Coronavirus

Society v. The State: Pandemic Undermines AMLO's Power Grab In Mexico

President López Obrador has failed spectacularly to manage the pandemic and its economic repercussions.

The end of AMLO's oppressive system?
The end of AMLO's oppressive system?
Luis Rubio

-OpEd-

MEXICO CITY — "Before Elvis there was nothing," the singer John Lennon once said. Some might say the same of Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador. For a year and a half following his election in 2018, the president enjoyed enormous leeway to develop programs and forward his priorities. It was a grace period unlike anything Mexico had seen since the 1970s.

And yet, like presidents everywhere, López Obrador, known as AMLO, is facing a sudden and unexpected turn of events that has stopped everything and may ultimately alter everything.

Perhaps the pandemic's biggest impact, and an inevitable one, will be to strengthen society against the state, a trend exacerbated by the government's clumsy failure to fulfill a basic duty to protect the population. The consequences of this change will be seen in coming years and decades, and we may even see Mexican society finally free itself of an oppressive system that has blocked the establishment of a real democracy. Time will tell.

So far, society has not been acting in any concerted or organized fashion. Decisions are being made, rather, in isolation — by firms, families and individuals. It's an unprecedented situation, and it's bound to shape the future.

The immediate challenge must be to deal with the sudden impoverishment of so many Mexicans, as jobs and incomes vanish. This is both an intellectual and practical challenge, and its resolution will decide the nature of the recovery that follows. That is why social initiatives are so important right now, along with efforts by Congress to block the government's push for authoritarian rule, though again, time will tell if they were enough.

Society has not been acting in any concerted or organized fashion.

Many governments in the world anticipated the pandemic's effects, which led them to build up potentially viable responses. That was blatantly not the case in Mexico. Not only did the López Obrador administration deny there was as a crisis, but its actions have also exacerbated, deepened and prolonged it. For a government that touts itself as concerned for the poor it was pathetic.

The combination of a mistaken strategy from the start of this administration — oriented toward imposing decisions on domestic and foreign economic actors — and its lack of foresight and inability to respond to the crisis, will inexorably take the country toward economic contraction. And worse, these will hinder a swift recovery. To this government's distorted vision we may add the intrinsic ills of a political system marked historically by impunity.

Protestors in front of Mexico City's National Palace demanding justice from federal authorities. — Photo: Armando Martinez/El Universal/ZUMA

A scenario marked by recession, unemployment, political crisis and distrust of the government may have political consequences that may be good, or bad. The conditions may strengthen democracy or boost the most radical elements in the president's party, Morena. All vestiges of order may disappear. Crime may increase to unchecked, indiscriminate levels. The government may become more radical both in economics and in its legal initiatives. Social breakdown may prompt more migration. There is no limit to the ways the country might deteriorate.

Instead of applauding society's activism, the president has criticized and fought it.

What can be done? The first question we should all ask ourselves is whether the president will face up to the new reality or keep trying to squeeze it into his own preconceptions. The cost of that conduct will be measured in lives lost, jobs destroyed and in the speed of the recovery.

In the meantime, criminal, political, military and paramilitary forces will try to replace government functions, which should prove enough of a motivation for the government to take us out of this sinkhole. We need this recovery to be via institutional leadership that is effective and suited to the conditions.

Unfortunately the signals emanating from the government say the opposite. Instead of applauding society's activism, the president has criticized and fought it. His hostility to the business world is well known and has historical explanations, though one still wonders: How do you expect to improve the livelihoods of 70% of Mexicans in the age of globalization, without private investment?

His conduct suggests a preference for stressing social and class conflict, without considering its consequences in terms of recession and poverty. Clearly for him, the priority is not growth, the poor, ending corruption or contributing to the country's development. So, what next?

The president and his government have so far lived off the support of a considerable portion of the electorate, which has allowed them not to pay for their enormous mistakes. But the virus is changing that circumstance. Once active government resumes, it will have to give an account of itself, on what really matters. That would be a great opportunity to rectify before it is too late.



