Geopolitics

Tackling The Next Crisis In Syria: Winter

Local organizations have been working day and night over the past two months to prepare Syrians for the winter cold. Nearly a dozen people died there last January due to a fatal combination of inadequate shelter and freezing weather.

At a UNHCR refugee camp in Homs, Syria
At a UNHCR refugee camp in Homs, Syria
Tamer Osman

ALEPPO â€" As harsh winter weather descends on Syria, local aid organizations and councils are working around the clock to ensure that the country's poor and displaced will survive the cold temperatures.

More than 80 local relief organizations, local councils and civil defense groups have been working under the banner "Before the Disaster Strikes" to prevent a repeat of the cold-weather fatalities that occurred last year. The situation is further complicated, they say, by unaffordable fuel prices and mass power outages.

"We are hoping to preemptively gear up for the risks of a harsh winter and avoid the unnecessary deaths, lack of food and blocked roads that we witnessed in previous years," says Dr. Muawiya Harsouni, the campaign's general manager.

There are an estimated 6.5 million internally displaced people in Syria, according to the latest figures from the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR). Many have been displaced several times and lack any sort of proper housing to protect themselves from the cold. "An estimated 2. 4 million people lack adequate shelter," says Ariane Rummery, a spokeswoman for the UNHCR.

Winter in Syria can be harsh, especially in remote, hard-to-reach areas. Last year’s winter temperatures dropped to 8.6 °F (-13 °C) in some parts of the country. And when cold weather and inadequate shelters are coupled with electricity and fuel shortages, things only get worse.

"Syrians are facing their fifth winter in a state of conflict," says Rummery. "Since the onset of hostilities, the average life expectancy has fallen by 20 years. Four out of five Syrians live in poverty and winter will be particularly harsh for them, as it will be for those who lack adequate shelter."

Burning plastic and old clothes

Last year, unexpected heavy rains, snow and cold temperatures hit refugee camps across Syria and in neighboring countries, claiming the lives of 11 people in northern Syria, including a two-day-old infant and an elderly man in the city of Aleppo. Three other children died in the Halima refugee camp in Arsal, Lebanon, when tents collapsed due to heavy snow and rain.

Abdulrazzaq, a 39-year-old man from Aleppo, lives with his family of five in the Bab al-Salaam refugee camp, located along the Syrian-Turkish border. He describes the camp as primitive at best. Electricity is almost non-existent, and water is only delivered sporadically. The only source of heat they have is from a barrel in which they burn pieces of plastic and old clothes to keep warm.

"I came here with my family when the bombing on Aleppo intensified during the month of Ramadan in 2012. I could not afford to go anywhere else. Our suffering repeats itself every winter," he says. "The tents are cheap and primitive. They soak up water when it rains, and they collapse when it snows. I burn whatever I can find in a barrel in order to keep us warm, but the smell is unbearable. They keep telling us that things will be better soon, but nothing has changed."

Local organizations working to prevent the kind of cold-weather deaths that happened last year are well aware of the dangers associated with winter. "What happened in previous winters was deeply disturbing," says Wael Halabi, a public relations officer with the Aleppo-based Abrar Association for Relief and Development, one of the partner organizations working with Before the Disaster Strikes. "We've taken many preemptive measures this year."

"We launched our "Even a Dollar Can Help" donation campaign two months ago, and have used the money to purchase diesel fuel, which we have distributed to poor families throughout Aleppo," says Halabi. His organization hopes to provide 1,000 families with 100 liters of diesel each.

The situation in neighborhoods controlled by the opposition forces in the city of Aleppo isn't much better than in the informal camps along the border. Since the armed conflict began, people in these areas have been living in deplorable conditions. Keeping warm during winter is a challenge because of the high cost of fuel and the lack of electricity, which lasts for less than four hours per day, if it comes at all.

Abu Salih, 64, lives with his wife in al-Jazmati, an opposition-controlled neighborhood in Aleppo. He says that nearly everyone from the area has left because of the near-constant violence. During the day, he wanders empty streets in search of scraps to burn to keep his family warm.

