SANTIAGO — The fallout from the failed 2012 population census in Chile is huge, even though the country has yet to grasp its full impact. A recent report from an investigating committee advises that the results shouldn’t be used for official figures, and recommends that the census be repeated correctly in 2015.
Though the government characterized it as “the best census in the history of Chile,” it left almost 10% of the country’s inhabitants (more than a million people) unaccounted for. The number of errors was so high that, when the National Institute of Statistics (INE) started to process the data, the professionals tasked with producing the results immediately voiced their complaints. Their dissatisfaction reached the ears of the press, and the scandal has snowballed ever since.
INE’s director was forced to resign, and was subsequently appointed to the investigating committee that has advised the country to start the whole process all over again, throwing the results of the 2012 census — which cost $33 million — out with the garbage.
In practical terms, this means that Chile has no official population figures for the time being. When it comes to budget allocations that are assigned proportionally according to regional, provincial or municipality population, estimated figures will have to be used based on updated versions of the 2002 census. What’s more, there will have to be some agreement on which estimates to use.
The census catastrophe also means that Chile’s per capita income is completely unknown. If actual population figures matched those from the disputed 2012 census, per capita income would be hovering around the $20,000 mark. If, however, the real population is closer to pre-census predictions, per capita income of $18,000 would be more accurate.
The significance of a census that provides unsound information is clear: If a country uses these erroneous figures to assign resources, it will do so incorrectly. But in Chile’s case, the national disaster that is the 2012 census will have much more serious consequences. At a local level, it calls into question all the INE’s figures, such as inflation and unemployment rates. And internationally, it throws a veil of mistrust over all the country’s data.
Reputation “shattered”
Within Latin America, Chile has traditionally been seen as a trustworthy country with solid institutions, a stable regulatory framework and meticulous national accounting. Its statistics have always been, as far back as most can remember, one of the pillars upon which this reputation of stability was based.
As statisticians well know, statistics require an act of faith or, in the best-case scenario, social consensus. The methodology is defined, the steps carried out, and the result delivered as an approximation accompanied by established margins of error. And society accepts that result because it trusts that proper methodology has been used and the investigations have been carried out in the best way possible. There are inevitably inaccuracies in population figures, unemployment and poverty rates, and inflation, but society agrees to use the figures available because it trusts that as inaccurate as they may be, there are no better ones available.
That social consensus has been shattered in Chile. And, tragically, it was shattered not because the INE tried to alter the statistics to give Chilean President Sebastian Piñera’s government a political advantage — nothing of the sort. Instead, Chile lost its credibility because, in an act of arrogance, INE authorities decided that the methodology used for previous censuses was faulty and changed to what they supposed would be a better one.
But the outcome of the so-called best census in Chile’s history has been a loss of faith in the national statistics, which at the end of the day amounts to a loss of faith in Chile.
To regain its credibility at this stage of the game, the only option left to Chile is to eat some serious humble pie, throw the results of its 2012 census away, and redo it all over again.
Up to 1,000 Ukrainian troops have reportedly surrendered from the Azovstal steel plant in the port of Mariupol, with all sent to a prisoner camp in Russian-controlled territory in Donbas. Ukrainians are hoping for a prisoner exchange, though Moscow may try some for war crimes.
Surrender of defenders from Ukraine's Azov Regiment
Mariupol has fallen. The first 300 of the last Ukrainian troops holding out in the Ukrainian port city were taken early yesterday from the Azovstal steel plant toward the Russian-controlled former penal colony in Olenivka, Donetsk region. By Tuesday night, another column of seven buses, accompanied by Russian troops arrived in Olenivka, with a total of up to 1,000 soldiers reportedly surrendered by Wednesday morning.
Stay up-to-date with the latest on the Russia-Ukraine war, with our exclusive international coverage.
Ukrainians have been calling Tuesday’s events an evacuation, but Russia says it is the capture and surrender of Ukrainian troops, BBC Ukraine reports.
