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Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the G20 Summit in New Delhi on Sept. 9
Expect Modi to be hailed
In theory, this ought to be a major embarrassment for Modi. Western media headlines will not be flattering for a few days but he is bound to weather this. In fact, the altercation with Canada is likely to serve him politically well at home.
This is because Nijjar, the Sikh leader who was killed, is accused of being a terrorist by India. New Delhi claims that he was the mastermind of the separatist militant group, Khalistan Tiger Force. Nijjar was an accused in several terrorist cases and named in an Interpol notice as a “key conspirator” in a 2007 bombing of a cinema in Punjab.
Modi gains from this because his base has a tendency to celebrate aggressive initiatives against adversaries. Modi’s fans were jubilant when the Indian Air Force conducted airstrikes in the Pakistani territory after the terrorist attack in Pulwama in 2019. The alleged act of organising a terrorist’s assassination in a foreign land would seem quite redolent of Mossad’s ways, which Modi’s fans adore. Expect Modi to be hailed, those involved to become heroes, and perhaps a movie script may follow.
The Indian media will explain this away as Trudeau pandering to the Sikh vote in Canada. Trudeau’s move may not be bereft of political calculation; he may also be caught between the findings of the Canadian law enforcement – that he would have to act on – and the official need to maintain ties with India.
The U.S. and Australia expressed “deep concern” about the allegation.
From Canada’s point of view, the Modi government did transgress established norms between political elites. There are processes about dealing with terrorists residing in other countries. Trudeau’s view would be that you just don’t take out people if those processes do not work for you. There are rules to follow and colleagues in the governing class do not create domestic political situations and problems for each other.
That said this controversy should make no difference to the West’s public affirmation of Modi, however indignant they may be in private. Its leaders have been perfectly happy to deal with him and consume his platitudes about democracy, so long as he buys their weapons and provides market access. And this is reflected in their reaction to Trudeau’s move. The U.S. and Australia expressed “deep concern” about the allegation, while the UK Foreign Secretary James Cleverly did not name India in his tweet on the matter.
TheWashington Postreported that Canada’s allies refused to join Ottawa in publicly condemning the murder.
Unwanted attention
However, this controversy will not be without its costs and consequences for Indian immigrants more broadly. Around 18 million Indians currently live abroad; over 210,000 of them took permanent residency in Canada in 2021 and 2022.
This kind of a story brings unwanted attention on Indians living abroad – as any scrutiny into the activities of a foreign government on home soil is bound to bring along a measure of focus on the diaspora, as Chinese nationals living in Western countries know very well.
Trudeau noted in his statement that his country “was working closely and coordinating with [its] allies on this very serious matter.” Canada is a signatory to the Five Eyes intelligence sharing agreement along with the U.S., the UK, Australia and New Zealand – and it is not inconceivable that law enforcement authorities in these countries will be together keeping an eye on organised diaspora activity and its links to Indian parties and government in the light of dramatic developments like these.
Western governments will not be oblivious to the growing right-wing activism among the diaspora and the efforts of the BJP and the Modi government to harness that energy for political support and to stave off criticism of India.
There have been several unsavory incidents in recent times involving Indian-origin immigrants.
The West can arguably live with a measure of diaspora mobilization but not entirely look away when it is disrupting civil peace and the social climate in their own countries.
There have been, to be sure, several unsavory incidents in recent times involving Indian-origin immigrants. There were bulldozers at a parade in New Jersey that symbolically supported the demolition of Muslim homes in India by the BJP government. There were violent communal clashes in Leicester, the UK, last year. There were Sikh-Hindu clashes in Sydney this year. And reports have emerged of findings by police in Queensland about the defacement of Hindu temples in Australia.
Foreign governments will be keen to assess if such incidents develop organically or were provoked by foreign actors.
Intensified Sikh-Hindu schism
Trudeau’s statement is likely to intensify the divide among various Indian-origin diaspora groups. Sikh and other minority groups will organise against Hindu nationalist organisations and pressure foreign governments to act against them – the Hindu Right will counter-mobilise and lobby. All concerned will be in the crosshairs of Western bureaucratic interest and regulation. If Indians were to bring their domestic politics and divisions into other countries, it is only natural that governments of those lands would be more engaged in their surveillance of diaspora communities.
The Indian middle class can scarcely afford to be drawn into unhelpful transnational political projects, especially when just about every Western country is seeing anti-immigrant opinion on the rise.
Indians are largely known abroad for quietly getting on with their migrant lives. Importing illiberal norms and methods and reshaping the political cultures of host countries in undesirable ways is bound to provoke anti-immigrant sentiment that Indians have managed to avoid so far.
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