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September 22, 2023, Sevastopol, Crimea, Russia: Smoke rises over the Russian Black Sea Fleet headquarters after a Ukrainian missile strike.
Inability to accept losses
In reality, the specific targets struck by cruise missiles — whether it's the Black Sea Fleet headquarters, dry docks, or communication hubs — hold little strategic importance. The presence or absence of commanders or staff also makes scant difference.
The true concern is Russia's inability to intercept cruise missiles flying over northern Crimea and the Black Sea, which challenges the fundamental ambitions of a superpower. Russia, in other words, is now no longer in control across the region.
And yet Russia’s inability to accept losses is exacerbating their problems, as leaders in Moscow stick to the narrative that all is proceeding according to plan, with positive reports neatly filed, to be passed up the chain of command. (Failure to do so can result in the loss of one's pension or an expected promotion.)
Why the Russians are failing
Defending Crimea is, indeed, a complex task, and the Russians are ill-equiped to carry it out. Patrolling the region with MiG-31 combat jets is far from routine. While these aircraft have been upgraded to launch Kinzhal missiles against ground targets, using aircraft for air defense purposes requires skills beyond those of the average Russian pilot.
At the same time, to ensure their survival, the Russians require aircraft specifically designed for Airborne Early Warning and Control (AEW&C) missions. These aircraft play a crucial role in detecting Ukrainian air launch platforms as they approach their firing positions. This advance warning would allow Russia's military leaders to move personnel, seek shelter and take other protective measures.
I am Russian, I will go to the end!
But it’s already too late to implement these measures, the second-largest army in the world appear incapable of taking any decisive action. And the situation is likely to be aggravated for the Russian defense forces when Western F-16s arrive in Ukraine in the coming weeks.
A painful reckoning
The Ukrainian military's strikes on Crimea are part of a war of attrition, raising the question of whether there is anyone within the Russian Black Sea Fleet capable of speaking the truth, of drafting a report stating that the fleet cannot in fact defend its main base.
This situation underscores the price of the false narrative created by the Kremlin regime, devoid of any meaningful critical feedback. While thousands of propagandists confidently proclaim that Russia will swiftly reach Warsaw and Berlin, few seem to consider that even without the U.S. Navy, EU forces possess the capability to launch thousands of Storm Shadow, SCALP EG, or Taurus missiles at Russia.
Dozens of satellites and strategic drones from Sicily are poised for reconnaissance, allowing for precise strikes based on collected data.
It's important to note that this challenge will not affect Vladimir Putin, who will remain in a bunker, or Vladimir Solovyov, the Russian propagandist, who can retreat to his dacha outside of Moscow, protected by Pantsir missile systems.
Instead, it is the individuals who passionately chant, "I am Russian, I will go to the end!" and fervently sign the anthem "Legendary Sevastopol," who will bear the brunt of all these yes-men.
