Revenge Of “Sh*thole Countries”? What Trump II Means For U.S.-Africa Relations

–Analysis–

BERLIN — One memorable aspect of Donald Trump’s first term, especially noted in African nations, was his derogatory reference to multiple African nations as “shithole countries.” Trump used the expression in 2018, and during his first presidency, he largely overlooked the continent.

There are few indications that Trump has changed his views. So, what might his re-election mean for Africa? Who on the continent welcomes his return to the White House, and who fears it?

The pan-African magazine The Continent commented on the U.S. election results with a cartoon depicting Trump with a long red tie, cutting the U.S. out of a globe and whistling away with the cut-out country shape under his arm. The caption reads: “We must be our own leaders now.”

If only it were that simple. The U.S. is not about to disengage from Africa. On the contrary, issues such as the power struggle with China, Trump’s climate policies, the influence of evangelical right-wing groups in the new administration, and plans to deport millions of immigrants will have deep impact from Cairo to Johannesburg.

Consequently, African leaders were quick not only to congratulate the election winner but also to seek out U.S. lobbyists who can provide access to the Trump administration. Some approached this with a sense of triumph, while others felt nervous or had ominous anticipation.

Cooperation with “focus countries”

Project 2025 — a 900-page document from the far-right Heritage Foundation often cited as a blueprint for a second Trump administration — advises the government not to spread money across Africa indiscriminately but rather to select “focus countries.”

This suggests little or no funding for multilateral institutions and UN programs. Instead, there would be a focus on countries expected to have a “mutually beneficial relationship,” which would receive a “full suite of American engagement,” including bilateral economic aid, easier access to the U.S. market, and military support.

Silence on international climate protection is expected.

While Project 2025 does not explicitly state what African nations must do to be designated as “focus countries,” some criteria are evident: keep a maximum distance from China (which has secured access to many strategically important resources in Africa); don’t criticize Israel and its treatment of Palestinians; adhere to conservative family values while rejecting health and family planning programs that promote contraception or abortion; make no further demands for reform of the international financial architecture dominated by the U.S.; and accept deported immigrants without objection.

Moreover, silence on international climate protection is expected.

With some of these demands, Trump will find open doors. But this won’t be the case everywhere. For other demands, he will encounter resistance, but again, not universally.

Mixed reactions to re-election

Who has welcomed Trump’s victory wholeheartedly?

For instance, Uganda’s ruling party expressed joy after facing pressure from the Biden administration over its harsh anti-LGBTQ laws. Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed also showed enthusiasm despite his close economic ties with China. His Ethiopia First policy may find sympathy in the new U.S. government, especially given that predominantly Christian Orthodox Ethiopia often presents itself as a stronghold against Islamism.

On the contrary, Kenya’s President William Ruto appears anxious about Trump’s return. His country had recently become the African darling of the Biden administration, which courted Ruto as the leader of a pro-American stronghold (while generously overlooking endemic corruption and deadly police violence).

South Africa’s President Cyril Ramaphosa also reacted with mixed feelings. South Africa initiated legal action against Israel at the International Criminal Court alleging that Israel had committed and was committing genocide in Gaza — an issue that Biden found appalling. Under Trump, South Africa could become a “focus” country in a negative sense, facing various punitive measures.

Dangerous prospects for millions

This brings us to the preliminary list of African losers of the U.S. election. The result is bitter and dangerous for Africa’s LGBTQ community, which is already facing backlash. Not only in Uganda, where homosexuality can now be punishable by death under certain circumstances. Pressure to uphold human rights can no longer be expected from Washington. Instead, evangelical and homophobic lobby groups and NGOs will gain influence.

The situation is equally dire for millions of African women dependent on UN health and family planning programs. They face severe cuts due to Trump’s anticipated reduction in funding for multilateral organizations and a return to taboo regarding contraception and abortion. Family policy has historically been a playground for right-wing Christian factions under Republican presidents — and this trend is likely to continue.

Africa suffers disproportionately from climate change despite contributing minimally to global emissions.

The most devastating impact will be on Africa’s climate efforts. The continent suffers disproportionately from climate change despite contributing minimally to global emissions. While Trump cannot stop the global trend toward renewable energy, he will likely cut already insufficient financial flows to Global South nations needing help against crop failures, droughts, floods and transitioning their energy systems.

Despite these challenges following the U.S. elections, there is no sign of resignation among African climate justice movements.

“Now is the moment of truth,” writes Mohamed Adow, Kenyan climate expert and head of the Powershift Africa think tank, appealing to civil societies worldwide — not just within Africa. He recalls successful past mobilizations and expresses hope that they can happen again: “It worked then. It can work again.”

You can see the courage of despair in this. Or simply the determination of those for whom resignation is not an option.