When the world gets closer.

We help you see farther.

Sign up to our expressly international daily newsletter.

CLARIN

Reading China's Financial Crisis In Buenos Aires

China's recent currency devaluations have set off a series of economic consequences, both intended and otherwise. And the reach is more global than ever.

At the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange (BCBA)
At the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange (BCBA)
Julio Sevares

-Analysis-

BUENOS AIRES — In early August, China's Central Bank began to change the way it sets exchange rates for the Chinese currency, from one based on estimates of forex supply and demand to one that also factors in interbank market transactions and other currency rates. The authorities said the change led "market forces" to cause a slide in the RMB, or yuan.

After several years of rate stability between the U.S. dollar and the RMB, the Chinese currency has fallen to lowest level against the dollar since 2011. Even as signs point to a possible implosion of China's economy, Chinese authorities have explained that the currency devaluation was meant in part to satisfy the International Monetary Fund's demands that China take greater account of currency market laws.

In November, the IMF is set to make its five-year revision of the basket of currencies making up its Special Drawing Rights (SDR) fund. China wants to make RMB a convertible currency and included in the SDR basket. The IMF argues it doesn't qualify yet since the state, and not the market, continues to determine RMB value. But it did express satisfaction at the Central Bank's alteration of exchange criteria, which has improved RMB's chances of entering the SDR basket.

But as we continue to see, the markets have not been kind, and the devaluation caused concern — if not outright panic. It's hard to contemplate a central bank using an abrupt devaluation as a means of enhancing the prestige and solidity of its currency.

The commercial explanation

Another view of the devaluation is that the Chinese government wants to stimulate exports and related economic activities. Chinese exports have shown signs of weakness in recent months (falling 8% in July year-on-year, twice as much as authorities had anticipated), and that affects economic growth.

Despite faltering exports, China still has a strong trade surplus, though its current account (including exports and imports of services) has passed from positive to neutral and even a slight deficit, because an increase in service costs especially in tourism.

Its capital account also hovers between negative and neutral, as capital going out through the foreign investments of Chinese companies now exceeds incoming foreign investments.

The Chinese Central Bank has so far reacted by supplying Chinese people and companies with liquidity, of which it has vast reserves. Devaluation will reduce demand for currencies while boosting their inflow through exports.

Regarding the economy, the Central Bank puts China's growth rate at an annual 7%, close to government objectives and to levels needed to sustain employment and social stability, which underpin the legitimacy of China's authoritarian government.

We should recall that Chinese stock markets — particularly the Shanghai stock market, one of the world's biggest — are tanking, with the sudden popping of a speculative stock bubble fueled this year by Chinese authorities themselves.

The market drop in China, the world's No. 2 economy, has prompted concerns about its impact around the world, since the previous stock inflation was financed by debt among private investors and losses can affect their solvency and market confidence more generally.

All this is happening as the financial sector's internal debts have reached 200% of GDP, double the rate of developed countries, and amid some skepticism on the solidity of the Chinese financial system and the government's ability to face these kinds of problems.

Exports paradox

The paradox in wanting to boost exports through devaluation is that just two years ago, the Chinese government laid out plans to move away from growth that's based primarily on exports and investment and more toward growth sustained by domestic consumption and investments abroad, which have grown.

Devaluation on the part of the world's premier exporter (China) may boost exports, but it could also cripple the purchasing power of China's customers. Indeed, the effects of devaluation on trade have yet to be determined — especially if they create counter-devaluations that will in turn affect international demand.

Labor costs

RMB devaluation will cut the cost of Chinese labor compared with competitors (Taiwan, Japan, United States or South Korea).

It will also discourage Chinese capitalists from moving operations or manufacturing to other Asian countries with cheaper labor like Vietnam and Myanmar, and possibly even further afield given the rising labor costs of recent years.

RMB internationalization

The devaluation can also affect the course of RMB's more long-term ambitions of international integration. In recent years China had promoted the international use of its money by various means, including trade. Currently 22% of China's external trade is undertaken in RMB, and the percentage is greater in trade with Asian partners.

Another means was swap agreements between its central bank and those of other states. In 2013, it also opened up pilot free zones in Shanghai and other cities wherein local and foreign firms are permitted to pay specific transactions in RMB, within increasingly higher limits.

The government has also allowed trading in RMB in some markets including London. These channels effectively doubled RMB presence in world markets last year. Yet payments in RMB constitute just 2% of all payments, which is far from the amounts of payments made in dollars, euros or yen.

Commodity impact

Raw materials are one sector RMB devaluation has hit hardest. The market was already faltering for weakened demand in China and amid the very weak recovery seen in the industrialized economies that constitute the main segment of global demand.

RMB devaluation will thus impact commodities exporters, like Argentina, while favoring its customers — like China.

But it could harm China's own investment projects, which are mostly, directly or indirectly, linked to the extraction and transportation of raw materials back to China: oil in Argentina and Venezuela, minerals in Peru and Brazil, or building railways in Brazil and Argentina.

You've reached your monthly limit of free articles.
To read the full article, please subscribe.
Get unlimited access. Support Worldcrunch's unique mission:
  • Exclusive coverage from the world's top sources, in English for the first time.
  • Insights from the widest range of perspectives, languages and countries
  • $2.90/month or $19.90/year. No hidden charges. Cancel anytime.
Already a subscriber? Log in

When the world gets closer, we help you see farther

Sign up to our expressly international daily newsletter!
In The News

War In Ukraine, Day 224: Russia Says U.S. Is Now "A Participant Of The Conflict"

The warning comes after Washington's latest military aid package to Ukraine.

In Stavropol, Russia

Anna Akage, Sophia Constantino, Jeff Israely and Bertrand Hauger

Washington’s new $625 military aid package to Kyiv has increased the likelihood of a direct military clash between the Russia and the West, warned Anatoly Antonov, Moscow’s ambassador to the U.S.

"We perceive this as an immediate threat to the strategic interests of our country," Antonov said early Wednesday via a post on Telegram. "The supply of military products by the U.S. and its allies not only entails protracted bloodshed and new casualties, but also increases the danger of a direct military clash between Russia and Western countries.” Antonov said the U.S. is now considered a “participant of the conflict.”

Stay up-to-date with the latest on the Russia-Ukraine war, with our exclusive international coverage.

Sign up to our free daily newsletter.

The United States announced this week that it is sending $625 million to Ukraine in additional weaponry, including High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) launchers.

U.S. President Joe Biden spoke Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Tuesday, emphasizing Washington’s continued support for Kyiv “as it defends itself from Russian aggression for as long as it takes,” a statement from the White House said.

Keep reading...Show less

When the world gets closer, we help you see farther

Sign up to our expressly international daily newsletter!
You've reached your monthly limit of free articles.
To read the full article, please subscribe.
Get unlimited access. Support Worldcrunch's unique mission:
  • Exclusive coverage from the world's top sources, in English for the first time.
  • Insights from the widest range of perspectives, languages and countries
  • $2.90/month or $19.90/year. No hidden charges. Cancel anytime.
Already a subscriber? Log in
THE LATEST
FOCUS
TRENDING TOPICS

Central to the tragic absurdity of this war is the question of language. Vladimir Putin has repeated that protecting ethnic Russians and the Russian-speaking populations of Ukraine was a driving motivation for his invasion.

Yet one month on, a quick look at the map shows that many of the worst-hit cities are those where Russian is the predominant language: Kharkiv, Odesa, Kherson.

Watch VideoShow less
MOST READ