How a drone strike inside Iran exposes the regime's vulnerability — on all fronts
It is still not clear what was the exact target of an attack by three armed drones Saturday night on an arms factory in central Iran. But it comes as Tehran authorities appear increasingly vulnerable to both its foreign and domestic enemies, with more attacks increasingly likely. Analysis by French journalist and foreign affairs commentator Pierre Haski
It's the kind of incident that momentarily reveals the shadow wars that are part of the Middle East. No one has claimed responsibility for the attack by three armed drones Saturday night on an arms factory complex north of Isfahan in central Iran.
But the explosion was so strong that it set off a small earthquake. Iranian authorities have played down the damage, as we might expect, and claim to have shot down the drones.
Nevertheless, three armed drones reaching the center of Iran, buzzing right up to weapons factories, is anything but ordinary in light of recent events. Iran is at the crossroads of several crises: from the war in Ukraine where it's been supplying drones to Russia to its nuclear development arriving at the moment of truth; from regional wars of influence to the anti-government uprising of Iranian youth.
That leaves us spoiled for choice when it comes to possible interpretations of this act of war against Iran, which likely is a precursor to plenty of others to follow.
Iranian authorities, in their comments, blame the United States and Israel for the aggression. These are the two usual suspects for Tehran, and it is not surprising that they are at the top of the list.
The U.S. press reports that Israel was responsible for this attack, the first against Iran since Benjamin Netanyahu's return to office with a far-right coalition. According to The New York Times, it was the Mossad, Israel's secret service, that carried out the operation.
Nevertheless, a key question remains: what exactly was the target? Was it related to arms supplies to Russia? Or the Iranian nuclear program? Both scenarios are possible.
The West has condemned the supply of Iranian drones to Russia, which is used to target Ukrainian infrastructure. At the end of December, The New York Times reported that the Biden administration was considering limiting Iran's ability to assist the Russian war effort.
But Israel, sensitive to its relations with Russia, has no reason to take such risks for a conflict in which the Jewish state has refused to get involved.
The Iranian nuclear program is the other explosive possibility. European and American efforts to revive the nuclear deal that was broken during Donald Trump's administration have failed. For months now, there have been no real negotiations, and Iran's centrifuges have been running at full speed, bringing Iran closer every day to its ability to produce a nuclear weapon. Israel is vehemently opposed to this program as it is to other Iranian weapon programs, such as missile production, which it believes is a direct threat to its security.
Yet the disparate issues, ever more, blend into one. Iran is increasingly seen as a kind of besieged fortress, with a regime that has hardened ideologically as its legitimacy grows weaker.
The scale of the uprising led by Iranian women has seriously worried the leaders of the Islamic Republic: they have opted for repression, with hundreds of deaths that have reduced the number of demonstrations but not the popular discontent.
This internal hardening is also noticeable on the outside. And now, we see that the alternative is the risk of direct confrontation. The drones in Isfahan are arguably only a foretaste of what’s to come.
— Pierre Haski / France Inter
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• China claims COVID wave is ending as economy rebounds: China’s wave of COVID-19 is “coming to an end”, health officials have claimed following the lunar new year holiday period ending with no new surge in infections. The Chinese government released figures on Tuesday showing a major rise in tourism and hospitality activity compared to the same time last year as part of what the International Monetary Fund says is part of a broader economic rebound that would bold well for the global economy.
• Pakistan death toll rises in mosque blast: The death toll has risen to 92 after a suicide bombing Monday at a mosque in the city of Peshawar, Pakistan. Rescue operations continue, with nine people pulled alive from the rubble so far.
• Bolsonaro seeks U.S. tourist visa: Former Brazil President Jair Bolsonaro has applied for a six-month tourist visa to remain in the United States despite calls for any U.S. visas held by Bolsonaro to be revoked after recent violent protests in Brazil. The former President will remain in the U.S. while his application is pending.
• U.S. stops granting export licenses for China's Huawei: The Biden administration has stopped approving licenses for U.S. companies to export most items to China's technology company Huawei. Though it had faced U.S. export restrictions over the past several years, the U.S. Department of Commerce had granted licenses for some American firms to sell certain goods to the company, which is now expected to cease.
• France hit with second strike: A second nationwide strike has disrupted French electricity production, public transport and schools as workers protested against the government's plans to raise the retirement age.
• A bear on Mars: A camera on NASA's Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter snapped a photo of a formation in the shape of the face of a bear. Two beady eyes are formed by two craters and a hill with a "V-shaped collapse structure" resembles a snout while a "circular fracture pattern" outlines the head.
Peruvian daily El Comercio reports on Peru’s Congress resuming debate Tuesday on a bill to move forward elections after lawmakers failed to reach an agreement. The move aims at ending the ongoing anti-government protests which have left at least dozens dead and resolve Peru’s political crisis that started when president Pedro Castillo was arrested and removed from office last December. The daily also features a photograph of the country’s army and national police which have freed the Panamericana Sur highway, ending an 11-day blockade.
бункерного деда
A leak of the source code repository of Yandex Search, Russia’s largest search engine, has revealed that the company censors results for pictures and videos that feature Russian President Vladimir Putin and Z symbols alongside unflattering terms or expressions, independent Russian news website Meduza reports. One of the mostly widely censored monikers for Putin is “bunker grandfather” (бункерный дед), a reference to the now-70-year-old leader’s hunkering down during the past 11 months of war.
It's a golden era for Russia-Turkey relations — just look at the numbers
On the diplomatic and political level, no world leader speaks more regularly with Vladimir Putin than his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. But the growing closeness of Russia and Turkey can also be measured in the economic data. And the 2022 numbers are stunning, reports Aytug Özçolak in independent online Turkish news site Diken.
🇷🇺🇹🇷 Ankara has committed billions of dollars to buy the Russian S-400 surface-to-air missile system, and contracted with Russia to build Turkey's first nuclear power plant. The countries’ foreign policies are also becoming increasingly aligned. But the depth of this relationship goes much further. Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan speaks to Russian President Vladimir Putin more than any other leader: 16 times in 2022, and 11 times in 2021.
⛴️💰 But no less important is the way the two countries are increasingly tied together by commerce. In 2015, China was the number one source of exports to Turkey, having shipped $24.8 billion of goods to Turkey that year, followed by Germany at $21.3 billion and Russia at $20.3 billion. This ranking remained unchanged for the next three years, until Russia took a narrow lead in 2018 and 2019. China returned to the top in 2020 and 2021, but in 2022, Russia took first place by a long shot: $54.3 billion.
🏠 Finally, let’s check the real estate market. Previously, people from Middle Eastern countries were the top buyers of housing in Turkey — in particular Iraq, Saudi Arabia and Iran. But that changed in 2022, when there were more than twice as many Russian buyers as Iranians. Russians bought three times as many properties in Turkey in 2022 compared to the previous year. After taking first or second place for years, Iraqis are now in third place while Iranians, among the top five since 2015, are sitting in second, behind Russia.
➡️ Read more on Worldcrunch.com
+93%
The number of endangered rhinos poached in Namibia reached an all-time high last year, with 87 animals (61 black and 26 white rhinos) compared with 45 in 2021 — a 93% increase. Most of the rhinos were found in Etosha, Namibia’s largest park.
Rescue teams are scrambling to extract people trapped in the rubble after a suicide bombing struck a mosque in the city of Peshawar in Pakistan. The death toll of the attack, one of Pakistan's bloodiest in years, has risen to 92. — Photo: PPI/ZUMA
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