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NOVAYA GAZETA
This Moscow-based newspaper is known for its unsparing coverage of Russian political and economic powers and its investigative reports. Six Novaya Gazeta journalists, including Yury Shchekochikhin, Anna Politkovskaya and Anastasia Baburova, have been murdered since 2001, in connection with their investigations.
After Belgorod: Does The Russian Opposition Have A Path To Push Out Putin?
FOCUS: Russia-Ukraine War
Anna Akage

After Belgorod: Does The Russian Opposition Have A Path To Push Out Putin?

The month of May has seen a brazen drone attack on the Kremlin and a major incursion by Russian rebels across the border war into the Russian region of Belgorod. Could this lead to Russians pushing Vladimir Putin out of power? Or all-out civil war?

-Analysis-

We may soon mark May 22 as the day the Ukrainian war added a Russian front to the military battle maps. Two far-right Russian units fighting on the side of Ukraine entered the Belgorod region of the Russian Federation, riding on tanks and quickly crossing the border to seize Russian military equipment and take over checkpoints.

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This was not the first raid, but it was by far the longest and most successful, before the units were eventually forced to pass back into Ukrainian territory. The Russian Defense Ministry’s delay in reacting and repelling the incursion demonstrated its inability to seal the border and protect its citizens.

The broader Russian opposition — both inside the country and in exile — are actively discussing the Belgorod events and trying to gauge how it will affect the situation in the country. Will such raids become a regular occurrence? Will they grow more ambitious, lasting longer and striking deeper inside Russian territory? Or are these the first flare-ups at the outset of a coming civil war? And, of course, what fate awaits Vladimir Putin?

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Screenshot of a soldier in a supermarket, excerpted from the Russian Army's new recruitment ad​
FOCUS: Russia-Ukraine War
Cameron Manley

"Be A Real Man": Russia's Testosterone-Fueled Ad Campaign For New Army Recruits

Suffering heavy losses, the Russian army is undertaking an intensive recruitment drive. We take a look at the heavy-handed adverts and offers that encourage men to go to war.

MOSCOW — It's spring 2023, and a whole new process of mass mobilization has begun across Russia, but the Kremlin wont' call it that. Instead, since the beginning of March, the country has launched a media advertising blitz to use all powers of persuasion to get men to sign up for the military to join the war in Ukraine.

Russian independent news site Novaya Gazeta Europe reports that at least 53,000 advertisements, in both video and poster form, have been shared on VKontakte, a Russian social media platform. The ads have appeared on a wide range of public pages, from those of regional governors, job centers and local media channels, to hospitals, libraries and even kindergartens.

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The figure represents a seven-fold increase compared to Russia’s largely unsuccessful recruitment campaign for volunteer soldiers last summer. It follows reports from British military intelligence and Russian media that suggest Moscow is seeking to recruit up to 400,000 professional soldiers — on a volunteer basis — to bolster its forces in Ukraine.

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Russia Aims Again At Kharkiv, 15 Civilians Killed
In The News
Anna Akage, Shaun Lavelle, Lisa Berdet and Emma Albright

Russia Aims Again At Kharkiv, 15 Civilians Killed

Attacks in Ukraine's second biggest city are reminiscent of strategy in Mariupol.

At least 15 confirmed civilian deaths were reported by this morning in Kharkiv, after the Russian army fired multiple Uragan rockets at an industrial area of the northeastern city where there were no military facilities, according to Serhiy Bolvinov, head of the Investigative Department of the Kharkiv Region Police Department.

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"Russian forces are now hitting the city of Kharkiv in the same way that they previously were hitting Mariupol, intending to terrorize the population," Ukrainian presidential adviser Oleksiy Arestovych said in a video address.

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Key EU Summit Amid Doubts About Western Unity
In The News
Anna Akage, Meike Eisberg, Shaun Lavelle, Bertrand Hauger and Emma Albright

Key EU Summit Amid Doubts About Western Unity

European leaders meeting Monday and Tuesday are seeking a new package of sanctions against Russia, which could may (or may not) include an oil embargo. It comes as German Economy Minister Robert Habek said EU unity "is beginning to crumble."

A crucial two-day summit of European Union leaders is underway to forge a new response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, as doubts spread that Western unity is about to come undone.

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EU leaders meet Monday and Tuesday to discuss a new package of sanctions against Russia, which could also include an oil embargo and a program aimed at speeding up the cessation of dependence on fossil fuels, including Russian gas.

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two guards in red square
Geopolitics
Cameron Manley

Regime Change Inside Russia? What It Would Take To Push Putin Out

A perfect storm must come together of deepening troubles on the battlefield in Ukraine, Kremlin insiders turning on Putin, popular opposition and (not least of all) ideas for what comes after. More and more signs of all these factors are starting to show up.

-Analysis-

White House officials were quick to clarify that Joe Biden’s words were not, in fact, exactly what they sounded like. “For God’s sake,” the U.S. President said of Russia's Vladimir Putin, "this man cannot remain in power." No, the apparently ad-libbed line in a momentous speech in Warsaw on Saturday was not a call for regime change, but rather a message that Putin “cannot be allowed to exercise power over his neighbors or the region.”

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Of course, most of those neighbors in the region, along with much of the international community would like to see someone else take power in Moscow — starting with Ukrainians who are suffering one month into Putin’s unprovoked invasion.

Yet, experts agree, it is only Russians who would have the power to remove the strongman from power.

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The Edge Of Totalitarianism, Why Putin Went Easy On Marina Ovsyannikova
Ideas
Anna Akage

The Edge Of Totalitarianism, Why Putin Went Easy On Marina Ovsyannikova

When Russian journalist Marina Ovsyannikova interrupted Monday’s nightly news with an anti-war protest, most figured her stunning act of political courage would be brutally punished. But she’s received just a small fine and continues to move and speak freely in Moscow. Paradoxically, it may actually be the final tack in Vladimir Putin’s brutal, unpredictable propaganda machine.

-Analysis-

It was a lone act of extreme political courage that brought the world back to the 1989 images of “Tank Man” of Tiananmen Square.

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On the night of March 15, Marina Ovsyannikova, a veteran journalist on Russia's leading state TV newscast, burst into the studio holding up a sign that read "No war ... you are being lied to here."

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Backlit photo of a woman wearing a COVID mask passing by a PRADA shop window at the GUM luxury department store in Moscow​
Economy
Cameron Manley

Elite Exodus: Russians Escaping The War, And Its Consequences

Estimates are that more than 200,000 people have already crossed Russian borders since Vladimir Putin launched the invasion of Ukraine. It looks to be the start of a mass exodus of well-to-do and middle class Russians that could further decimate the economy.

ST. PETERSBURG — Lining up to board the 6:30 a.m. bus from St. Petersburg to Helsinki, all his future packed in a single suitcase, a young Russian explains why he’s chosen to leave his native land, using a brutal movie metaphor: “Someone in this country has put a contract out on my life.”

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The hitman in this plot is, of course, Vladimir Putin: Since the Russian President launched his invasion of Ukraine, a growing number of citizens back home have been grappling with the decision to stay or go.

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Profile of captured Russian soldier
Geopolitics
Cameron Manley

Videos For Mom v. Mobile Crematoriums: How Russia Is Losing The Info War

One week since Putin ordered an invasion of Ukraine, Russia has failed to control the narrative at home and abroad.

MOSCOW — Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war with Ukraine is being fought on multiple fronts. On the ground, Russian troops are descending upon Kyiv from the north, east and south, aiming to encircle the capital and other cities with a massive military assault.

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But there is another front that is no less important — not of territory, but a battle of conviction, truth and will: the war of information.

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