For almost two months, the Azov batallion was holding ground protecting the remaining people in Mariupol, but for them the last choice was simple: die in the bomb shelters protecting the city which is practically gone, or surrender to the Russians. Zelensky gave the order to save their lives after the Russian army made clear there was no chance for the fighters to leave Ukrainian territory. As of Wednesday midday, there is no information on what awaits them.
"We are very fearful about how they will be treated and whether they will be able to survive before any (prisoner) exchange takes place," a sister of one of the Azov fighters told the BBC's Hugo Bachega.
Adviser to the mayor of Mariupol Petro Andryushchenko last week called the colony in Olenivka "a real concentration camp of the 21st century, which Russia has created in the heart of Europe."
Russian legislators have proposed a bill that would prohibit the exchange of prisoners for the defenders of Azovstal, whom they intend instead to accuse of war crimes.
The Investigative Committee of Russia wrote in Twitter that they will "question the surrendered militants who had taken refuge at the Azovstal plant in Mariupol as part of the investigation into criminal cases concerning crimes committed by the Ukrainian regime against the civilian population of Donbas. Russian investigators will identify the nationalists, verify their involvement in crimes committed against civilians, and the information obtained during the interrogations will be compared with other data available in the criminal case files."
The U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War says that Moscow could decide to make a gesture to "spare" Mariupol defenders in order to divert criticism regarding the overall slow pace of the offensive in Donbas. Though ISW suggests that to maintain their narrative that the soldiers in Mariupol were “neo-Nazis,” the Kremlin is more likely to refuse to allow a prisoner exchange.
Morgenavisen Jyllands-Posten (Denmark)
“Mariupol's last defenders have laid down their arms”
La Repubblica (Italy)
“The Moscow-Kiev negotiation conditioned the fate of the soldiers who left Azovstal.”
Vecernji List (Croatia)
Russian Soldier Pleads Guilty In First War Crimes Trial In Kyiv
Vadim Shishimarin
A 21-year-old Russian soldier pleaded guilty Wednesday in the first war crimes trial in Kyiv since the war began. The soldier was accused of shooting an unarmed Ukrainian civilian while he spoke on the phone. Prosecutors allege that the Russian soldier was ordered to shoot so the 62-year-old Ukrainian man would not reveal their location.
Russia denies targeting civilians, but Ukraine says it has evidence of thousands of potential war crimes. Hundreds of bodies and mass graves have been found in areas formerly occupied by Russia. The UK and the US have joined Ukraine in accusing Russia of carrying out war crimes.
Finland And Sweden Formally Apply To NATO
Finland and Sweden have formally submitted their applications to join NATO this morning. "This is a historic moment, which we must seize," NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said during the official ceremony in which the Swedish and Finnish ambassadors to the alliance handed over their application letters.
Both countries remained neutral during the Cold War, especially considering the fact that Finland shares borders with Russia. Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine has, instead, convinced both Nordic countries that NATO protection was necessary.
Turkey’s opposition to Finland and Sweden joining NATO could slow down the ratification process, which may take up to a year.
100,000 Ukrainian Volunteers Now Seeing Actual Combat
From the beginning of the war, men and women lined up in every city and region of Ukraine, seeking to volunteer for the territorial defense associations. These are unprofessional unions of city dwellers who want to defend their homes and cities. But if at the beginning of the war these volunteers were more involved with logistics and building fortifications, now almost all of them are involved in active combat operations on an equal footing with the Ukrainian army.
According to Serhiy Sobko, Chief of Staff of the Territorial Defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, more than 700 additional volunteer formations of territorial communities have been created. Territorial Defense receives both Ukrainian and Western weapons: machine guns, anti-tank systems, grenade launchers, mobile air defense systems.
