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In The News

Putin In Belarus: Is Lukashenko Ready To Enter The Ukraine War?

Five days after Minsk's troops began amassing at the Belarus-Ukraine border, Russian President Vladimir Putin has arrived for an impromptu summit with Alexander Lukashenko. Belarus' strongman is increasingly seen as no longer having the option to say No to entering Putin's war against Ukraine.

photo of Lukashenko greeting Putin, both smiling

Belarus' President Alexander Lukashenko welcomes his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin at the airport in the capital of Minsk

Anna Akage

This article has been updated on Dec. 19, 2022 at 4:40 p.m. CET with news developments

Russian President Vladimir Putin landed in Belarus on Monday, raising concerns that he had come to seal the country's leader Alexander Lukashenko's commitment to join the war against Ukraine.

International observers said the objective of Putin's visit — his first to the country since 2019 — is to push Belarus to send troops across the border into Ukraine, which he's so far avoided doing, despite allowing Russia to launch air and ground attacks from its territory.

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Ahead of his meeting with Putin, Lukashenko said that the country would decide for itself if it would go to war – but there were signs last week that he was preparing to help out. On Dec. 13, Belarusian troops began rapidly deploying to the Ukrainian border and the country’s defense ministry announced a “sudden inspection of combat readiness.”

The inspection finished just before Putin landed in Minsk on Monday, the Belarusian government said, as Russian media reported that troops stationed in Belarus had been ordered to start military exercises.

Over the past week, the Belaruski Gayun media has recorded increasing numbers of troops massing on the border with Ukraine.

Though such sudden exercises have occurred at other times since the beginning of the war, this time it comes amid an accumulation of signs that point to Lukashenko preparing to give final orders. Putin's visit Monday, which was announced less than 48 hours earlier, appears to confirm movement afoot.


Local witnesses also report Belarusian forces have begun to build pontoon boat crossings across the Berezina river near the border, apparently for the speedy transfer of equipment to Ukraine. In addition, Russian MiG-31K fighters, which can carry hypersonic air-launched ballistic missiles, arrived at airbases in Belarus.

Meaning of Makiej’s death

Oleksandr Azarov, the founder of BYPOL, composed of former Belarusian law enforcement officers, believes that Lukashenko has already decided to invade Ukraine.

"I think Makiej did not die by chance,” Azarov said, referring to Vladimir Makiej, Belarus’s Foreign Minister, who died suddenly on Nov. 26 on the eve of his visit to Poland.

“He was going to negotiate guarantees for Lukashenko and his family. Instead, Russian Defense Minister (Sergei) Shoigu comes to Belarus and signs secret military documents. Lukashenko was not allowed to retreat."

The Lukashenko regime has tried in the past to maintain some level of autonomy from Russia. But military and economic reliance on the Kremlin's support multiplied after Belarus’ 2020 elections when the longtime strongman ruler retained the presidency by violently suppressing protests against the rigged voting results.

​Lukashenko in a corner

The 68-year-old Lukashenko may prefer to keep the country out of the war, knowing there is minimal support among Belarusians for invading Ukraine. Yet he also knows that not only his political career but his life is ultimately in the hands of Vladimir Putin. And with Ukrainian troops largely outperforming Russians on the front line, Putin appears to need to open up a new front from the north.

Ukrainian military expert Petro Chernyk also believes that the moment for Minsk to enter the war has arrived.

"The sudden check of the combat readiness of the Belarusian army indicates that Russia is raising the stakes. I emphasize that it is Russia, not Belarus. Putin needs Belarus to officially enter the land war with Ukraine now,” says Chernyk, who notes that heavy missile strikes have already been taking place from Belarus. “They are really already at war with us."

It's a question of when, not if.

Tuesday evening the Commander of the Joint Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Lieutenant-General Serhiy Nayev, discussed the situation on the border with Belarus with his colleague from the Operational Command of the Armed Forces of Poland, Lieutenant General Tomasz Piotrowski.

Ukrainian volunteers have also intensified their assistance to the Ukrainian military on the Belarusian border: in recent weeks, the prominent "Come Back Alive" organization has been focusing on helping the Ukrainian Armed Forces coordinate defense measures vis-à-vis Belarus. The head of the foundation, Taras Chmut, estimates the possibility of an attack from Belarus this winter as high.

BYPOL founder Oleksandr Azarov believes that Belarus troops crossing the border is inevitable, a question of when not if. Another sign he cites is the constant psychological manipulation spread by the Belarus regime among the troops: “to convince the military that they should support their ‘Russian brothers.’”

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Economy

Why India Should Bet On A BRICS Future (And Let G20 Pass On By)

With the G20 in New Delhi around the corner, India risks finding itself the wrong side of history, and end up as an observer and not one of the drivers of a "once in a lifetime" change.

People walking by a conference room at the ​BRICS Summit in Sandton, South Africa on Aug. 24

BRICS Summit in Sandton, South Africa on Aug. 24

Pravin Sawhney

-Analysis-

NEW DELHIIndia may believe it is in strategic competition with China over leadership of the Global South but the recent BRICS meet made it clear who is calling the shots. Watching from afar, the U.S.-led G7 nations could see that China was the key determinant of the summit’s accomplishments and that their own influence over the developing world had diminished substantially.

The biggest unsaid gain made by China was the deft shifting of its global geopolitical game – based on "common prosperity and cooperative security" — from east Asia to the 54-nation African continent. The attendance of some 35 African nations at the Johannesburg summit as South Africa’s invitees, followed by 50 African nations attending the third China-Africa Peace and Security forum in Beijing on Aug. 29 is testimony to the attraction President Xi Jinping’s "Global Development Initiative" (GDI) and "Global Security Initiative" (GSI) hold for the Global South.

The focus of the China-Africa Peace and Security forum was on peacekeeping (most of China’s 2,700+ peacekeepers are in Africa), counterterrorism, cyber security, humanitarian aid and military education.

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