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Germany

German Economists Take Dim View Of Merkel Migrant Policy

Refugees at the Austrian/German border
Refugees at the Austrian/German border

BERLIN — Forty percent of economics professors surveyed in Germany say they expect severe drawbacks to the country's open-door refugee policy, and only 23% see immigration as a source of opportunities, a new survey shows.

The joint research by Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung and the Munich-based Ifo Institute for Economic Research of 220 economists professors also shows that 56% of them believe it's necessary to lower the minimum wage to better integrate asylum seekers with low qualifications, though 37% reject that idea. An overwhelming majority of the economists say they want stronger protection of the Schengen area borders. At the same time, they warn of closing national borders temporarily, which is costly.

When asked about the best approach for financing accommodation, provisions and support for refugees, 45% of the economists say the costs should be covered with new indebtedness, and 36% say it should be financed with tax increases.

A minority of respondents mention options such as reducing international payment transactions, implementing a higher retirement age (22%) or reducing other social spending (21%). Others (16%) advocate other saving measures or household reallocations.

The professors regard Germany's immigration policy particularly critically when comparing it to other countries. Many believe the British and French approaches seem smarter and less problematic in the long run. Clear winners are Canada and Australia, whose immigration policies demand asylum seekers to meet certain criteria.

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FOCUS: Russia-Ukraine War

Finally Time For Negotiations? Russia And Ukraine Have The Exact Same Answer

The war in Ukraine appears to have reached a stalemate, with neither side able to make significant progress on the battlefield. A number of Western experts and politicians are now pushing for negotiations. But the irreconcilable positions of both the Russian and Ukrainian sides make such negotiations tricky, if not impossible.

photo of : Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, left, presents a battle flag to a soldier as he kisses it

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky presents a battle flag to a soldier at the Kyiv Fortress, October 1, 2023.

Ukraine Presidency/Ukrainian Pre/Planet Pix via ZUMA
Yuri Fedorov

-Analysis-

The Russian-Ukrainian war appears to have reached a strategic impasse — a veritable stalemate. Neither side is in a position at this point to achieve a fundamental change on the ground in their favor. Inevitably, this has triggered no shortage of analysts and politicians saying it's time for negotiations.

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These conversations especially intensified after the results of the summer-autumn counteroffensive were analyzed by the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Valerii Zaluzhny, with not very optimistic details.

Though there are advances of the Ukrainian army, it is mostly “stuck in minefields under attacks from Russian artillery and drones,” and there is a increasing prospect of trench warfare that “could drag on for years and exhaust the Ukrainian state.”

Zaluzhny concluded: “Russia should not be underestimated. It suffered heavy losses and used up a lot of ammunition, but it will have an advantage in weapons, equipment, missiles and ammunition for a long time," he said. "Our NATO partners are also dramatically increasing their production capacity, but this requires at least a year, and in some cases, such as aircraft and control systems, two years.”

For the Ukrainian army to truly succeed, it needs air superiority, highly effective electronic and counter-battery warfare, new technologies for mining and crossing minefields, and the ability to mobilize and train more reserves.

China and most countries of the so-called global South have expressed their support for negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. Meanwhile in the West, certain influential voices are pushing for negotiations, guided by a purely pragmatic principle that if military victory is impossible, it is necessary to move on to diplomacy.

The position of the allies is crucial: Ukraine’s ability to fight a long war of attrition and eventually change the situation at the front in its favor depends on the military, economic and political support of the West. And this support, at least on the scale necessary for victory, is not guaranteed.

Still, the question of negotiations is no less complicated, as the positions of Russia and Ukraine today are so irreconcilable that it is difficult to imagine productive negotiations.

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