Kyiv Independent estimate infographic on Russia's combat losses
These are the indicative estimates of Russia\u2019s combat losses as of May 18, according to the Armed Forces of Ukraine.pic.twitter.com/EM0NQ2MRrk
— The Kyiv Independent (@The Kyiv Independent)
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UK Trade Minister Wants To “De-Putinize” The World Economy
Anne-Marie Trevelyan
Salci/ZUMA
British Trade Minister Anne-Marie Trevelyan speaking at Bloomberg conference in London spoke about economic weapons that the UK is employing to aid Ukrainians: “We must de-Putinize the world’s economy […] Both through sanctions, and by cutting off access to the oil revenues that power his war machine.”
Virtual Frontlines: Cyberattacks Raging From Ukraine To Russia To … Costa Rica
A Russian-speaking hacking group carried out a cyberattack against the Costa Rican government, forcing the country to declare a state of emergency. The notorious Conti ransomware gang has claimed responsibility for the attack. "We are determined to overthrow the government by means of a cyber attack, we have already shown you all the strength and power," the group said on its official website. Costa Rica’s tax collection and export systems have been crippled for more than a month.
Conti itself has been the target of ransomware attacks. Conti has announced unequivocal support for Russia, prompting a Ukrainian partner to post about the identities of Conti members. Meanwhile, a Russian multinational cybersecurity firm found a direct link between the uptick in online targeting to the invasion of Ukraine.
The Ukrainian government has welcomed this growth in hacking, as 300,000 people worldwide are using their computers to disrupt Russia’s war effort. One common tactic is to overload Russian websites with junk traffic, forcing them offline.
When the war in Ukraine began and the U.S., UK and EU announced their sanctions, AerCap holdings, the world’s largest owner of jets, had to terminate the leasing of all of its aircraft and engines with Russian airlines.
In response to these sanctions, Russia seized 113 planes and 11 engines from AerCap Holdings causing the company a net loss of $2 billion.
Company executives said the quarter was actually good and they see better times ahead with recovery from the Covid pandemic. CEO Aengus Kelly commented on this loss: “ Across all our business lines we are seeing improving demand, increased utilization of our assets and the improving financial health of our customers.”
On Live TV, Ex Russian Colonel Criticizes Russia’s War Strategy
Retired Russian Army Colonel and military analyst Mikhail Khodarenok broke ranks with the Moscow establishment and leveled severe criticism on live TV of Moscow’s approach to the war in Ukraine.
Speaking on state TV Rossiya’s 60 Minutes talk show, Khodarenok did not question the motivation of the invasion, but offered three key critiques:
1. False information spread in Russia about would-be low morale in the Ukrainian military:
"All this, to put it mildly, does not correspond to reality. They are ready to defend their homeland and intend to fight to the last man. This is an integral part of high combat effectiveness of the army, one of the most important ones."
2. Russia’s complete isolation in the geopolitical arena.
"The most important disadvantage of our military and political position is that we are in complete geopolitical solitude. And practically the whole world is against us, no matter how much we would not like to admit it."
3. Empty threats at neighboring countries
Khodarenok called Russia's "waving missiles" toward Finland "funny" and warned that later those who do not recognize "the reality of history" will be punched on the nose.
Olena Bilozerska has been a sniper for the Ukrainian army for the past nine years. She told Ukrainian newspaper Novoye Vremya about how the enemy's tactics have changed.
Bilozerska is among the 17% of Ukrainian soldiers who are female. She says the most obvious change when it comes to Russian army leaders is in the nature of the commands they give their soldiers: "Now soldiers are treated like cannon fodder [...]. But their sergeants and junior officers lack initiative and are unable to make autonomous decisions."
She tells Novoye Vremya that her thoughts are with the Ukrainian soldiers of Mariupol: "It was absolutely impossible to save Azovstal's defenders by military means. Mariupol can be liberated only as part of a general counteroffensive by the Ukrainian army, which requires lengthy preparation. The only chance Azovstal's defenders had to escape was through diplomacy."
