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Ideas

"Collateral Benefit": Could Putin's Launching A Failed War Make The World Better?

Consider the inverse of "collateral damage." Envision Russia's defeat and the triumph of a democratic coalition offers reflection on the most weighty sense of costs and benefits.

Photo of a doll representing Russian President Vladimir Putin

Demonstrators holding a doll with a picture of Russian President Putin

Dominique Moïsi

-Analysis-

PARIS — The concept of collateral damage has developed in the course of so-called "asymmetrical” wars, fought between opponents considered unequal.

The U.S. drone which targeted rebel fighters in Afghanistan, and annihilated an entire family gathered for a wedding, appears to be the perfect example of collateral damage: a doubtful military gain, and a certain political cost. One might also consider the American bombing of Normandy towns around June 6, 1944 as collateral damage.

But is it possible to reverse the expression, and speak of "collateral benefits"? When applied to an armed conflict, the expression may seem shocking.

No one benefits from a war, which leaves in its trace a trail of dead, wounded and displaced people, destroyed cities or children brutally torn from their parents.

And yet the notion of "collateral benefits" is particularly applicable to the war that has been raging in Ukraine for almost a year.


There are the "benefits" that seem obvious and have already been the subject of many commentaries. And there are others, more indirect, but just as important, that deserve a more in-depth analysis.

Ukrainian identity 

Among the obvious benefits, is Putin’s “feat” of getting unified, wealthy democracies to rally behind Ukraine. In trying to neutralize and even annex Ukraine, Putin unintentionally encouraged Sweden and Finland to join NATO while pushing Germany and Japan to reconsider their respective security policies on a fundamental level. And NATO itself has emerged, thanks to Russia, from its “brain-dead” state to gain, through its original mission, a new energy. The war has also allowed Ukrainians, through blood and tears, to crystallize their identity through real, on-the-ground victories, from the north to the south and the east of their country.

But it would certainly be simplistic to explain the current reluctance of Beijing and Belgrade to embark on a military adventure by the sole counter-example of the Russian experience. Can Xi Jinping's China fight on two fronts at once, against COVID-19 at home and against Taiwan, supported by its American ally, abroad? Can Serbia, which is looking more and more towards the European Union in the wake of Croatia's entry into the Eurozone, reconcile its global ambition with nationalist irredentism?

In both cases, the counter-example provided by the Russian experience in Ukraine helps to re-enforce the side of those who think that it is urgent to wait before choosing the path of war. We know how a war starts. We never know when it ends and in what state.

Photo of a protestor wearing a mask that says STOP PUTIN

A woman wears a protective mask that reads ''Stop Putin'' during a demonstration outside the Russian embassy in Warsaw

Attila Husejnow/SOPA/Zuma

Peace benefits 

For the Balkans, the main factor that protects against recourse to war is neither Belgrade’s hope of European integration nor the war in Ukraine, but the looming memories of the Balkan wars.

In order to understand the Balkans in 2023, it is probably appropriate to recall the Spain of the 1970s, the years before and after the death of General Franco. The title of Alain Resnais' 1966 film, The War is Over, foreshadowed the state of mind of the majority of Spaniards.

In the Balkans, the images of Ukraine awaken memories of the Srebrenica massacre for some, and of the NATO bombing of Belgrade for others. The psychoanalyst Boris Cyrulnik, who as a young child experienced the horrors of the World War II, described in a radio interview the profoundly destabilizing impact of the images and sounds of the war in Ukraine on his own psyche. It was as if his past had suddenly resurfaced, disturbing him but also reinforcing his conviction that peace was a precious and rare commodity, to be preserved like a treasure — but not at the cost of betraying its values.

What will happen to Russia if it loses?

Beyond the notions of damage and benefits, there are areas of the world where it is safer to use the national of "collateral uncertainties." Thus it would be tempting to say that China in central Asia, and Turkey in the Caucasus will be the great beneficiaries of Russian military failures in Ukraine.

Could the ultimate collateral benefit of Russia’s war be to clarify the international system?

One could also think that, as Russia has demonstrated the gap between its ambitions and its means, the world will gradually return to a more classic bipolar confrontation between the only two major powers: the United States and China. Could the ultimate collateral benefit of Russia’s unfortunate military advance in Ukraine be to clarify the international system in its new bipolarity?

Such a conclusion predicts, of course, that the Russian defeat "will go well" and will not be accompanied by jolts or perilous escalations. This is not 1917 or 1991. In 1917, the civil war led to the fall of the Tsarist regime and Russia's withdrawal from the First World War. But America's entry into the war on the side of the Allies more than made up for Russian failure.

In 1991, the USSR had only briefly survived the return of Europe, kidnapped into the realm of democracy. What will happen in 2023? It would be very optimistic to think that the main beneficiary of the war in Ukraine will be the Russian people themselves — who could finally freely choose their leaders.


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Geopolitics

U.S. Tech Giants Facing Old Chinese Dilemma In Hong Kong: Live With Censorship Or Leave

American tech companies are still active in Hong Kong, unlike the rest of the Chinese market. But Beijing’s growing attacks on the freedom of expression and information have put them in a quandary.

Pedestrians walking past flags of China and Hong Kong on Nathan Road, in Hong Kong

Walking on Nathan Road, Hong Kong.

Christina zur Nedden

HONG KONG — As the teams lined up before a rugby match between Hong Kong and South Korea in November, a well-known song associated with Hong Kong’s pro-democracy movement rang out around the stadium instead of the Chinese national anthem. Apparently, a young employee at the local organizing body had accidentally clicked on the song "Glory to Hong Kong" when he searched for the Chinese national anthem, "March of the Volunteers."

Hong Kong was a British colony for more than 150 years. In 1997 the United Kingdom handed control back to China, which in turn guaranteed that the special administrative region would have political autonomy for 50 years. But this freedom has been steadily undermined since 2019, and Beijing is increasingly trying to bring Hong Kong under its control through crackdowns and a puppet government.

In 2019, up to 2 million people took to the streets to protest a proposed extradition bill and Beijing’s growing influence in Hong Kong. "Glory to Hong Kong" was often played at these protests.

The organizers of the November rugby match made an official apology to Beijing and Hong Kong, but the Communist Party called for an investigation into the incident. Although China’s influence in Hong Kong is growing, the formerly democratic island enjoys more freedoms than the Chinese mainland. A proposal to ban "Glory to Hong Kong" in the country was initially rejected by Hong Kong’s High Court. But the Communist Party will not let this "disobedience" go unpunished.

That’s not all. According to the Communist Party, the National Security Law passed in 2020, which in principle forbids all criticism of the People’s Republic, does not only apply to Hong Kong but to the entire world. That means even an American company such as Google could be charged under this law for having the wrong song as the top result on its search engine.

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