Ukraine's position on the attack

It is notable that such a clamorous incident linked directly to Putin comes amid reports that Ukraine may be launching a major counter-offensive against Russia’s invading troops. Sources in Kyiv have denied any responsibility, and alluded to Moscow being behind the incident, described as a “trick” to justify an outsized response.

"We have no information about the so-called overnight attack on the Kremlin,” Serhii Nykyforov, spokesman for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

Later, Zelensky flatly denied Kyiv's involvement: "We don't attack Putin or Moscow," Zelensky said during a news conference in Helsinki. "We fight on our territory, we are defending our villages and cities."

Yet whether Moscow or Kyiv orchestrated the Kremlin attack, the imminent counter-offensive that Ukraine has been planning would appear to be central to the calculation.

If Ukraine was indeed able to deploy a drone so deep inside Russian territory, aimed directly at Putin, it could be a way to unsettle the Kremlin and stoke internal divisions in Moscow as the counter-offensive begins.

A pretext for Moscow?

Instead, the incident may wind up turning out to be a so-called "false flag" attack, used as a pretext for Moscow to go after Ukrainian civilian targets. Top Zelensky advisor Mikhail Podolyak put forward that scenario late Wednesday, warning that Russia is “planning a large-scale terrorist attack.”

I think that the Ukrainian army’s offensive has already begun.

Moscow has been stepping up attacks on Ukrainian territory, including those aimed at weapons supply centers. At least 16 civilians were killed Wednesday in heavy shelling in the eastern Ukrainian region of Kherson.

If Russian forces are outmatched on the battlefield, attacking cities and innocent civilians could be seen as a last-ditch tactic to avoid defeat.

Yevgeny Prigozhin, the founder of Russia’s Wagner Group private military company, whose forces are fighting in eastern Ukraine, declared on Wednesday that he believes the "active phase" of the Ukrainian counter-offensive is about to begin.

"I think that the Ukrainian army’s offensive has already begun. We are seeing increased activity of enemy aircraft, increased activity around the perimeter of, and inside, our front,” he said. “Though we continue to control the inside of our front, the situation around the perimeter is unfortunately not looking so good. Our flanks…how reliable are they? I will not say anything about that for now.”