A war that's here to stay
There can be no doubt that the war is here to stay. Firstly, because the Ukrainian counteroffensive has so far failed to radically alter the balance of power on the ground. Autumn will slow down the movement of tanks and heavy equipment. Russian and Ukrainian positions are therefore likely to remain static for some time to come.
In this context, any change in Western support for Ukraine could have major consequences. Indeed, it was Vladimir Putin's initial calculation to bank on divisions or "fatigue" among Ukraine's supporters.
So far, this has not happened, but the master of the Kremlin has not given up hope that recent cracks could begin to deepen.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky presents military awards to heroes during the celebration of the Day of Defenders of Ukraine at the Kyiv Fortress on Sunday
Ukraine Presidency/ZUMA
Eyes on Washington
There was the crisis with Poland, which showed that even a country so committed to supporting Ukraine could, for good or bad reasons, still change course. That was followed a few days later by the victory in Slovakia of a candidate who campaigned on ending military aid to Ukraine.
But there's also what's happening in the United States, with the rise of a sentiment opposed to military aid to Ukraine in the Republican ranks. The surprise came in the form of the compromise negotiated over the weekend between the White House and Republicans to allow government funding to continue and avoid a shutdown — the price to pay for the deal was the postponement of $6 billion in aid to Ukraine.
On Monday, Joe Biden also sought to reassure Kyiv, as did the Europeans, that vital aid to Ukraine would continue. But it's clear that this support is conditional on the outcome of next year's U.S .election, and on possible political changes in Europe.
All this was well worth a trip to Kyiv: yes, to reassure ourselves, and others, that the pro-Ukraine coalition is not changing course.
From Your Site Articles
Related Articles Around the Web
Keep reading...Show less