Flooding of the territory

An obvious problem for the Ukrainian army: flooding along the banks of the Dnipro River, which is now the border between Ukrainian and Russian forces.

Ukraine fully controls the right bank, while Russia partially controls the left bank. This includes the entire coastline from Zaporizhzhia to the Black Sea, as well as land access to Russian-occupied Crimea. The left bank, which is geographically lower, has suffered the worst flooding.

The dam breach will completely change the landscape of the region, broadening the river and making adjacent territories swampy and unsuitable not only for living but also for moving heavy military equipment.

The flooding will end even the remote possibility of a Ukrainian offensive across the Dnipro into the occupied southern regions. But crossing the river wasn't likely part of the Ukrainian plans, notes Mykola Bieleskov, an analyst at the National Institute for Strategic Studies.

"I don't think the military impact will be great, given that the crossing of the Dnipro was hardly planned as a major blow, but rather as something additional to the counteroffensive. Ukraine and Russia can now free up some forces, so the only question is who can move them somewhere faster," he told Bloomberg.

Evacuation and rescue operations

Still, Ukraine has been forced to dedicate time and resources to evacuate people from more than 30 settlements on the right bank of the Dnipro River, rescuing people and pets, as well as working to restore water and electricity to the region, and irrigation of agricultural land. Rescuers are also helping the population of the flooded occupied territories, who have been abandoned by the Russian administration.

The dam attack could also lead to problems with the water supply to Russian-occupied Crimea.

But the attitudes of Ukrainians and Russians toward territory under their control are very different: Russian troops are reportedly saving themselves and retreating to safer positions while continuing to shell flooded areas, while Ukrainian forces are doing rescue operations. So far, Russians are not taking any evacuation measures in the occupied territories.

The war has not been paused because of the tragedy in Dnipro. Ukrainian soldiers, medics, rescuers, volunteers and local administrations already must rescue civilians and restore critical infrastructure in different regions every day because of constant shelling by Russian missiles and drones. Now, in addition to these responsibilities, a new burden falls on them, the scale of which is impossible to comprehend: the resettlement of tens of thousands of people, and the loss of crops and critical infrastructure.

Russian retreat?

The floodwaters are also forcing Russian troops to retreat, and some experts hope that Ukraine may gain advantages on this section of the front in a few weeks. The Russians may even begin to withdraw from the left bank of the Kherson region, suggests Roman Svitan, a military expert and Ukrainian Armed Forces colonel.

Floating landmines

The flooding has also led to the destruction of some fortified Russian positions and minefields Russian forces laid down along the entire coastline during their occupation.

While the water has forced them to retreat deeper into the Kherson region, this is not such positive news: the flooding waters also seem to be unearthing mines and unexploded ordinance and scattering them at random, threatening the military and the local population. Some may end up in the Dnipro estuary and the Black Sea.

Water supply in Crimea

There are few sources of fresh water on the peninsula, and the local population is used to living on the edge of drought and relying on water imports from mainland Ukraine.

But now that the largest reservoir supplying the area has been destroyed and the water level is rapidly falling, this longstanding water supply problem may become critical. Although this is not expected to have a direct impact on the frontline, the humanitarian consequences could be severe.