When the world gets closer.

We help you see farther.

Sign up to our expressly international daily newsletter.

Enjoy unlimited access to quality journalism.

Limited time offer

Get your 30-day free trial!

AMERICA ECONOMIA (Chile)

SANTIAGO - With the World Cup coming to South America in 2014, the soccer-crazed continent is already worrying who will qualify, and who will be forced to stay at home and watch the others soak up the glory.

Well, if you are an Argentinian, Chilean, or Uruguayan, your team is going to be among those competing in Brazil’s World Cup two years from now. At least that is what a group of macroeconomists from Banco Itaú, a Brazilian bank, say, América Economía reports.

The method used by the group, led by economist Caio Megale, is based on the assumption that since 1998, when the current elimination system was introduced, all teams with a win rate of over 70 percent qualified for the tournament, whereas all teams with a win rate less than 30 percent did not.

“From that information, we are calculating the probability of participation in the tournament based on projections of performances in the elimination rounds, giving teams with a higher than 70 percent win rate a 100 percent chance of being in the tournament, and using a non-linear regression down to 0 percent chances of participating in the tournament for teams with less than 30 percent win rate,” the economics team explained.

Based on data from the rounds that have already been played it looks like Argentina, Uruguay and Chile are fairly certain of playing in Brazil, where there are four spots for South American teams, not including Brazil that qualifies automatically as host.

Colombia is on the brink, with a win rate of only 44 percent. The only possible surprise is if Ecuador, currently trailing behind Colombia, maintains its performance and knocks out the Colombians. Ecuador, it’s time to invest in some goals!

You've reached your limit of free articles.

To read the full story, start your free trial today.

Get unlimited access. Cancel anytime.

Exclusive coverage from the world's top sources, in English for the first time.

Insights from the widest range of perspectives, languages and countries.

Ideas

How U.S. Airlines Are Doing Cuba's Dirty Work On American Soil

American and Southwest Airlines have been refusing to allow Cubans on board flights if they've been blacklisted by the government in Havana.

How U.S. Airlines Are Doing Cuba's Dirty Work On American Soil

Boarding a plane in Camaguey, Cuba

Santiago Villa

On Sunday, American Airlines refused to let Cuban writer Carlos Manuel Álvarez board a Miami flight bound for Havana. It was at least the third time this year that a U.S. airline refused to let Cubans on board to return to their homeland after Havana circulated a government "blacklist" of critics of the regime. Clearly undemocratic and possibly illegal under U.S. law, the airlines want to make sure to cash in on a lucrative travel route, writes Colombian journalist Santiago Villa:

-OpEd-

Imagine for a moment that you left your home country years ago because you couldn't properly pursue your chosen career there. It wasn't easy, of course: Your profession is not just singularly demanding, but even at the top of the game you might not be assured a stable or sufficient income, and you've had to take on second jobs, working in bars and restaurants.

This chosen vocation is that of a writer or journalist, or perhaps an artist, which has kept you tied to your homeland, often the subject of your work, even if you don't live there anymore.

Since leaving, you've been back home several times, though not so much for work. Because if you did, you would be followed in cars and receive phone calls to let you know you are being watched.

Keep reading...Show less

You've reached your limit of free articles.

To read the full story, start your free trial today.

Get unlimited access. Cancel anytime.

Exclusive coverage from the world's top sources, in English for the first time.

Insights from the widest range of perspectives, languages and countries.

The latest