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Construction Manager Jens Schüenberg stands over one of the largest inner-city construction sites in Germany.
Up until recently, such success stories were almost taken for granted. All across Germany, investors keen to see a return on their money, their funds boosted by cheap financing, were sinking more and more money into ambitious construction projects. Demand sometimes seemed almost limitless. But now higher building costs and interest rates have brought an end to that wave of euphoria.
That could spell bigger problems for some developers and investors. One victim of more straitened financial circumstances is Dusseldorf-based Centrum Gruppe, which was behind major development projects such as “Kudamm Eck” in Berlin. In July, the company submitted a number of restructuring applications to the insolvency court, saying that take-up for office space rental had fallen significantly and there was no new business on the horizon.
Andreas Trump from the real estate consultancy Colliers agrees that the market has “slowed down considerably”. In the first half of the year, take-up across the office space rental market in the seven largest cities in Germany was around 1.1 million square meters – about a third less than in the same period the previous year, he says.
Market bottoming out
At the time, companies were reluctant to make decisions about locations or expansion plans. Trump believes the market may be bottoming out, but also that it is becoming “more polarized”. The offices most likely to be standing empty are those located on the outskirts of cities, as well as older buildings that fall well below modern expectations around environmental standards.
International realtors JLL say that these kinds of buildings are no longer very marketable. Stephan Leimbach, regional director for JLL Germany, says there has been a significant drop in interest in locations on the outskirts, rather than in the city center. “The market is becoming more differentiated,” he says.
However, in the outskirts, demand is significantly lower.
“So the proportion of offices standing empty across all areas of Frankfurt am Main is high, but in the center it is no more than 3 or 4%. However, in the outskirts, demand is significantly lower.” Even in “Gateway Gardens”, the office complex near the airport, which only opened a few years ago with great pomp and ceremony, almost a third of the offices are now standing empty.
Fiercer competition, fewer takers
Around a million square meters of office space in Frankfurt are currently not being rented – and the competition to rent out space looks set to become even fiercer. According to real estate portal Skyline Atlas, there are no less than 24 tower blocks currently under construction, with many more in the pipeline.
At the same time, for some years now, the city’s most important industry has not been growing. “For many decades, Frankfurt was a major location for banks and financial services,” says Sven Carstensen, a member of the executive board at real estate consultants Bulwiengesa. “Having such a high concentration of businesses in one industry becomes a problem if that industry goes into decline.” The cuts to office space have already been “enormous”.
The wave of empty offices could also spread to other locations. According to JLL, in Berlin there are currently around 1.5 million square meters of office space under construction, with these buildings designed to offer a home to the start-ups based in the city – but investors are also backing out of financing start-ups in increasing numbers.
Ulrich Höller, managing partner at ABG Real Estate Group, recently predicted that the office space market as a whole could shrink by around 20 percent. This prediction seems to be supported by the continuing popularity of working from home. Because companies have usually signed long-term leases, their reduced need for office space has gradually become more and more clear.
In view of the changing environment, investors are currently reluctant to flash the cash. “The change in interest rates is affecting their assessments of the financial feasibility of buying and selling buildings, as well as investing in construction projects,” says Michael Rinas from consultancy firm Mazars.
Construction work is taking place on the building site for the ''Four'' project. One of the largest inner-city construction sites in Germany is located in the middle of Frankfurt.
Optimism in a tough market
For some banks, the current situation could lead to a serious problem. “Especially when they have been financing projects that don’t have a significant equity investment from the developers,” says Rinas. That could create cluster risks, which not every bank would be able to absorb.
Filip Kurkowski from legal advisers Ashurst estimates that another group of investors could soon come under pressure, because banks often only financed buildings up to a maximum of 60% of the building’s value.
Higher sums often came from so-called credit funds, whose business has increased significantly in recent years. “Some acted very aggressively, and now they are running into problems,” says Kurkowski.
That is partly because the value of buildings in less desirable locations is dropping. Financing that was expiring is now mostly being extended by one or two years, but sometimes it has to be partially paid back. “Normally, no one benefits from bankruptcy, as the bank or fund, where possible, usually has to take on the building itself,” says Kurkowski.
We are creating incentives to tempt people back into the office.
For Frankfurt-based developer Martínez, however, these factors are no reason to be pessimistic. “I am optimistic about Frankfurt’s future. As a location, it is popular with highly professional industries and investors,” he says. While it is true that there has been a lot of construction in the last few years, there is also always movement and companies that are looking for modern city offices.
He says they are taking into account the new popularity of working from home. “We are creating incentives to tempt people back into the office,” says Martínez. Alongside ensuring the space is used in the best way, that also includes factors such as better air quality.
Higher interest rates and building costs may lead to higher rents, but companies accept this when offices are equipped accordingly, says Martínez. Even in the most sought-after locations in Frankfurt, he says rental prices are still a long way off their historic peak.
So on it goes. Martínez and his colleagues are already working hard on two major new projects, called “Nion” and “Kaia”. They are tower blocks – for offices.
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