eyes on the U.S.

Is America On The Verge Of Irrelevance?

Essay: Are we witnessing the U.S. empire head into its final decline? Obama is drifting. Republican candidates inspire little confidence. But viewed from Europe, which is more skeptical than ever, it’s worth taking a closer look at a nation with the Peter

Uncle Sam on the fritz (Rich Anderson)
Uncle Sam on the fritz (Rich Anderson)
Alan Posener

BERLIN -- When it's not busy with its own problems, Europe looks across the Atlantic and shakes its head. America would appear to be on an unstoppable downward spiral.

While neo-conservative dreams of the "unipolar moment" disperse, troops are withdrawn from Iraq and Afghanistan, the ups and the downs of the dollar depend on China, and Standard & Poor's has lowered its credit rating - and all the while, the country is politically paralyzed.

Barack Obama's "Yes, we can!" now seems like a stale joke. Nothing can move the president, and Congress is busy blocking itself. Democrats and Republicans were unable to agree on a savings program, while Republicans prepare to block an extension of tax cuts that Obama introduced to try and improve the economic situation.

Conservative hatred of the president is so great that they would rather choke the modest upturn than allow him to enjoy a modest success. Under George W. Bush, the U.S. was a source of great irritation for Europeans; under Obama, it just seems irrevelant. Seldom has America seemed so alien.

The sense of alienation becomes full-blown apprehension when one takes a look at the Republican candidates for president. An early favorite was the execution-happy governor of Texas, Rick Perry, who doesn't believe in evolution, does believe in punishing gay intercourse, and thinks the economic crisis is a lesson from God.

Then came Herman Cain. The Baptist, a former manager of a pizza chain and proponent of a flat tax, would prohibit both immigration and abortion. Before allegations of sexual harassment took the steam out of his campaign, "The Hermanator" was a darling of the Tea-Party movement.

Another star is Michele Bachmann. She believes that "Intelligent Design" should be taught in schools, calls climate change "voodoo," thinks that the movie "The Lion King" is gay propaganda (because the music was written by Elton John) and that Obama is a Marxist.

But now it seems, only two candidates really stand a chance: Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich. A Mormon, Romney belongs to a religion that not long ago believed blacks and Native Americans were inferior, and openly supported polygamy. (The Church of the Latter-Day Saints has since moved away from these positions.)

Gingrich, as Republican leader in the House of Representatives and the country's "moral majority," led the move to impeach Bill Clinton for his affair with intern Monica Lewinsky. As has since been revealed, the thrice-married serial adulterer Gingrich was at the time having an affair with a 20-something staffer whom he has since married, and for whom he converted to Catholicism. To call his behavior hypocritical is understating the case.

So is this America? A declining, decadent empire that like late Rome is overrun by populists and fundamentalists telling uneducated masses what they want to hear as the barbarians gather along its borders?

Where "populist" is an honorable thing

Caution is advised here. America has often been written off, particularly when its president is in a weakened position: think of the great Lyndon B. Johnson's last years, the paranoid end of Richard Nixon, the "malaise" diagnosed by Jimmy Carter, or Herbert Hoover during the Great Depression. And the country always managed to pull itself back together -- there was always a Franklin D. Roosevelt or a Ronald Reagan to give the U.S. a sense of its own identity and its place in the world.

As far as the Tea Party movement is concerned, it is part of a long tradition of anti-authoritarian revolts against Washington. Not for nothing does it take its name from the first Tea Party, when by way of protest against import duties imposed by the British parliament, citizens of Boston went aboard ships and dumped cargoes of tea into the harbor.

America was founded by people who were allergic to any concentration of power and it remains a country of countless small towns that mistrust the Big City, Big Business, and Big Government.

At the end of the 19th century, poor farmers formed the People's Party, aka, the Populists, that was hostile to banks, large property owners and other elites. Even today the word "populist" has an honorable ring to it. America remains an anti-authoritarian nation, and its reluctance to grow up is one of its strengths. College drop-out Steve Jobs would probably never have had a career in Germany.

And the Republicans? Without trying to gloss over their irresponsible policy of blocking measures in Congress, or their susceptibility to being seduced by people like Sarah Palin, one can't help but be impressed by the new ideas emanating from the party following the demise of the Neocons – one thinks of Cain's tax reform, or some of the ideas of libertarian Ron Paul.

Even if Newt Gingrich's past or Mitt Romney's religion cause some heads to shake, both are experienced center-right politicians. As Governor of Massachusetts, Romney introduced health care reforms that formed the basis for the "Obamacare" so despised by radical Republicans. And Gingrich has become a bona fide ideas man, rather than a hardened ideologue, who worked with Hillary Clinton on health reform.

