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In The News
Lorraine Olaya, Lila Paulou, Lisa Berdet and Emma Albright

Mariupol Hangs In Balance, Biden Accuses Putin Of Genocide

👋 Manahuu!*

Welcome to Wednesday, as conflicting reports circulating over the fate of Mariupol, Biden accuses Putin of genocide, while the Russian president says peace talks with Ukraine are at a “dead end.” We also zoom in on Donbas, where Putin has shifted his forces in what could be a key moment in the Russia-Ukraine war. Meanwhile, an ugly Hollywood trial has begun in Virginia.

[*Mah-nah-hoo - Northern Paiute]

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Geopolitics
Taras Kuzio

Yanukovych And A New "Little Russia": Putin's Final Plan For Ukraine

Putin says he wants to "denazify" Ukraine, but his true goal is bringing the country back into Russia's sphere of influence as part of an all-Russian nation. To achieve that, he will try to turn it into a second Belarus, with a puppet ruler who has a familiar face.

-Analysis-

KYIV — An article recently appeared on Ria Novosti, Russia’s main state online news agency with the headline: "Russia is restoring its historical fullness, bringing together the Russian land and the All-Russian nation — Great Russians, Belarusians and Little Russians." The article said stopping the “disintegration of Russian lands” should be the first step towards restoring the effective rule of the USSR.

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Even now, three decades later, its collapse remains a tragedy for Vladimir Putin. He believes that "Little Russia"— that is, Ukraine — must be led by a Russian puppet like the self-proclaimed president of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko.

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Belarus
Thomas d'Istria

In Belarus, Purpose And Method In Hunting Down Demonstrators

Alexander Lukashenko's regime is sending more and more protesters to prison to try to prevent a new mass mobilization.

MINSK — The welcoming committee waiting for Angelina Serzhan when she was released from prison on Feb. 14 was limited to her parents, who were happy ... and worried. The hour of Serzhan's release had been postponed at the last moment. An argument soon broke out between the reunited family. "My father told me that I was responsible because I had worn politically incorrect socks," says the 20-year-old. She had taken part in the demonstrations demanding the resignation of President Alexander Lukashenko, who was re-elected on Aug. 9, 2020. She had expected to be arrested one day by the special riot police (OMON), but certainly not because of her socks.

On Jan. 30, police officers put her in a van while she was crossing a park in the capital. The reason? Serzhan, who studies fine arts in Minsk, was wearing white and red socks, the colors of the former flag of the Belarusian People's Republic. This flag became the symbol of the protest movement. At the verdict of her trial, on Skype, she was sentenced to 15 days of detention for "participation in a mass event not authorized by the authorities."

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Belarus
Christophe Ayad

Svetlana Tikhanovskaya Interview: Fear Has Changed Sides

Forced into exile in Lithuania after the contested Aug. 9 Belarusian presidential election, Tikhanovskaya is not giving up the struggle to push strongman Alexander Lukashenko from power.

VILNIUS — After 10 days of silence, officially due to a quarantine, Svetlana Tikhanovskaya is making up for lost time. Spontaneous and initially shy, the 37 year-old surprise candidate for the Belarusian presidential election is becoming more and more assertive, revealing an iron will. Currently a refugee from her homeland, in Vilnius, Lithuania, and living with her two children, Tikhanovskaya has suddenly found herself as the top opponent of the regime of President Alexander Lukashenko. She met recently with U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Stephen Biegun, who said he was "impressed."

In an Aug 25 interview with Le Monde, Tikhanovskaya said she continues to rely on peaceful demonstrations and strikes to bring down the man described as "the last dictator in Europe."

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Belarus
Galine Dudina and Mikhail Korostikov

Europe Set To Bring Belarus In From The Cold

MINSK — Belarus's President Alexander Lukashenko has been dubbed "Europe's Last Dictator," and ties between Brussels and Minsk have been virtually frozen since a new series of sanctions were imposed in 2010.

But now, it appears, Lukashenko and his country will be welcomed back into the continent's fold as the European Union is set to lift sanctions, sources tell Kommersant. The measures had been imposed against Belarus in several stages from 2006 to 2010, with the toughest measures following a crackdown on mass protests after presidential elections in 2010.

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Russia
Mirosław Czech

Belarus: Even Allies Start To Fear Moscow's Ambitions

Though Belarus is part of a Customs Union with Russia and Kazakhstan, it is cooling toward Moscow. As Minsk hosts Russia-Ukraine talks, much is at stake in the old Soviet orbit.

MINSK — Amid growing tension between the Ukrainian military and pro-Russian separatists, presidents Petro Poroshenko and Vladimir Putin are meeting for a summit today in Minsk, Belarus, where top leaders from the European Union, the host country and Kazakhstan will mediate the talks.

As Poland's influence has waned since the beginning of the Ukrainian conflict, new regional players have stepped up on the political scene. Belarus and Kazakhstan, both in the Eurasian Customs Union with Russia, intend to weigh in on efforts to de-escalate the conflict in Eastern Europe.

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