"I'm an old man. I can't work or afford diesel or wood to keep us warm. I usually burn old furniture or old clothes," he says. "Winter here is very harsh. Last year, I received wood and a wood burner from an aid organization. But we haven't received anything yet this winter. We hope that our voice will reach those in charge."

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Future

7 Ways The Pandemic May Change The Airline Industry For Good

Will flying be greener? More comfortable? Less frequent? As the world eyes a post-COVID reality, we look at ways the airline industry has been changing through a pandemic that has devastated air travel.

Ready for (a different kind of) takeoff?

Carl-Johan Karlsson

It's hard to overstate the damage the pandemic has had on the airline industry, with global revenues dropping by 40% in 2020 and dozens of airlines around the world filing for bankruptcy. One moment last year when the gravity became particularly apparent was when Asian carriers (in countries with low COVID-19 rates) began offering "flights to nowhere" — starting and ending at the same airport as a way to earn some cash from would-be travelers who missed the in-flight experience.

More than a year later today, experts believe that air traffic won't return to normal levels until 2024.


But beyond the financial woes, the unprecedented slowdown in air travel may bring some silver linings as key aspects of the industry are bound to change once back in full spin, with some longer-term effects on aviation already emerging. Here are some major transformations to expect in the coming years:

Cleaner aviation fuel

The U.S. administration of President Joe Biden and the airline industry recently agreed to the ambitious goal of replacing all jet fuel with sustainable alternatives by 2050. Already in a decade, the U.S. aims to produce three billion gallons of sustainable fuel — about one-tenth of current total use — from waste, plants and other organic matter.

While greening the world's road transport has long been at the top of the climate agenda, aviation is not even included under the Paris Agreement. But with air travel responsible for roughly 12% of all CO2 emissions from transport, and stricter international regulation on the horizon, the industry is increasingly seeking sustainable alternatives to petroleum-based fuel.

Fees imposed on the airline industry should be funneled into a climate fund.

In Germany, state broadcaster Deutsche Welle reports that the world's first factory producing CO2-neutral kerosene recently started operations in the town of Wertle, in Lower Saxony. The plant, for which Lufthansa is set to become the pilot customer, will produce CO2-neutral kerosene through a circular production cycle incorporating sustainable and green energy sources and raw materials. Energy is supplied through wind turbines from the surrounding area, while the fuel's main ingredients are water and waste-generated CO2 coming from a nearby biogas plant.

Farther north, Norwegian Air Shuttle has recently submitted a recommendation to the government that fees imposed on the airline industry should be funneled into a climate fund aimed at developing cleaner aviation fuel, according to Norwegian news site E24. The airline also suggested that the government significantly reduce the tax burden on the industry over a longer period to allow airlines to recover from the pandemic.

Black-and-white photo of an ariplane shot from below flying across the sky and leaving condensation trails

High-flying ambitions for the sector

Joel & Jasmin Førestbird

Hydrogen and electrification

Some airline manufacturers are betting on hydrogen, with research suggesting that the abundant resource has the potential to match the flight distances and payload of a current fossil-fuel aircraft. If derived from renewable resources like sun and wind power, hydrogen — with an energy-density almost three times that of gasoline or diesel — could work as a fully sustainable aviation fuel that emits only water.

One example comes out of California, where fuel-cell specialist HyPoint has entered a partnership with Pennsylvania-based Piasecki Aircraft Corporation to manufacture 650-kilowatt hydrogen fuel cell systems for aircrafts. According to HyPoint, the system — scheduled for commercial availability product by 2025 — will have four times the energy density of existing lithium-ion batteries and double the specific power of existing hydrogen fuel-cell systems.

Meanwhile, Rolls-Royce is looking to smash the speed record of electrical flights with a newly designed 23-foot-long model. Christened the Spirit of Innovation, the small plane took off for the first time earlier this month and successfully managed a 15-minute long test flight. However, the company has announced plans to fly the machine faster than 300 mph (480 km/h) before the year is out, and also to sell similar propulsion systems to companies developing electrical air taxis or small commuter planes.

