Our world is “flat” no more: Welcome to the era of pure geopolitics
The dominance of a single narrative of globalization and liberal democracy is over, writes Luis Rubio in business magazine America Economia.
As the Bolshevik leader Lenin once observed, there are decades when nothing happens and weeks in which decades take place. The big turns in history tend to go unnoticed in their decisive moments because daily life doesn't suddenly change for most people around the world.
Yet in retrospect, certain moments become crucial. Everything suggests the invasion of Ukraine is one of those turning points, with enormous implications for the world's future.
There have been other dramatic turning points in recent history, like the end of World War II, the fall of the Soviet Union and creation of the European Union, or China's estrangement from the West, especially after the 2008 financial crisis.
While certain elements of the "new" future were taking shape before the invasion of Ukraine — like the militarized artificial islands China has been building in the South China Sea — the direct clash of Russia and the Western block has ushered in a new phase. It is certainly the end of the notion of "holidays" from history put forward by the writer George Will. It means the end of the idea that we could all escape the logic of big-power interests and collectively play under the same rules. Geopolitics are back.
This was an outcome that has been long in the making. After the end of the Cold War, economic decisions became the priority. All nations devoted themselves to winning investments to fuel their economic growth and development. The writer Francis Fukuyama famously wrote of The End of History, which firms and governments eagerly adopted as a mantra. Capitalism had won and the world was now "flat," said the journalist Thomas Friedman.
Apparently it made no difference anymore whether you invested in Germany or in Zambia. While more cautious observers like the historian Samuel Huntington insisted on enduring cultural and political differences, the dominant idea was of the world as a market.
The rise of a series of strongman rulers in the last decade was a sign of change. Regardless of their attributes or defects, their emergence reflected new socio-political realities in countries as diverse as Brazil, the United States, Turkey, China or Mexico.
When Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, says economic decisions must be subordinate to political decision-making, the message is clear: to hell with the Davos model. For citizens and business people, this means a government much less concerned with development and more with subordination, power and control.
These circumstances show a clear trend, identified by Huntington, which may very well become a new geopolitical reality with the Ukrainian war. The U.S. government has always tended to take decisions that overlook its commercial commitments: its size and nature lead it to suppose that the rest of the world will simply adapt.
A recent example was subsidies for electric cars, which will remove incentives to set up plants in Mexico (and Canada), showing how economic rationalism has become subordinate to political factors. For Mexico, this is a sign of developments ahead.
The return of zones of influence will not be a repeat of what existed in the Cold War, but will change the way nations interact. The information economy and AI era are changing the nature of political and economic activity, while certain rising powers, like India, will be able to limit the weight and impact of the two or three main zones of influence likely to emerge (the U.S., Russia and China).
In historical terms, zones of influence meant the preeminence of powers able to exert a measure of control and restrictions on surrounding nations. In the digital era and with the prevalence of real power factors like Sino-American rivalry in various fields, the new setup will very likely prove more tense, unpredictable and conflict-prone than the simpler, bipolar Cold War.
Separately, a nation's greatest defense in this new reality is obvious: it must fortify its development, which is only possible with a clearly focused government and a society free of major tensions. Without these, we can expect a complicated future.
— Luis Rubio / America Economia
• Ukraine’s EU candidate status, Severodonetsk set to fall: EU leaders granted Ukraine and Moldova official candidate status to join the bloc, a major diplomatic victory for Kyiv that also sends a clear message of European unity to Russia four months after invading Ukraine. Meanwhile, Severodonetsk appears set to fall under full control of Russian forces, after the governor of the Luhansk region said Ukrainian forces will have to withdraw from the strategic city.
• U.S. Senate gun safety bill follows Supreme Court gun rights decision: The U.S. Supreme Court ruled that Americans have the right to carry guns in public, on the same day the Senate approved a bipartisan gun control bill, the first in nearly three decades. This comes at a time when mass shootings are surging across the country.
• Xi Jinping’s potential visit to Hong Kong: Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to Hong Kong is on hold after two top officials have been tested positive to COVID-19. Xi Jinping's visit was expected for the 25th anniversary of the city’s handover next week.