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Future

7 Ways The Pandemic May Change The Airline Industry For Good

Will flying be greener? More comfortable? Less frequent? As the world eyes a post-COVID reality, we look at ways the airline industry has been changing through a pandemic that has devastated air travel.

Ready for (a different kind of) takeoff?

Carl-Johan Karlsson

It's hard to overstate the damage the pandemic has had on the airline industry, with global revenues dropping by 40% in 2020 and dozens of airlines around the world filing for bankruptcy. One moment last year when the gravity became particularly apparent was when Asian carriers (in countries with low COVID-19 rates) began offering "flights to nowhere" — starting and ending at the same airport as a way to earn some cash from would-be travelers who missed the in-flight experience.

More than a year later today, experts believe that air traffic won't return to normal levels until 2024.


But beyond the financial woes, the unprecedented slowdown in air travel may bring some silver linings as key aspects of the industry are bound to change once back in full spin, with some longer-term effects on aviation already emerging. Here are some major transformations to expect in the coming years:

Cleaner aviation fuel

The U.S. administration of President Joe Biden and the airline industry recently agreed to the ambitious goal of replacing all jet fuel with sustainable alternatives by 2050. Already in a decade, the U.S. aims to produce three billion gallons of sustainable fuel — about one-tenth of current total use — from waste, plants and other organic matter.

While greening the world's road transport has long been at the top of the climate agenda, aviation is not even included under the Paris Agreement. But with air travel responsible for roughly 12% of all CO2 emissions from transport, and stricter international regulation on the horizon, the industry is increasingly seeking sustainable alternatives to petroleum-based fuel.

Fees imposed on the airline industry should be funneled into a climate fund.

In Germany, state broadcaster Deutsche Welle reports that the world's first factory producing CO2-neutral kerosene recently started operations in the town of Wertle, in Lower Saxony. The plant, for which Lufthansa is set to become the pilot customer, will produce CO2-neutral kerosene through a circular production cycle incorporating sustainable and green energy sources and raw materials. Energy is supplied through wind turbines from the surrounding area, while the fuel's main ingredients are water and waste-generated CO2 coming from a nearby biogas plant.

Farther north, Norwegian Air Shuttle has recently submitted a recommendation to the government that fees imposed on the airline industry should be funneled into a climate fund aimed at developing cleaner aviation fuel, according to Norwegian news site E24. The airline also suggested that the government significantly reduce the tax burden on the industry over a longer period to allow airlines to recover from the pandemic.

Black-and-white photo of an ariplane shot from below flying across the sky and leaving condensation trails

High-flying ambitions for the sector

Joel & Jasmin Førestbird

Hydrogen and electrification

Some airline manufacturers are betting on hydrogen, with research suggesting that the abundant resource has the potential to match the flight distances and payload of a current fossil-fuel aircraft. If derived from renewable resources like sun and wind power, hydrogen — with an energy-density almost three times that of gasoline or diesel — could work as a fully sustainable aviation fuel that emits only water.

One example comes out of California, where fuel-cell specialist HyPoint has entered a partnership with Pennsylvania-based Piasecki Aircraft Corporation to manufacture 650-kilowatt hydrogen fuel cell systems for aircrafts. According to HyPoint, the system — scheduled for commercial availability product by 2025 — will have four times the energy density of existing lithium-ion batteries and double the specific power of existing hydrogen fuel-cell systems.

Meanwhile, Rolls-Royce is looking to smash the speed record of electrical flights with a newly designed 23-foot-long model. Christened the Spirit of Innovation, the small plane took off for the first time earlier this month and successfully managed a 15-minute long test flight. However, the company has announced plans to fly the machine faster than 300 mph (480 km/h) before the year is out, and also to sell similar propulsion systems to companies developing electrical air taxis or small commuter planes.