New aircraft designs

Airlines are also upgrading aircraft design to become more eco-friendly. Air France just received its first upgrade of a single-aisle, medium-haul aircraft in 33 years. Fleet director Nicolas Bertrand told French daily Les Echos that the new A220 — that will replace the old A320 model — will reduce operating costs by 10%, fuel consumption and CO2 emissions by 20% and noise footprint by 34%.

International first class will be very nearly a thing of the past.

The pandemic has also ushered in a new era of consumer demand where privacy and personal space is put above luxury. The retirement of older aircraft caused by COVID-19 means that international first class — already in steady decline over the last decades — will be very nearly a thing of the past. Instead, airplane manufacturers around the world (including Delta, China Eastern, JetBlue, British Airways and Shanghai Airlines) are betting on a new generation of super-business minisuites where passengers have a privacy door. The idea, which was introduced by Qatar Airways in 2017, is to offer more personal space than in regular business class but without the lavishness of first class.

Aerial view of Rome's Fiumicino airport

Aerial view of Rome's Fiumicino airport

commons.wikimedia.org

Hygiene rankings  

Rome's Fiumicino Airport has become the first in the world to earn "the COVID-19 5-Star Airport Rating" from Skytrax, an international airline and airport review and ranking site, Italian daily La Repubblica reports. Skytrax, which publishes a yearly annual ranking of the world's best airports and issues the World Airport Awards, this year created a second list to specifically call out airports with the best health and hygiene standards.

Smoother check-in

​The pandemic has also accelerated the shift towards contactless traveling, with more airports harnessing the power of biometrics — such as facial recognition or fever screening — to reduce touchpoints and human contact. Similar technology can also be used to more efficiently scan physical objects, such as explosive detection. Ultimately, passengers will be able to "check-in" and go through a security screening anywhere at the airports, removing queues and bottlenecks.

Data privacy issues

​However, as pointed out in Canadian publication The Lawyer's Daily, increased use of AI and biometrics also means increased privacy concerns. For example, health and hygiene measures like digital vaccine passports also mean that airports can collect data on who has been vaccinated and the type of vaccine used.

Photo of planes at Auckland airport, New Zealand

Auckland Airport, New Zealand

Douglas Bagg

The billion-dollar question: Will we fly less?

At the end of the day, even with all these (mostly positive) changes that we've seen take shape over the past 18 months, the industry faces major uncertainty about whether air travel will ever return to the pre-COVID levels. Not only are people wary about being in crowded and closed airplanes, but the worth of long-distance business travel in particular is being questioned as many have seen that meetings can function remotely, via Zoom and other online apps.

Trying to forecast the future, experts point to the years following the 9/11 terrorist attacks as at least a partial blueprint for what a recovery might look like in the years ahead. Twenty years ago, as passenger enthusiasm for flying waned amid security fears following the attacks, airlines were forced to cancel flights and put planes into storage.

40% of Swedes intend to travel less

According to McKinsey, leisure trips and visits to family and friends rebounded faster than business flights, which took four years to return to pre-crisis levels in the UK. This time too, business travel is expected to lag, with the consulting firm estimating only 80% recovery of pre-pandemic levels by 2024.

But the COVID-19 crisis also came at a time when passengers were already rethinking their travel habits due to climate concerns, while worldwide lockdowns have ushered in a new era of remote working. In Sweden, a survey by the country's largest research company shows that 40% of the population intend to travel less even after the pandemic ends. Similarly in the UK, nearly 60% of adults said during the spring they intended to fly less after being vaccinated against COVID-19 — with climate change cited as a top reason for people wanting to reduce their number of flights, according to research by the University of Bristol.

At the same time, major companies are increasingly forced to face the music of the environmental movement, with several corporations rolling out climate targets over the last few years. Today, five of the 10 biggest buyers of corporate air travel in the US are technology companies: Amazon, IBM, Google, Apple and Microsoft, according to Taipei Times, all of which have set individual targets for environmental stewardship. As such, the era of flying across the Atlantic for a two-hour executive meeting is likely in its dying days.

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