Despite having been in the line of combat for years, Bilozerska says the hardest day so far was on February 24: "It is one thing to fight in Donbas, having a strong rear-guard in Kyiv, and quite another - not to have backup at all and realize that your destiny is somewhere here, not far from your house, to stand to the end, because you cannot be captured, you know. And then, in a couple of days, there was such relief and such pride for the state and the people that now I can survive anything."
Moscow dwellers were pictured queuing in front of McDonald's restaurants in Russia ahead of the U.S. fast-food chain’s leaving the country, in a mirror image of the lines that welcomed its arrival back in 1990.
Earlier this week, McDonald's announced that it was shutting down for good in Russia, marking the first time it has ever left a major global market. The chain is reportedly looking for a local buyer for most of its 850 restaurants across the country, although what will become of the brand’s name, logo and menu is unclear.
An anonymous source within McDonald's in Russia told state-owned news agency TASS that the restaurants were expected to resume working under a new brand, which could happen by mid-June, and would keep the same staff and menu.
Up to 1,000 Ukrainian troops have reportedly surrendered from the Azovstal steel plant in the port of Mariupol, with all sent to a prisoner camp in Russian-controlled territory in Donbas. Ukrainians are hoping for a prisoner exchange, though Moscow may try some for war crimes.
Far from being a unified state, Russia is full of federal subjects — many of which have spawned separatist movements. Moscow, far from Siberia or the Caucasus and focused on Ukraine, is finding it harder to contain them.
Not only strict rules of freedom of movement as part of Zero-COVID policy but also an increase in censorship has raised many questions for the expat population in the megacity of 26 million that had long enjoyed a kind of special status in China as a place of freedom and openness. A recent survey of foreigners in the Chinese megacity found that 48% of respondents said they would leave Shanghai within the next year.
Exploiting space resources and littering it with satellite and other anthropogenic objects is endangering the ecosystem of space, which also damages the earth and its creatures below.
Central to the tragic absurdity of this war is the question of language. Vladimir Putin has repeated that protecting ethnic Russians and the Russian-speaking populations of Ukraine was a driving motivation for his invasion.
Yet one month on, a quick look at the map shows that many of the worst-hit cities are those where Russian is the predominant language: Kharkiv, Odesa, Kherson.
Then there is Mariupol, under siege and symbol of Putin’s cruelty. In the largest city on the Azov Sea, with a population of half a million people, Ukrainians make up slightly less than half of the city's population, and Mariupol's second-largest national ethnicity is Russians. As of 2001, when the last census was conducted, 89.5% of the city's population identified Russian as their mother tongue.
The martyrdom of Mariupol
Between 2018 and 2019, I spent several months in Mariupol. It is a rugged but beautiful city dotted with Soviet-era architecture, featuring wide avenues and hillside parks, and an extensive industrial zone stretching along the shoreline. There was a vibrant youth culture and art scene, with students developing projects to turn their city into a regional cultural center with an international photography festival.
There were also many offices of international NGOs and human rights organizations, a consequence of the fact that Mariupol was the last major city before entering the occupied zone of Donbas. Many natives of the contested regions of Luhansk and Donetsk had moved there, taking jobs in restaurants and hospitals. I had fond memories of the welcoming from locals who were quicker to smile than in some other parts of Ukraine. All of this is gone.
Putin is bombing the very people he has claimed to want to rescue.
According to the latest data from the local authorities, 80% of the port city has been destroyed by Russian bombs, artillery fire and missile attacks, with particularly egregious targeting of civilians, including a maternity hospital, a theater where more than 1,000 people had taken shelter and a school where some 400 others were hiding.
The official civilian death toll of Mariupol is estimated at more than 3,000. There are no language or ethnic-based statistics of the victims, but it’s likely the majority were Russian speakers.
So let’s be clear, Putin is bombing the very people he has claimed to want to rescue.