Each one of them would be a good challenger for Barack Obama. Yes, the president is still very much there, and it would be a mistake to write him off. If he manages to win re-election in 2012, he just might provide the leadership that Europe – itself, deeply divided and drifting into recession – urgently needs.

Read the original article in German

Photo - Rich Anderson

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Geopolitics

Iran-Saudi Arabia Rivalry May Be Set To Ease, Or Get Much Worse

The Saudis may be awaiting the outcome of Iran's nuclear talks with the West, to see whether Tehran will moderate its regional policies, or lash out like never before.

Military parade in Tehran, Iran, on Oct. 3

-Analysis-

LONDON — The Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh said earlier this month that Iranian and Saudi negotiators had so far had four rounds of "continuous" talks, though both sides had agreed to keep them private. The talks are to ease fraught relations between Iran's radical Shia regime and the Saudi kingdom, a key Western ally in the Middle East.

Iran's Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian has said that the talks were going in the right direction, while an Iranian trade official was recently hopeful these might even allow trade opportunities for Iranian businessmen in Saudi Arabia. As the broadcaster France 24 observed separately, it will take more than positive signals to heal a five-year-rift and decades of mutual suspicions.


Agence France-Presse news agency, meanwhile, has cited an unnamed French diplomat as saying that Saudi Arabia wants to end its costly discord with Tehran. The sides may already have agreed to reopen consular offices. For Saudi Arabia, the costs include its war on Iran-backed Houthis rebels fighting an UN-recognized government in next-door Yemen.

The role of the nuclear pact

Bilateral relations were severed in January 2016, after regime militiamen stormed the Saudi embassy in Tehran. Amirabdollahian was then the deputy foreign minister for Arab affairs. In 2019, he told the website Iranian Diplomacy that Saudi Arabia had taken measures vis-a-vis Iran's nuclear pact with the world powers.

It's unlikely Ali Khamenei will tolerate the Saudi kingdom's rising power in the region.

He said "the Saudis' insane conduct toward [the pact] led them to conclude that they must prevent [its implementation] in a peaceful environment ... I think the Saudis are quite deluded, and their delusion consists in thinking that Trump is an opportunity for them to place themselves on the path of conflict with the Islamic Republic while relying on Trump." He meant the administration led by the U.S. President Donald J.Trump, which was hostile to Iran's regime. This, he said, "is not how we view Saudi Arabia. I think Yemen should have been a big lesson for the Saudis."

The minister was effectively admitting the Houthis were the Islamic Republic's tool for getting back at Saudi Arabia.

Yet in the past two years, both sides have taken steps to improve relations, without firm results as yet. Nor is the situation likely to change this time.

Photo of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in 2020

Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in 2020

commons.wikimedia.org

Riyadh's warming relations with Israel

Iran's former ambassador in Lebanon, Ahmad Dastmalchian, told the ILNA news agency in Tehran that Saudi Arabia is doing Israel's bidding in the region, and has "entrusted its national security, and life and death to Tel Aviv." Riyadh, he said, had been financing a good many "security and political projects in the region," or acting as a "logistical supplier."

The United States, said Dastmalchian, has "in turn tried to provide intelligence and security backing, while Israel has simply followed its own interests in all this."

Furthermore, it seems unlikely Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei will tolerate, even in this weak period of his leadership, the kingdom's rising power in the region and beyond, and especially its financial clout. He is usually disparaging when he speaks of Riyadh's princely rulers. In 2017, he compared them to "dairy cows," saying, "the idiots think that by giving money and aid, they can attract the goodwill of Islam's enemies."

Iranian regime officials are hopeful of moving toward better diplomatic ties and a reopening of embassies. Yet the balance of power between the sides began to change in Riyadh's favor years ago. For the kingdom's power has shifted from relying mostly on arms, to economic and political clout. The countries might have had peaceful relations before in considerably quieter, and more equitable, conditions than today's acute clash of interests.

For if nuclear talks break down, Iran's regime may become more aggressive.

Beyond this, the Abraham Accord or reconciliation of Arab states and Israel has been possible thanks to the green light that the Saudis gave their regional partners, and it is a considerable political and ideological defeat for the Islamic Republic.

Assuming all Houthis follow Tehran's instructions — and they may not — improved ties may curb attacks on Saudi interests and aid its economy. Tehran will also benefit from no longer having to support them. Unlike Iran's regime, the Saudis are not pressed for cash or resources and could even offer the Houthis a better deal. Presently, they may consider it more convenient to keep the softer approach toward Tehran.

For if nuclear talks with the West break down, Iran's regime may become more aggressive, and as experience has shown, tensions often prompt a renewal of missile or drone attacks on the Saudis, on tankers and on foreign shipping. Riyadh must have a way of keeping the Tehran regime quiet, in a distinctly unquiet time.

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