A long summer

Anyone who talks to soldiers like them hears a great deal of humility on the ground. After 15 months of war, many are exhausted, both physically and mentally. Almost everyone now knows someone who has died on the battlefield, and they all know that thousands more are likely to follow in this offensive.

Their will is unbroken.

At the same time, the will of the vast majority of Ukrainian fighters is unbroken.

Only when the last "orc" or "f***er" has been driven out — as Russian soldiers derogatorily call them — will there be time for peace, they often say. Nevertheless, I have the impression that many Ukrainian soldiers do not share the exuberant optimism of some experts for this summer, for three reasons.

Air power

First, the major weakness of this Ukrainian offensive is the air force. For the time being, until the expected delivery of modern F-16 jets later this fall, the military has to cope with a small number of obsolete Soviet models. This leaves Ukraine without air superiority to protect its ground forces.

While Western air defense systems are available, some of them are needed to protect civilians and cannot be moved to frontline regions. The fact that Western backers have delayed jet deliveries for so long is a failure and will result in Ukrainian losses.

Markus Reisner, Colonel of the Guard of the Austrian Armed Forces, believes the hesitation over arms deliveries is a strategy: "The Americans are trying to send a clear signal to the Russians and Putin that continuing the war has no chance of success. Because they always provide the Ukrainians with just enough to defend themselves. But not much more, either. And that's the key thing: the U.S. is not cornering the Russians, because it wants to avoid escalation."

Indeed, even the highest-ranking U.S. General Mark Milley had recently called a Ukrainian recapture of all territory this year unrealistic.

Heavy casualties

Secondly, the Ukrainian military held on to the heavily contested town of Bakhmut until the spring. Then Russian troops took the last neighborhoods as well. There and at other front-line locations in the Donbass, not only did the Russian military lose many soldiers, but also Ukraine.

According to WELT information, some units in Bakhmut, consisting of about 100 soldiers, had casualty rates of more than 80% dead or wounded. Ukrainian commanders have argued that Russia has been more weakened by the fighting. Whether this calculation works out, and what the consequences of possible personnel shortages on both sides might be, will become clear in the summer.

Lessons learned

Third, while Russia has made many military mistakes in this war, their army is also learning. In recent months, Russian forces have been digging deep defensive positions in the frontline regions, with minefields, armored trenches and other obstacles.

Ukraine has received special equipment for this, including German mine-clearing and bridge-laying tanks, although not on a large scale. One risk is that the defensive wall could slow down the Ukrainian offensive.

Despite all this, I personally firmly expect that the Ukrainian military will break through the Russian defense lines at some sections of the front. I think it is realistic that we will again experience a kind of "Kharkiv moment," as in autumn 2022, when Ukrainian forces drove deep into occupied territory and left Russian troops suddenly exposed along certain sections. We should not forget that Ukraine is not only receiving Western arms, but also information from intelligence services such as the American CIA and the German Federal Intelligence Service (BND).

Hopes of an overwhelming Ukrainian advance leading to the retaking of large parts of the previously occupied territories in a few months' time seem unlikely to me at present. In fact, there is only one scenario in which this would be conceivable: if panic breaks out among Russian soldiers on a broad front, and discipline is lost. In a static battle, as has been shown time and again, the Russians are superior due to massive artillery fire.

Germany, Europe and the U.S. must fundamentally clarify what they see as the goal of this counteroffensive. Is Ukraine supposed to somehow survive at the end of all the fighting, or is it really supposed to win by retaking large parts of the occupied territories? For the latter, we are delivering too slowly, and not enough.