Putin’s Public Enemy No. 1, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, is a mother-tongue Russian speaker who’d made a successful acting and comedy career in Russian-language broadcasting, having extensively toured Russian cities for years.
Rescuers carry a person injured during a shelling by Russian troops of Kharkiv, northeastern Ukraine.
Yes, the official language of Ukraine is Ukrainian, and a 2019 law aimed to ensure that it is used in public discourse, but no one has ever sought to abolish the Russian language in everyday life. In none of the cities that are now being bombed by the Russian army to supposedly liberate them has the Russian language been suppressed or have the Russian-speaking population been discriminated against.
Sociologist Mikhail Mishchenko explains that studies have found that the vast majority of Ukrainians don’t consider language a political issue. For reasons of history, culture and the similarities of the two languages, Ukraine is effectively a bilingual nation.
"The overwhelming majority of the population speaks both languages, Russian and Ukrainian,” Mishchenko explains. “Those who say they understand Russian poorly and have difficulty communicating in it are just over 4% percent. Approximately the same number of people say the same about Ukrainian.”
In general, there is no problem of communication and understanding. Often there will be conversations where one person speaks Ukrainian, and the other responds in Russian. Geographically, the Russian language is more dominant in the eastern and central parts of Ukraine, and Ukrainian in the west.
A daughter of Kyiv
Like most central Ukrainians I am perfectly bilingual: for me, Ukrainian and Russian are both native languages that I have used since childhood in Kyiv. My generation grew up on Russian rock, post-Soviet cinema, and translations of foreign literature into Russian. I communicate in Russian with my sister, and with my mother and daughter in Ukrainian. I write professionally in three languages: Ukrainian, Russian and English, and can also speak Polish, French, and a bit Japanese. My mother taught me that the more languages I know the more human I am.
At the same time, I am not Russian — nor British or Polish. I am Ukrainian. Ours is a nation with a long history and culture of its own, which has always included a multi-ethnic population: Russians, Belarusians, Moldovans, Crimean Tatars, Bulgarians, Romanians, Hungarians, Poles, Jews, Greeks. We all, they all, have found our place on Ukrainian soil. We speak different languages, pray in different churches, we have different traditions, clothes, and cuisine.
My mother taught me that the more languages I know the more human I am.
Like in other countries, these differences have been the source of conflict in our past. But it is who we are and will always be, and real progress has been made over the past three decades to embrace our multitudes. Our Jewish, Russian-speaking president is the most visible proof of that — and is in fact part of what our soldiers are fighting for.
Many in Moscow were convinced that Russian troops would be welcomed in Ukraine as liberating heroes by Russian speakers. Instead, young soldiers are forced to shoot at people who scream in their native language.
Starving people ina street of Kharkiv in 1933, during the famine
Putin has tried to rally the troops by warning that in Ukraine a “genocide” of ethnic Russians is being carried out by a government that must be “de-nazified.”
These are, of course, words with specific definitions that carry the full weight of history. The Ukrainian people know what genocide is not from books. In my hometown of Kyiv, German soldiers massacred Jews en masse. My grandfather survived the Buchenwald concentration camp, liberated by the U.S. army. My great-grandmother, who died at the age of 95, survived the 1932-33 famine when the Red Army carried out the genocide of the Ukrainian middle class, and her sister disappeared in the camps of Siberia, convicted for defying rationing to try to feed her children during the famine.
On Tuesday, came a notable report of one of the latest civilian deaths in the besieged Russian-speaking city of Kharkiv: a 96-year-old had been killed when shelling hit his apartment building. The victim’s name was Boris Romanchenko; he had survived Buchenwald and two other Nazi concentration camps during World War II. As President Zelensky noted: Hitler didn’t manage to kill him, but Putin did.
Genocide has returned to Ukraine, from Kharkiv to Kherson to Mariupol, as Vladimir Putin had warned. But it is his own genocide against the Russian-speaking population of Ukraine.