• Afghanistan lacks medical supplies for earthquake survivors: Two days after the magnitude 6.1 earthquake that killed over 1,000 people and injured 2,000, Afghanistan authorities have announced that the health ministry is running short of medical supplies. Pakistan, Japan, South Korea, India, Taiwan and the United Arab Emirates have all replied to the call for assistance.
• UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson under pressure after election defeats: The UK’s Conservative party lost two major seats during parliamentary elections, a new setback for British Prime Minister Boris Johnson who refuses to hand his resignation.
• German transgender athletes can choose their team: The German football federation has passed a regulation allowing gender-noncomforming football players to choose whether they want to play in men’s or women’s teams, starting the coming season. The rule concerns transgender, intersex and non-binary players for youth, futsal and amateur football.
• Largest bacterium ever discovered by scientists: The world’s biggest bacterium has been discovered by scientists in the French Caribbean. Thiomargarita magnifica measures up to 1 centimeter, looks like an eyelash and is visible to the naked eye.
Today’s frontpage of Russian daily Kommersant addresses the technical challenges encountered by BRICS leaders during a visioconference meeting as part of their 14th summit. Russian President Vladimir Putin had to suggest Indian President Narendra Modi to use earphones as he could not hear nor be heard.
142.9 million
Senegalese comedian Khaby Lame has dethroned American teen dancer Charli D'Amelio to become the most-followed person on TikTok with 142.9 million fans — all without uttering a word. After losing his job during the early days of the pandemic in 2020, the 22-year-old who currently lives in Italy started posting videos in which he makes fun of life-hacks videos wordlessly, rapidly gaining success on the platform.
Why the West is finally taking a harder line on Iran
After years of ignoring or downplaying domestic protests in Iran, Western states and media have begun to imagine — and even prepare for — the still slim but growing possibility of a regime change in Tehran, writes Persian-language Kayhan-London.
🇮🇷☢️ In past weeks, European countries and the United States have adopted a harsher tone against Iran, with criticisms going beyond the issue of stalled talks to revive the 2015 multilateral pact on Iran's nuclear program. While the European Union and United States are still reluctant to declare the pact dead, they know the negotiations are at death's door. That is because the Iran has shown it has no intention of ending nuclear activities with the aim of developing a bomb. Many of the regime's think tanks believe possessing nuclear weapons is its guarantee against foreign attempts to bring about regime change.
🗞️ Broadly ignoring the various protests in Iran over the past year, the Biden administration seems to have shifted a little at least in recent weeks through its statements in support of ordinary Iranians. On June 16, the State Department spokesman Ned Price condemned the use of force against peaceful protests. This shift is more evident in Western media, which have finally decided to report on the repression of protests in Iran. The mainstream media line of past years was to view self-declared reformists inside the Iranian regime as the only proper opposition to itself. But no longer.
✊ These changing nuances among Western states and media are a symptom of the Iranian regime's weakness. Every day it is challenged by people who have lost all hope of it meeting their basic needs, and rightly concluded that the only way to clear the nation's horizon is to sweep away a failed polity. Belatedly, the West has seen this utter disenchantment. That said, until it can see a clear alternative to a 40-year-old regime entrenched in power, it is unlikely to take further, or bolder, steps backing Iran's democratization.
➡️ Read more on Worldcrunch.com
“You are a mess, guys.”
— Western Balkan countries’ representatives met with European leaders on Thursday to discuss their adhesion to the bloc. Tensions have been rising amid Bulgaria’s veto of launching talks for North Macedonia’s accession, which is in turn delaying negotiations for Albania. Albanese Prime Minister Edi Rama called out EU leaders for the delay: “You are a mess guys, you are a big mess and you are a disgrace.” European Council President Charles Michel replied that starting negotiations with both Albania and North Macedonia was a “top priority.”
High school graduates from Chernihiv are dancing before the destroyed Hotel Ukraine. Only 11 out of the 28 students stayed in the city, under siege by the Russians earlier during the war. — Photo: Michal Burza/ZUMA
✍️ Newsletter by Lisa Berdet, Lila Paulou and Anne-Sophie Goninet
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