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FOCUS: Russia-Ukraine War

Did Putin Tip Off Dam Attack With A Veiled Nuclear Threat Last Week?

After significant sections of the Nova Kakhovka dam were destroyed in a Russian-controlled part of southern Ukraine, independent Russian media Agents.Media has pieced together Vladimir Putin declarations on May 30 that may have been a warning of a false-flag attack.

Image of ​Russian President Vladimir Putin attends a meeting in Moscow

Russian President Vladimir Putin attends a meeting in Moscow

The torrent of water unleashed after the attack of the Nova Kakhovka dam has flooded several nearby villages and sparked widespread evacuations. But it has also prompted fears for the security of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, which depends on water from the river for cooling.

The proximity to the plant is, however, not the only link to a possible nuclear risk. After the breach of the dam, the Russian secret service FSB claimed to have thwarted a planned dirty bomb attack on Russian soil. The FSB claim comes exactly a week after Russian President Vladimir Putin raised the specter of a dirty bomb attack and threats to the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, which is just upstream from the Nova Kakhovka dam.

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Commentators have interpreted Putin’s statements as a veiled threat directed towards Ukraine, and the latest allusion to a possible Russian "false flag" operation that is used as a pretext for a major attack in response.


“Citizens of Ukraine, who, of course, do not have any say right now as total terror has been unleashed against them (by the Kyiv government), should at least know what the current leadership of their country is pushing for,” Putin said on May 30. “They must understand that there are other threats. For example, attempts to disrupt the operation of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant or to use some dirty devices linked to nuclear technology. We have talked about this more than once. We know what they have in mind.”

Dirty bomb?

Following a comment on an apparent Ukrainian drone attack on Moscow on May 30, Putin accused Kyiv of plotting to disrupt the functioning of the Zaporizhzhia plant and of planning to use dirty bombs. Is it a coincidence that just a week later, on Tuesday morning, a significant breach in the Nova Kakhovka dam occurred, threatening water supplies to the nuclear plant’s cooling systems?

It was shortly after the incident, that the FSB made their claim about the would-be Ukrainian strike on Russian territory with a dirty bomb, a conventional explosive combined with radioactive material.

The FSB reported the detention of two people who it claimed were pilots who confessed to plotting the delivery of dirty bombs to an unspecified location. These devices were allegedly equipped with delay timers, intended to detonate simultaneously and render the targeted area uninhabitable, the secret service claimed.

Image of Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant

Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant

© Michael Brochstein / ZUMA

Shoigu's claims

Ukrainian nuclear energy operator, Energoatom, warned that the destruction of the dam could result in a significant decrease in water levels. But according to the operator, the current water supply is sufficient to maintain the safety of the nuclear plant. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) also stated that there is no immediate threat to nuclear safety yet.

Russian authorities talked about the threat of a dirty bomb last fall. In October, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu called his counterparts from the United States, Britain, France and Turkey and claimed that Ukraine was preparing for a provocation using a dirty bomb.

Kyiv has denied Moscow's assertions, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned in October that Russia was planning a "false flag" operation at the Kakhovka dam.

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Geopolitics

Why China Has Bet On A Bigger (And Nastier) BRICS To Challenge The West

The BRICS economies' inclusion of new members like Iran may not make business sense, but it fits with the Sino-Russian strategy of drawing states of the Global South into their orbit in open confrontation with the U.S. and the rest of the West.

Photo of Chinese President Xi Jinping and Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi

Chinese President Xi Jinping meets with Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi on the sidelines of the 15th BRICS Summit in South Africa

Marcelo Cantelmi

-Analysis-

BUENOS AIRES — Last month's summit in Johannesburg of BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa), leading to a decision to expand the club, felt like geopolitical déjà vu. It recalled the 1960s Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) of Third World states that refused, apparently, to take sides in the Cold War, either with the capitalist West or Soviet-led communism.

NAM neutrality was limited, often deceptive, and became obsolete with the fall of the Communist bloc in the late 1980s. The dilemma of what was then called the Third World — now, the Global South — was in the stance it should take toward Russia, the successor state to the Soviet Union that shared few of its traits and goals. Ideologically, the end of communism confused NAM: It didn't know what to do with itself.

That is until now, with an apparent resuscitation of its spirit in BRICS (formed in 2009). Yet the idea of equidistance ends there, as BRICS is led by Russia and communist China and increasingly a part of their open challenge to Western hegemony.

Its founders include Brazil, which has its own agenda, and India. Both states have adopted their own versions of neutrality in the Ukrainian crisis, first in 2014 when Russia annexed Crimea from Ukraine,then after its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in Feb. 2022.

So far, says Oliver Stuenkel, a professor at Brazil's Getulio Vargas Foundation, the two states have resisted Russia's systematic bid to use an explicitly anti-Western vocabulary in BRICS documents. This, he says, would explain the vague tone of the group's resolutions.

South Africa, the last member to join the group (in 2010), is a lesser power in terms of economy and political clout. But it symbolizes the worldwide spirit the group would come to embody.

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