New aircraft designs

Airlines are also upgrading aircraft design to become more eco-friendly. Air France just received its first upgrade of a single-aisle, medium-haul aircraft in 33 years. Fleet director Nicolas Bertrand told French daily Les Echos that the new A220 — that will replace the old A320 model — will reduce operating costs by 10%, fuel consumption and CO2 emissions by 20% and noise footprint by 34%.

International first class will be very nearly a thing of the past.

The pandemic has also ushered in a new era of consumer demand where privacy and personal space is put above luxury. The retirement of older aircraft caused by COVID-19 means that international first class — already in steady decline over the last decades — will be very nearly a thing of the past. Instead, airplane manufacturers around the world (including Delta, China Eastern, JetBlue, British Airways and Shanghai Airlines) are betting on a new generation of super-business minisuites where passengers have a privacy door. The idea, which was introduced by Qatar Airways in 2017, is to offer more personal space than in regular business class but without the lavishness of first class.

Aerial view of Rome's Fiumicino airport

Aerial view of Rome's Fiumicino airport

commons.wikimedia.org

Hygiene rankings  

Rome's Fiumicino Airport has become the first in the world to earn "the COVID-19 5-Star Airport Rating" from Skytrax, an international airline and airport review and ranking site, Italian daily La Repubblica reports. Skytrax, which publishes a yearly annual ranking of the world's best airports and issues the World Airport Awards, this year created a second list to specifically call out airports with the best health and hygiene standards.

Smoother check-in

​The pandemic has also accelerated the shift towards contactless traveling, with more airports harnessing the power of biometrics — such as facial recognition or fever screening — to reduce touchpoints and human contact. Similar technology can also be used to more efficiently scan physical objects, such as explosive detection. Ultimately, passengers will be able to "check-in" and go through a security screening anywhere at the airports, removing queues and bottlenecks.

Data privacy issues

​However, as pointed out in Canadian publication The Lawyer's Daily, increased use of AI and biometrics also means increased privacy concerns. For example, health and hygiene measures like digital vaccine passports also mean that airports can collect data on who has been vaccinated and the type of vaccine used.

Photo of planes at Auckland airport, New Zealand

Auckland Airport, New Zealand

Douglas Bagg

The billion-dollar question: Will we fly less?

At the end of the day, even with all these (mostly positive) changes that we've seen take shape over the past 18 months, the industry faces major uncertainty about whether air travel will ever return to the pre-COVID levels. Not only are people wary about being in crowded and closed airplanes, but the worth of long-distance business travel in particular is being questioned as many have seen that meetings can function remotely, via Zoom and other online apps.

Trying to forecast the future, experts point to the years following the 9/11 terrorist attacks as at least a partial blueprint for what a recovery might look like in the years ahead. Twenty years ago, as passenger enthusiasm for flying waned amid security fears following the attacks, airlines were forced to cancel flights and put planes into storage.

40% of Swedes intend to travel less

According to McKinsey, leisure trips and visits to family and friends rebounded faster than business flights, which took four years to return to pre-crisis levels in the UK. This time too, business travel is expected to lag, with the consulting firm estimating only 80% recovery of pre-pandemic levels by 2024.

But the COVID-19 crisis also came at a time when passengers were already rethinking their travel habits due to climate concerns, while worldwide lockdowns have ushered in a new era of remote working. In Sweden, a survey by the country's largest research company shows that 40% of the population intend to travel less even after the pandemic ends. Similarly in the UK, nearly 60% of adults said during the spring they intended to fly less after being vaccinated against COVID-19 — with climate change cited as a top reason for people wanting to reduce their number of flights, according to research by the University of Bristol.

At the same time, major companies are increasingly forced to face the music of the environmental movement, with several corporations rolling out climate targets over the last few years. Today, five of the 10 biggest buyers of corporate air travel in the US are technology companies: Amazon, IBM, Google, Apple and Microsoft, according to Taipei Times, all of which have set individual targets for environmental stewardship. As such, the era of flying across the Atlantic for a two-hour executive meeting is likely in its dying days.

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