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InterNations
Green

A Hot Day Melts It, But Global Warming Could Make Chocolate Vanish For Good

The devastating effects of rising temperatures include denying to people across the world their favorite staple sweet. While 2050 is the date cited for the risk of chocolate disappearing, there are efforts to reverse the effects of climate change on the production of cocoa.

photo showing A woman holding a bar of chocolate in her hands in a living room in front of the TV.

16 June 2023 - A woman holds a bar of chocolate in her hands in a living room in front of the TV.

Hendrik Schmidt/ZUMA
Ángela Sepúlveda

MADRIDClimate change has devastating large-scale effects, including violent floods and intense heat waves, but it also has consequences for our mundane daily routines: that bar of chocolate you enjoy in the afternoon may become a luxury item by 2050. Experts predict we will see a drastic reduction in cocoa production as a result of an increasingly extreme climate.

Cocoa trees thrive under specific conditions: consistent temperatures, high humidity, abundant rainfall and protection from strong winds. These circumstances are only found in tropical rainforests, with the main producers in Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Ecuador and Indonesia.

According to the 2016 study "Climate and Chocolate" by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA), the scientific agency of the U.S. Department of Commerce, it will become harder to harvest cocoa by 2050 due to evapotranspiration affecting the cultivation lands.


African heat

This means that as the planet’s temperature rises due to the climate crisis, the land will lose moisture through direct evaporation, coupled with the vegetation’s loss of water through transpiration.

One option being considered is genetically modifying cocoa seeds.

Climate change will cause land where cocoa is currently harvested to become warmer and drier, putting cultivation at risk. According to a 2011 study on the impact of climate change in Ghana and Côte d'Ivoire, in order to continue cocoa production, Ghana will have to move its plantations from 450 to 500 meters above sea level, while Côte d'Ivoire will have to move them from 100 to 250 meters.

These may seem like small differences in elevation, but relocation can be challenging, including issues accessing difficult terrain or environmentally protected areas. The situation is not so different in other cocoa-producing regions beyond Ghana and Côte d'Ivoire, especially considering that cocoa only grows with a 20-degree radius north and south of the equator, where favorable meteorological and soil conditions are found.

image showing Cocoa cultivation emerges again with numerous farms dedicated to the cultivation of chocolate raw material in Venezuela.

Carabobo, Venezuela: August 11, 2019. Cocoa cultivation emerges again with numerous farms dedicated to the cultivation of chocolate raw material in Venezuela.

Juan Carlos Hernandez/ZUMA

A last chance

Researchers estimate that the necessary relocation of cocoa plantations to continue production could happen over several decades, so there is still room to adapt. One option being considered is genetically modifying cocoa seeds so that they may thrive in the new atmospheric conditions and survive long, dry periods ahead. Another option would be to produce chocolate artificially in laboratories, which is already being explored by a university in Colombia.

While those solutions are being developed, there is already a technique which can be practiced on the ground to mitigate the effects of climate change on cocoa plantations. Originating from Brazil, this technique is called ‘cabruca’ and is already being implemented in other countries. It involves preserving or replanting other trees from the rainforest in the same area as cocoa trees to provide shade. This helps reduce temperatures and the evapotranspiration phenomenon.

These companion trees also offer protection from strong winds and reduce soil erosion. UN-funded projects have already implemented this technique in cocoa-growing areas of Ghana with positive results.

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FOCUS: Russia-Ukraine War

Ivan The Terrible's "Third Rome" And The Enduring Myth Of Russian Supremacism

Tracing the early roots of the concept of the "Russian world" that sees the Russian state as eternal and impervious to change. Its primary objective is the establishment of a robust national state, a realm of expansionism where autocracy is the only form of governance possible.

photo of tomb of the unknown soldier Moscow

Tomb of the unknown soldier Moscow

Vazhnyye Istorii

Updated Dec. 10, 2023 at 9:45 p.m.

-Analysis-

Looking back at the start of the 16th century, the Grand Duchy of Moscow had emerged victorious over its Orthodox rivals, including principalities such as Tver and the Novgorod Republic. At the time, a significant portion of the eastern Slavic lands was under Catholic Lithuania's control.

So, how did Moscow rise to prominence?

On the surface, Moscow appeared to fill the void left by the Mongolian Golden Horde. While Moscow had previously collected tributes from other principalities, it now retained these resources for itself. There was an inclination for Muscovy to expand further eastward, assimilating fragments of the Genghisid empire. However, aligning the descendants of ancient Rus’ with the heirs of Genghis Khan would necessitate a fundamental shift in the state's identity. This was particularly complex due to the prevalent ideology built around religion, with the Tatar khans, unlike the Russian princes, adhering to Islam.

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In the early 16th century, a Pskov monk named Philotheus introduced a new idea: that Moscow represented the "third Rome."

According to Philotheus, the first Rome had succumbed to Latin heresy (Catholicism), and the second, Constantinople, had fallen to Turkish conquest. He believed Moscow was now the capital of the only Orthodox state remaining in the world. Philotheus presented his worldview to Grand Duke Vasily III, advocating for the unification of all Christian kingdoms into one.

The descendants of ancient Rus’ sought to trace their lineage back to Prus, the legendary brother of the first Roman emperor Augustus Octavian, establishing a link between Russia and the first Rome. Even though historical evidence doesn't support these claims, Ivan IV, better known as Ivan the Terrible, proudly asserted his connection to Augustus Octavian. He took the concept of the third Rome very seriously and became the first Russian ruler to take on the title of the tsar.

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